- Title
- Assessment of the human health implications of climate variability in East London, Eastern Cape, South Africa
- Creator
- Orimoloye, Israel Ropo
- Subject
- Climatic changes -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Date
- 2018
- Type
- Thesis
- Type
- Doctoral
- Type
- Geography
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/10353/10113
- Identifier
- vital:35346
- Description
- Impacts associated with climate variability and extreme heat are already obvious in varying degrees and expected to be disruptive in the near future across the globe especially in the urban regions. Urban areas have distinctive features that leave their residents and properties vulnerable to extreme climate events. Global temperatures continue to change, reaching new levels almost every year for the past two decades. However, even though the causes are debated it is evident that climate variability is real. Climate variability and disaster risk are threats to human health that adversely reinforce each other. Better knowledge on the association between climate change, variability and extreme weather-related illness is needed and can aid strategies to reduce vulnerabilities. The impacts of climate variability on the health of residents in East London (EL) area in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa were explored through four interdependent research segments. The first section examined the climate variability and urban surface thermal characteristics implication on human health using Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. Remote sensing was used to assess the Land Surface Temperature (LST) and estimated Radiation (R) of East London area from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images for 1986, 1996, 2006 as well as from Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) for 2016 spanning a period of 30 years. Rapid urbanization and land cover changes in this area have contributed significantly to this drastic change in the natural land surface characteristics (increased land surface temperature and surface solar radiation). For instance, vegetation cover declined by about 358.812km2 while built-up areas increased by 175.473km2 during this period which correlates with the area thermal characteristics changes. Radiation levels also increased over the years with values exceeding the global solar radiation index. Exposure to increased surface radiation poses risks of heat stroke, skin cancer and heart disease to the local population. Consequently, this study provides pertinent information on human health sustainability and epidemiological case management. The second part explored past temperature and humidity trends (1986-2016) and projects future trends (2017-2030). The historical data of meteorological variables were obtained from the archives of the South African Weather Service and analyzed using the ordinary least square regression model in GRETL (GNU Regression Econometric and Time-series Library) statistical software. This study discovered a local consistency between models and the observations add to existing knowledge and this is crucial in knowing the shifts in climatic change as well as recognizing variability and its conflicting effects on human health, environment, agriculture, ecological sustainability and socioeconomic status in the region. The third segment assessed the potential impacts of climate variability on health using existing heat indices during the study period. The results demonstrated that in East London from 1986 to 2016 during summer and autumn (December to May) of various years exceeded high heat index values. It is obvious that summer and autumn months are more vulnerable to heat extreme and humidex. The humidex and Heat Index (HI) increased annually by 0.03percent and 0.9percent respectively throughout the study period. The increment in the various indices showed highly significant ill-health and environmental impacts on humans especially with prolonged exposure. The last segment appraised the association between climatic elements and epidemiological incidences of the study area between 2012 and 2016. The epidemiology incidences data were obtained from the archives of the Cecilia Makiwane Hospital in East London area and National Tertiary Service Grant (NTSG) database for the period. The results have showed that there exists significant effects of climate variability on the health of East London residents and these have been identified to have negative impacts on health of the people in the area. This study also revealed noticeable impacts of extreme heat on human health and a positive correlation between meteorological components (HI and temperature) and epidemiological cases (cardiovascular, skin cancer and diarrhea) during the study period.
- Format
- 193 leaves
- Format
- Publisher
- University of Fort Hare
- Publisher
- Faculty of Science and Agriculture
- Language
- English
- Rights
- University of Fort Hare
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| Thumbnail | File | Description | Size | Format | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| View Details | SOURCE1 | PhD (Geography) ORIMOLOYE - May 2018.pdf | 6 MB | Adobe Acrobat PDF | View Details |