A fuzzy classification technique for predicting species' distributions: applications using invasive alien plants and indigenous insects
- Robertson, Mark P, Villet, Martin H, Palmer, Anthony R
- Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Villet, Martin H , Palmer, Anthony R
- Date: 2004
- Language: English
- Type: text , Article
- Identifier: vital:6897 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011659 , http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1366-9516.2004.00108.x
- Description: A new predictive modelling technique called the fuzzy envelope model (FEM) is introduced. The technique can be used to predict potential distributions of organisms using presence-only locality records and a set of environmental predictor variables. FEM uses fuzzy logic to classify a set of predictor variable maps based on the values associated with presence records and combines the results to produce a potential distribution map for a target species. This technique represents several refinements of the envelope approach used in the BIOCLIM modelling package. These refinements are related to the way in which FEMs deal with uncertainty, the way in which this uncertainty is represented in the resultant potential distribution maps, and the way that these maps can be interpreted and applied. To illustrate its potential use in biogeographical studies, FEM was applied to predicting the potential distribution of three invasive alien plant species (Lantana camara L., Ricinus communis L. and Solanum mauritianum Scop.), and three native cicada species (Capicada decora Germar, Platypleura deusta Thun. and P. capensis L.) in South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. These models were quantitatively compared with models produced by means of the algorithm used in the BIOCLIM modelling package, which is referred to as a crisp envelope model (the CEM design). The average performance of models of the FEM design was consistently higher than those of the CEM design. There were significant differences in model performance among species but there was no significant interaction between model design and species. The average maximum kappa value ranged from 0.70 to 0.90 for FEM design and from 0.57 to 0.89 for the CEM design, which can be described as 'good' to 'excellent' using published ranges of agreement for the kappa statistic. This technique can be used to predict species' potential distributions that could be used for identifying regions at risk from invasion by alien species. These predictions could also be used in conservation planning in the case of native species.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2004
- Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Villet, Martin H , Palmer, Anthony R
- Date: 2004
- Language: English
- Type: text , Article
- Identifier: vital:6897 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011659 , http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1366-9516.2004.00108.x
- Description: A new predictive modelling technique called the fuzzy envelope model (FEM) is introduced. The technique can be used to predict potential distributions of organisms using presence-only locality records and a set of environmental predictor variables. FEM uses fuzzy logic to classify a set of predictor variable maps based on the values associated with presence records and combines the results to produce a potential distribution map for a target species. This technique represents several refinements of the envelope approach used in the BIOCLIM modelling package. These refinements are related to the way in which FEMs deal with uncertainty, the way in which this uncertainty is represented in the resultant potential distribution maps, and the way that these maps can be interpreted and applied. To illustrate its potential use in biogeographical studies, FEM was applied to predicting the potential distribution of three invasive alien plant species (Lantana camara L., Ricinus communis L. and Solanum mauritianum Scop.), and three native cicada species (Capicada decora Germar, Platypleura deusta Thun. and P. capensis L.) in South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. These models were quantitatively compared with models produced by means of the algorithm used in the BIOCLIM modelling package, which is referred to as a crisp envelope model (the CEM design). The average performance of models of the FEM design was consistently higher than those of the CEM design. There were significant differences in model performance among species but there was no significant interaction between model design and species. The average maximum kappa value ranged from 0.70 to 0.90 for FEM design and from 0.57 to 0.89 for the CEM design, which can be described as 'good' to 'excellent' using published ranges of agreement for the kappa statistic. This technique can be used to predict species' potential distributions that could be used for identifying regions at risk from invasion by alien species. These predictions could also be used in conservation planning in the case of native species.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2004
A proposed prioritization system for the management of invasive alien plants in South Africa
- Robertson, Mark P, Villet, Martin H, Fairbanks, Dean H K, Henderson, L, Higgins, Simon I, Hoffmann, John H, Le Maitre, David C, Palmer, Anthony R, Riggs, I, Shackleton, Charlie M, Zimmermann, Helmuth G
- Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Villet, Martin H , Fairbanks, Dean H K , Henderson, L , Higgins, Simon I , Hoffmann, John H , Le Maitre, David C , Palmer, Anthony R , Riggs, I , Shackleton, Charlie M , Zimmermann, Helmuth G
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6911 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011872
- Description: Every country has weed species whose presence conflicts in some way with human management objectives and needs. Resources for research and control are limited, so priority should be given to species that are the biggest problem. The prioritization system described in this article was designed to assess objectively research and control priorities of invasive alien plants at a national scale in South Africa. The evaluation consists of seventeen criteria, grouped into five modules, that assess invasiveness, spatial characteristics, potential impact, potential for control, and conflicts of interest for each plant species under consideration. Total prioritization scores, calculated from criterion and module scores, were used to assess a species' priority. Prioritization scores were calculated by combining independent assessments provided by several experts, thus increasing the reliability of the rankings. The total confidence score, a separate index, indicates the reliability and availability of data used to make an assessment. Candidate species for evaluation were identified and assessed by several experts using the prioritization system. The final ranking was made by combining two separate indices, the total prioritization score and the total confidence score. This approach integrates the plant's perceived priority with an index of data reliability. Of the 61 species assessed, those with the highest ranks (Lantana camara, Chromolaena odorata and Opuntia ficus-indica) had high prioritization and high confidence scores, and are thus of most concern. Those species with the lowest ranks, for example, Harrisia martinii, Opuntia spinulifera and Opuntia exaltata, had low prioritization scores and high confidence scores, and thus are of least concern. Our approach to ranking weeds offers several advantages over existing systems because it is designed for multiple assessors based on the Delphi decision-making technique, the criteria contribute equally to the total score, and the system can accommodate incomplete data on a species. Although the choice of criteria may be criticized and the system has certain limitations, it appears to have delivered credible results.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Villet, Martin H , Fairbanks, Dean H K , Henderson, L , Higgins, Simon I , Hoffmann, John H , Le Maitre, David C , Palmer, Anthony R , Riggs, I , Shackleton, Charlie M , Zimmermann, Helmuth G
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6911 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011872
- Description: Every country has weed species whose presence conflicts in some way with human management objectives and needs. Resources for research and control are limited, so priority should be given to species that are the biggest problem. The prioritization system described in this article was designed to assess objectively research and control priorities of invasive alien plants at a national scale in South Africa. The evaluation consists of seventeen criteria, grouped into five modules, that assess invasiveness, spatial characteristics, potential impact, potential for control, and conflicts of interest for each plant species under consideration. Total prioritization scores, calculated from criterion and module scores, were used to assess a species' priority. Prioritization scores were calculated by combining independent assessments provided by several experts, thus increasing the reliability of the rankings. The total confidence score, a separate index, indicates the reliability and availability of data used to make an assessment. Candidate species for evaluation were identified and assessed by several experts using the prioritization system. The final ranking was made by combining two separate indices, the total prioritization score and the total confidence score. This approach integrates the plant's perceived priority with an index of data reliability. Of the 61 species assessed, those with the highest ranks (Lantana camara, Chromolaena odorata and Opuntia ficus-indica) had high prioritization and high confidence scores, and are thus of most concern. Those species with the lowest ranks, for example, Harrisia martinii, Opuntia spinulifera and Opuntia exaltata, had low prioritization scores and high confidence scores, and thus are of least concern. Our approach to ranking weeds offers several advantages over existing systems because it is designed for multiple assessors based on the Delphi decision-making technique, the criteria contribute equally to the total score, and the system can accommodate incomplete data on a species. Although the choice of criteria may be criticized and the system has certain limitations, it appears to have delivered credible results.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
A technique for evaluating species richness maps generated from collections data
- Robertson, Mark P, Barker, Nigel P
- Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Barker, Nigel P
- Date: 2006
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6538 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005979
- Description: There is considerable pressure on conservation planners to use existing data from herbarium and museum collections for planning and monitoring, despite the weaknesses of such data. It is thus important to be able to assess the quality of this information. One application of these data is the production of species richness maps. However, sampling effort is generally not consistent throughout a region for maps generated from collections data, and it is thus desirable to identify geographic grid cells (such as quarter degree squares: QDS) for which there has been low sampling effort. We describe a technique that can be used to identify QDS that are likely to have low species richness that is due to insufficient sampling effort rather than to low actual species richness. The technique exploits relationships between climate and species richness to detect QDS that are poorly sampled. This approach offers advantages over the current practice of applying a single threshold across the entire map region to detectQDSthat are poorly sampled. Here we report on the application of our technique to plant species richness data in the PRECIS database. Results reveal that the majority of QDS in the Flora of Southern Africa region can be considered to be poorly sampled, even when using conservative thresholds for richness values. The advantages and weaknesses of the technique are discussed and issues requiring further investigation are highlighted.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Barker, Nigel P
- Date: 2006
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6538 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005979
- Description: There is considerable pressure on conservation planners to use existing data from herbarium and museum collections for planning and monitoring, despite the weaknesses of such data. It is thus important to be able to assess the quality of this information. One application of these data is the production of species richness maps. However, sampling effort is generally not consistent throughout a region for maps generated from collections data, and it is thus desirable to identify geographic grid cells (such as quarter degree squares: QDS) for which there has been low sampling effort. We describe a technique that can be used to identify QDS that are likely to have low species richness that is due to insufficient sampling effort rather than to low actual species richness. The technique exploits relationships between climate and species richness to detect QDS that are poorly sampled. This approach offers advantages over the current practice of applying a single threshold across the entire map region to detectQDSthat are poorly sampled. Here we report on the application of our technique to plant species richness data in the PRECIS database. Results reveal that the majority of QDS in the Flora of Southern Africa region can be considered to be poorly sampled, even when using conservative thresholds for richness values. The advantages and weaknesses of the technique are discussed and issues requiring further investigation are highlighted.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
Comparing models for predicting species' potential distributions : a case study using correlative and mechanistic predictive modelling techniques
- Robertson, Mark P, Peter, Craig I, Villet, Martin H, Ripley, Bradley S
- Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Peter, Craig I , Villet, Martin H , Ripley, Bradley S
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6539 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005980 , http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00028-0
- Description: Models used to predict species’ potential distributions have been described as either correlative or mechanistic. We attempted to determine whether correlative models could perform as well as mechanistic models for predicting species potential distributions, using a case study. We compared potential distribution predictions made for a coastal dune plant (Scaevola plumieri) along the coast of South Africa, using a mechanistic model based on summer water balance (SWB), and two correlative models (a profile and a group discrimination technique). The profile technique was based on principal components analysis (PCA) and the group-discrimination technique was based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Kappa (κ) statistics were used to objectively assess model performance and model agreement. Model performance was calculated by measuring the levels of agreement (using κ) between a set of testing localities (distribution records not used for model building) and each of the model predictions. Using published interpretive guidelines for the kappa statistic, model performance was “excellent” for the SWB model (κ=0.852), perfect for the LR model (κ=1.000), and “very good” for the PCA model (κ=0.721). Model agreement was calculated by measuring the level of agreement between the mechanistic model and the two correlative models. There was “good” model agreement between the SWB and PCA models (κ=0.679) and “very good” agreement between the SWB and LR models (κ=0.786). The results suggest that correlative models can perform as well as or better than simple mechanistic models. The predictions generated from these three modelling designs are likely to generate different insights into the potential distribution and biology of the target organism and may be appropriate in different situations. The choice of model is likely to be influenced by the aims of the study, the biology of the target organism, the level of knowledge the target organism’s biology, and data quality.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Peter, Craig I , Villet, Martin H , Ripley, Bradley S
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6539 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005980 , http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00028-0
- Description: Models used to predict species’ potential distributions have been described as either correlative or mechanistic. We attempted to determine whether correlative models could perform as well as mechanistic models for predicting species potential distributions, using a case study. We compared potential distribution predictions made for a coastal dune plant (Scaevola plumieri) along the coast of South Africa, using a mechanistic model based on summer water balance (SWB), and two correlative models (a profile and a group discrimination technique). The profile technique was based on principal components analysis (PCA) and the group-discrimination technique was based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Kappa (κ) statistics were used to objectively assess model performance and model agreement. Model performance was calculated by measuring the levels of agreement (using κ) between a set of testing localities (distribution records not used for model building) and each of the model predictions. Using published interpretive guidelines for the kappa statistic, model performance was “excellent” for the SWB model (κ=0.852), perfect for the LR model (κ=1.000), and “very good” for the PCA model (κ=0.721). Model agreement was calculated by measuring the level of agreement between the mechanistic model and the two correlative models. There was “good” model agreement between the SWB and PCA models (κ=0.679) and “very good” agreement between the SWB and LR models (κ=0.786). The results suggest that correlative models can perform as well as or better than simple mechanistic models. The predictions generated from these three modelling designs are likely to generate different insights into the potential distribution and biology of the target organism and may be appropriate in different situations. The choice of model is likely to be influenced by the aims of the study, the biology of the target organism, the level of knowledge the target organism’s biology, and data quality.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
Environmental limits to the distribution of Scaevola plumieri along the South African coast
- Peter, Craig I, Ripley, Bradley S, Robertson, Mark P
- Authors: Peter, Craig I , Ripley, Bradley S , Robertson, Mark P
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6533 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005974
- Description: Scaevola plumieri is an important pioneer on many tropical and subtropical sand dunes, forming a large perennial subterranean plant with only the tips of the branches emerging above accreting sand. In South Africa it is the dominant pioneer on sandy beaches along the east coast, less abundant on the south coast and absent from the southwest and west coasts. Transpiration rates (E) of S. plumieri are predictably related to atmospheric vapour pressure deficit under a wide range of conditions and can therefore be predicted from measurement of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Scaling measurements of E at the leaf level to the canopy level has been demonstrated previously. Using a geographic information system, digital maps of regional climatic variables were used to calculate digital maps of potential transpiration from mean monthly temperature and relative humidity values, effectively scaling canopy level transpiration rates to a regional level. Monthly potential transpiration was subtracted from the monthly median rainfall to produce a map of mean monthly water balance. Seasonal growth was correlated with seasonal water balance. Localities along the coast with water deficits in summer corresponded with the recorded absence of S. plumieri, which grows and reproduces most actively in the summer months. This suggests that reduced water availability during the summer growth period limits the distribution of S. plumieri along the southwest coast, where water deficits develop in summer. Temperature is also important in limiting the distribution of S. plumieri on the southwest coast of South Africa through its effects on the growth and phenology of the plant.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Peter, Craig I , Ripley, Bradley S , Robertson, Mark P
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6533 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005974
- Description: Scaevola plumieri is an important pioneer on many tropical and subtropical sand dunes, forming a large perennial subterranean plant with only the tips of the branches emerging above accreting sand. In South Africa it is the dominant pioneer on sandy beaches along the east coast, less abundant on the south coast and absent from the southwest and west coasts. Transpiration rates (E) of S. plumieri are predictably related to atmospheric vapour pressure deficit under a wide range of conditions and can therefore be predicted from measurement of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Scaling measurements of E at the leaf level to the canopy level has been demonstrated previously. Using a geographic information system, digital maps of regional climatic variables were used to calculate digital maps of potential transpiration from mean monthly temperature and relative humidity values, effectively scaling canopy level transpiration rates to a regional level. Monthly potential transpiration was subtracted from the monthly median rainfall to produce a map of mean monthly water balance. Seasonal growth was correlated with seasonal water balance. Localities along the coast with water deficits in summer corresponded with the recorded absence of S. plumieri, which grows and reproduces most actively in the summer months. This suggests that reduced water availability during the summer growth period limits the distribution of S. plumieri along the southwest coast, where water deficits develop in summer. Temperature is also important in limiting the distribution of S. plumieri on the southwest coast of South Africa through its effects on the growth and phenology of the plant.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
Environmental limits to the distribution of Scaevola plumieri along the South African coast
- Peter, Craig I, Ripley, Bradley S, Robertson, Mark P
- Authors: Peter, Craig I , Ripley, Bradley S , Robertson, Mark P
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6872 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011617
- Description: Scaevola plumieri is an important pioneer on many tropical and subtropical sand dunes, forming a large perennial subterranean plant with only the tips of the branches emerging above accreting sand. In South Africa it is the dominant pioneer on sandy beaches along the east coast, less abundant on the south coast and absent from the southwest and west coasts. Transpiration rates (E) of S. plumieri are predictably related to atmospheric vapour pressure deficit under a wide range of conditions and can therefore be predicted from measurement of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Scaling measurements of E at the leaf level to the canopy level has been demonstrated previously. Using a geographic information system, digital maps of regional climatic variables were used to calculate digital maps of potential transpiration from mean monthly temperature and relative humidity values, effectively scaling canopy level transpiration rates to a regional level. Monthly potential transpiration was subtracted from the monthly median rainfall to produce a map of mean monthly water balance. Seasonal growth was correlated with seasonal water balance. Localities along the coast with water deficits in summer corresponded with the recorded absence of S. plumieri, which grows and reproduces most actively in the summer months. This suggests that reduced water availability during the summer growth period limits the distribution of S. plumieri along the southwest coast, where water deficits develop in summer. Temperature is also important in limiting the distribution of S. plumieri on the southwest coast of South Africa through its effects on the growth and phenology of the plant.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Peter, Craig I , Ripley, Bradley S , Robertson, Mark P
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6872 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011617
- Description: Scaevola plumieri is an important pioneer on many tropical and subtropical sand dunes, forming a large perennial subterranean plant with only the tips of the branches emerging above accreting sand. In South Africa it is the dominant pioneer on sandy beaches along the east coast, less abundant on the south coast and absent from the southwest and west coasts. Transpiration rates (E) of S. plumieri are predictably related to atmospheric vapour pressure deficit under a wide range of conditions and can therefore be predicted from measurement of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Scaling measurements of E at the leaf level to the canopy level has been demonstrated previously. Using a geographic information system, digital maps of regional climatic variables were used to calculate digital maps of potential transpiration from mean monthly temperature and relative humidity values, effectively scaling canopy level transpiration rates to a regional level. Monthly potential transpiration was subtracted from the monthly median rainfall to produce a map of mean monthly water balance. Seasonal growth was correlated with seasonal water balance. Localities along the coast with water deficits in summer corresponded with the recorded absence of S. plumieri, which grows and reproduces most actively in the summer months. This suggests that reduced water availability during the summer growth period limits the distribution of S. plumieri along the southwest coast, where water deficits develop in summer. Temperature is also important in limiting the distribution of S. plumieri on the southwest coast of South Africa through its effects on the growth and phenology of the plant.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
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