A comparison of three models used to determine water fluxes over the Albany Thicket, Eastern Cape, South Africa:
- Palmer, Anthony R, Ezenne, G I, Choruma, D J, Gwate, O, Mantel, S M, Tanner, J L
- Authors: Palmer, Anthony R , Ezenne, G I , Choruma, D J , Gwate, O , Mantel, S M , Tanner, J L
- Date: 2020
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/150047 , vital:38934 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.107984
- Description: The Albany Thicket (AT) biome contains outstanding global biodiversity as well as the potential to achieve carbon credits associated with water-efficient Crasslucean acid metabolism (CAM). Understanding the water fluxes in the AT is crucial to determining carbon (C) sequestration rates and water-use efficiency. Despite large variation in water fluxes across the AT, only a few studies have been conducted in this region with their results validated against short periods of observed data. This study aims to evaluate three models of water fluxes over AT against data from an eddy covariance (EC) system active from October 2015 to May 2018. ET was modelled using the BioGeoChemistry Management (BGC-MAN) model, a biophysical model (Penman-Monteith-Leuning (PML)) and a remotely-sensed product (MOD16), and their results compared with that from the EC system.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Palmer, Anthony R , Ezenne, G I , Choruma, D J , Gwate, O , Mantel, S M , Tanner, J L
- Date: 2020
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/150047 , vital:38934 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.107984
- Description: The Albany Thicket (AT) biome contains outstanding global biodiversity as well as the potential to achieve carbon credits associated with water-efficient Crasslucean acid metabolism (CAM). Understanding the water fluxes in the AT is crucial to determining carbon (C) sequestration rates and water-use efficiency. Despite large variation in water fluxes across the AT, only a few studies have been conducted in this region with their results validated against short periods of observed data. This study aims to evaluate three models of water fluxes over AT against data from an eddy covariance (EC) system active from October 2015 to May 2018. ET was modelled using the BioGeoChemistry Management (BGC-MAN) model, a biophysical model (Penman-Monteith-Leuning (PML)) and a remotely-sensed product (MOD16), and their results compared with that from the EC system.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
A fuzzy classification technique for predicting species' distributions: applications using invasive alien plants and indigenous insects
- Robertson, Mark P, Villet, Martin H, Palmer, Anthony R
- Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Villet, Martin H , Palmer, Anthony R
- Date: 2004
- Language: English
- Type: text , Article
- Identifier: vital:6897 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011659 , http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1366-9516.2004.00108.x
- Description: A new predictive modelling technique called the fuzzy envelope model (FEM) is introduced. The technique can be used to predict potential distributions of organisms using presence-only locality records and a set of environmental predictor variables. FEM uses fuzzy logic to classify a set of predictor variable maps based on the values associated with presence records and combines the results to produce a potential distribution map for a target species. This technique represents several refinements of the envelope approach used in the BIOCLIM modelling package. These refinements are related to the way in which FEMs deal with uncertainty, the way in which this uncertainty is represented in the resultant potential distribution maps, and the way that these maps can be interpreted and applied. To illustrate its potential use in biogeographical studies, FEM was applied to predicting the potential distribution of three invasive alien plant species (Lantana camara L., Ricinus communis L. and Solanum mauritianum Scop.), and three native cicada species (Capicada decora Germar, Platypleura deusta Thun. and P. capensis L.) in South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. These models were quantitatively compared with models produced by means of the algorithm used in the BIOCLIM modelling package, which is referred to as a crisp envelope model (the CEM design). The average performance of models of the FEM design was consistently higher than those of the CEM design. There were significant differences in model performance among species but there was no significant interaction between model design and species. The average maximum kappa value ranged from 0.70 to 0.90 for FEM design and from 0.57 to 0.89 for the CEM design, which can be described as 'good' to 'excellent' using published ranges of agreement for the kappa statistic. This technique can be used to predict species' potential distributions that could be used for identifying regions at risk from invasion by alien species. These predictions could also be used in conservation planning in the case of native species.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2004
- Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Villet, Martin H , Palmer, Anthony R
- Date: 2004
- Language: English
- Type: text , Article
- Identifier: vital:6897 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011659 , http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1366-9516.2004.00108.x
- Description: A new predictive modelling technique called the fuzzy envelope model (FEM) is introduced. The technique can be used to predict potential distributions of organisms using presence-only locality records and a set of environmental predictor variables. FEM uses fuzzy logic to classify a set of predictor variable maps based on the values associated with presence records and combines the results to produce a potential distribution map for a target species. This technique represents several refinements of the envelope approach used in the BIOCLIM modelling package. These refinements are related to the way in which FEMs deal with uncertainty, the way in which this uncertainty is represented in the resultant potential distribution maps, and the way that these maps can be interpreted and applied. To illustrate its potential use in biogeographical studies, FEM was applied to predicting the potential distribution of three invasive alien plant species (Lantana camara L., Ricinus communis L. and Solanum mauritianum Scop.), and three native cicada species (Capicada decora Germar, Platypleura deusta Thun. and P. capensis L.) in South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. These models were quantitatively compared with models produced by means of the algorithm used in the BIOCLIM modelling package, which is referred to as a crisp envelope model (the CEM design). The average performance of models of the FEM design was consistently higher than those of the CEM design. There were significant differences in model performance among species but there was no significant interaction between model design and species. The average maximum kappa value ranged from 0.70 to 0.90 for FEM design and from 0.57 to 0.89 for the CEM design, which can be described as 'good' to 'excellent' using published ranges of agreement for the kappa statistic. This technique can be used to predict species' potential distributions that could be used for identifying regions at risk from invasion by alien species. These predictions could also be used in conservation planning in the case of native species.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2004
A proposed prioritization system for the management of invasive alien plants in South Africa
- Robertson, Mark P, Villet, Martin H, Fairbanks, Dean H K, Henderson, L, Higgins, Simon I, Hoffmann, John H, Le Maitre, David C, Palmer, Anthony R, Riggs, I, Shackleton, Charlie M, Zimmermann, Helmuth G
- Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Villet, Martin H , Fairbanks, Dean H K , Henderson, L , Higgins, Simon I , Hoffmann, John H , Le Maitre, David C , Palmer, Anthony R , Riggs, I , Shackleton, Charlie M , Zimmermann, Helmuth G
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6911 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011872
- Description: Every country has weed species whose presence conflicts in some way with human management objectives and needs. Resources for research and control are limited, so priority should be given to species that are the biggest problem. The prioritization system described in this article was designed to assess objectively research and control priorities of invasive alien plants at a national scale in South Africa. The evaluation consists of seventeen criteria, grouped into five modules, that assess invasiveness, spatial characteristics, potential impact, potential for control, and conflicts of interest for each plant species under consideration. Total prioritization scores, calculated from criterion and module scores, were used to assess a species' priority. Prioritization scores were calculated by combining independent assessments provided by several experts, thus increasing the reliability of the rankings. The total confidence score, a separate index, indicates the reliability and availability of data used to make an assessment. Candidate species for evaluation were identified and assessed by several experts using the prioritization system. The final ranking was made by combining two separate indices, the total prioritization score and the total confidence score. This approach integrates the plant's perceived priority with an index of data reliability. Of the 61 species assessed, those with the highest ranks (Lantana camara, Chromolaena odorata and Opuntia ficus-indica) had high prioritization and high confidence scores, and are thus of most concern. Those species with the lowest ranks, for example, Harrisia martinii, Opuntia spinulifera and Opuntia exaltata, had low prioritization scores and high confidence scores, and thus are of least concern. Our approach to ranking weeds offers several advantages over existing systems because it is designed for multiple assessors based on the Delphi decision-making technique, the criteria contribute equally to the total score, and the system can accommodate incomplete data on a species. Although the choice of criteria may be criticized and the system has certain limitations, it appears to have delivered credible results.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Robertson, Mark P , Villet, Martin H , Fairbanks, Dean H K , Henderson, L , Higgins, Simon I , Hoffmann, John H , Le Maitre, David C , Palmer, Anthony R , Riggs, I , Shackleton, Charlie M , Zimmermann, Helmuth G
- Date: 2003
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6911 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011872
- Description: Every country has weed species whose presence conflicts in some way with human management objectives and needs. Resources for research and control are limited, so priority should be given to species that are the biggest problem. The prioritization system described in this article was designed to assess objectively research and control priorities of invasive alien plants at a national scale in South Africa. The evaluation consists of seventeen criteria, grouped into five modules, that assess invasiveness, spatial characteristics, potential impact, potential for control, and conflicts of interest for each plant species under consideration. Total prioritization scores, calculated from criterion and module scores, were used to assess a species' priority. Prioritization scores were calculated by combining independent assessments provided by several experts, thus increasing the reliability of the rankings. The total confidence score, a separate index, indicates the reliability and availability of data used to make an assessment. Candidate species for evaluation were identified and assessed by several experts using the prioritization system. The final ranking was made by combining two separate indices, the total prioritization score and the total confidence score. This approach integrates the plant's perceived priority with an index of data reliability. Of the 61 species assessed, those with the highest ranks (Lantana camara, Chromolaena odorata and Opuntia ficus-indica) had high prioritization and high confidence scores, and are thus of most concern. Those species with the lowest ranks, for example, Harrisia martinii, Opuntia spinulifera and Opuntia exaltata, had low prioritization scores and high confidence scores, and thus are of least concern. Our approach to ranking weeds offers several advantages over existing systems because it is designed for multiple assessors based on the Delphi decision-making technique, the criteria contribute equally to the total score, and the system can accommodate incomplete data on a species. Although the choice of criteria may be criticized and the system has certain limitations, it appears to have delivered credible results.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
Modelling annual evapotranspiration in a semi-arid, African savanna: functional convergence theory, MODIS LAI and the Penman–Monteith equation
- Palmer, Anthony R, Weideman, Craig I, Finca, Andiswa, Everson, Colin S, Hanan, Niall P, Ellery, William F N
- Authors: Palmer, Anthony R , Weideman, Craig I , Finca, Andiswa , Everson, Colin S , Hanan, Niall P , Ellery, William F N
- Date: 2014
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/144387 , vital:38341 , DOI: 10.2989/10220119.2014.931305
- Description: Accurately measuring evapotranspiration (ET) is essential if we are to derive reasonable estimates of production and water use for semi-arid savannas. Estimates of ET are also important in defining the health of an ecosystem and the quantity of water used by the vegetation when preparing a catchment-scale water balance. We derived ET0 from an automatic weather station 30 km west of Skukuza, Kruger National Park, South Africa using the Penman– Monteith equation, and then used the MODIS LAI to inform the model of canopy phenological dynamics. This result was compared with 173 days of ET measurements from the eddy covariance (ETec) system near Skukuza in 2007 as well as from the ET recorded by a large-aperture scintillometer at the same site in 2005. The model compared favourably with both sets of measured data and, when used independently of the eddy covariance data, ETMODIS predicted an annual ET of 378 mm in 2007 for the semi-arid savanna around the Skukuza flux site.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Palmer, Anthony R , Weideman, Craig I , Finca, Andiswa , Everson, Colin S , Hanan, Niall P , Ellery, William F N
- Date: 2014
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/144387 , vital:38341 , DOI: 10.2989/10220119.2014.931305
- Description: Accurately measuring evapotranspiration (ET) is essential if we are to derive reasonable estimates of production and water use for semi-arid savannas. Estimates of ET are also important in defining the health of an ecosystem and the quantity of water used by the vegetation when preparing a catchment-scale water balance. We derived ET0 from an automatic weather station 30 km west of Skukuza, Kruger National Park, South Africa using the Penman– Monteith equation, and then used the MODIS LAI to inform the model of canopy phenological dynamics. This result was compared with 173 days of ET measurements from the eddy covariance (ETec) system near Skukuza in 2007 as well as from the ET recorded by a large-aperture scintillometer at the same site in 2005. The model compared favourably with both sets of measured data and, when used independently of the eddy covariance data, ETMODIS predicted an annual ET of 378 mm in 2007 for the semi-arid savanna around the Skukuza flux site.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Topographic controls on the invasion of Pteronia incana (Blue bush) onto hillslopes in Ngqushwa (formerly Peddie) district, Eastern Cape, South Africa
- Kakembo, V, Rowntree, Kate M, Palmer, Anthony R
- Authors: Kakembo, V , Rowntree, Kate M , Palmer, Anthony R
- Date: 2007
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6689 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006708
- Description: The role of topographic factors in the invasion of hillslopes by Pteronia incana, an unpalatable shrub, was investigated. The study combined field observations with image analysis based on high-resolution infrared imagery. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of 20 m spatial resolution was used to derive terrain parameters. The Topographic Wetness Index (WI), a component of the TOPMODEL, was derived from the DEM and its relationship with the spatial distribution of P. incana was explored. The absence/presence of P. incana was noted to be strongly influenced by slope angle and aspect. The probability for P. incana occurrence increased with slope steepness and southerly slope orientation. Abandoned and grazing lands were identified as the main invasion hotspots on hillslopes. The combined influence of slope gradient and aspect, and land use was noted to have promoted the invasion. This is borne out by the concentration of the invasion on abandoned steep slopes with a southerly orientation. The WI confirmed the bearing local topographic variations have on P. incana spatial distribution such that, P. incana was associated with the low WI values of convexities. The coupling between local topography and soil surface crusting underpins soil moisture variability. This in turn determines the competition between the patchy P. incana and grass species and the eventual replacement of the latter by the former. Restoration efforts of the invaded lands should focus on trapping of sediment and litter, and moisture retention on the inter-patch bare areas.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Kakembo, V , Rowntree, Kate M , Palmer, Anthony R
- Date: 2007
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: vital:6689 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006708
- Description: The role of topographic factors in the invasion of hillslopes by Pteronia incana, an unpalatable shrub, was investigated. The study combined field observations with image analysis based on high-resolution infrared imagery. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of 20 m spatial resolution was used to derive terrain parameters. The Topographic Wetness Index (WI), a component of the TOPMODEL, was derived from the DEM and its relationship with the spatial distribution of P. incana was explored. The absence/presence of P. incana was noted to be strongly influenced by slope angle and aspect. The probability for P. incana occurrence increased with slope steepness and southerly slope orientation. Abandoned and grazing lands were identified as the main invasion hotspots on hillslopes. The combined influence of slope gradient and aspect, and land use was noted to have promoted the invasion. This is borne out by the concentration of the invasion on abandoned steep slopes with a southerly orientation. The WI confirmed the bearing local topographic variations have on P. incana spatial distribution such that, P. incana was associated with the low WI values of convexities. The coupling between local topography and soil surface crusting underpins soil moisture variability. This in turn determines the competition between the patchy P. incana and grass species and the eventual replacement of the latter by the former. Restoration efforts of the invaded lands should focus on trapping of sediment and litter, and moisture retention on the inter-patch bare areas.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
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