Monetary policy transmission in South Africa: the prime rate-demand for credit phase
- Authors: Lehobo, Limakatso
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1128 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020850
- Description: A voluminous literature attempts to explain the various channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through which central banks ultimately achieve price stability. However, most research focuses on interest rate pass-through and the demand for money phase, while there is limited research on the demand for credit. This study endeavours to contribute to the understanding of this neglected phase of monetary policy transmission by exploring the response of the real demand for bank credit by the private sector to changes in the real prime rate from 1990:1 to 2004:4 in South Africa. Firstly, the behaviour of the real prime rate in relation to the repo rate is explored using graphical analysis. The study observes that an increase in the repo rate causes an increase in the real prime rate, such that there is always a margin of three or four percentage points between the two rates. Secondly, using secondary data, the Johansen methodology is used to determine the relationship between the demand for bank credit and its determinants (GDP, inflation, real prime rate and real yield on government bonds). Two co-integrating relationships are found. The Gaussian errors from one co-integrating vector are used to model the Vector Error Correction Model, which provides the short-run dynamics and the long-run results, through the use of Eviews 5 software. The results of the study show that while all other variables are negatively related to the demand for bank credit in the long-run, GDP has a positive influence. In the short-run, yield on government bonds and inflation coefficients depict a positive association, while the coefficients of real prime rate and GDP are negative. The error correction coefficient is -0.32, which implies that a 32% adjustment to equilibrium happens in the demand for bank credit in a quarter and that the complete adjustment takes about three quarters to complete. Thirdly, the generalised impulse responses results indicate that the impact on the real prime rate affects the demand for bank credit from the first quarter. The study concludes that the real prime rate has a negative impact on the demand for credit both in the short-run and long-run.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Lehobo, Limakatso
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1128 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020850
- Description: A voluminous literature attempts to explain the various channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through which central banks ultimately achieve price stability. However, most research focuses on interest rate pass-through and the demand for money phase, while there is limited research on the demand for credit. This study endeavours to contribute to the understanding of this neglected phase of monetary policy transmission by exploring the response of the real demand for bank credit by the private sector to changes in the real prime rate from 1990:1 to 2004:4 in South Africa. Firstly, the behaviour of the real prime rate in relation to the repo rate is explored using graphical analysis. The study observes that an increase in the repo rate causes an increase in the real prime rate, such that there is always a margin of three or four percentage points between the two rates. Secondly, using secondary data, the Johansen methodology is used to determine the relationship between the demand for bank credit and its determinants (GDP, inflation, real prime rate and real yield on government bonds). Two co-integrating relationships are found. The Gaussian errors from one co-integrating vector are used to model the Vector Error Correction Model, which provides the short-run dynamics and the long-run results, through the use of Eviews 5 software. The results of the study show that while all other variables are negatively related to the demand for bank credit in the long-run, GDP has a positive influence. In the short-run, yield on government bonds and inflation coefficients depict a positive association, while the coefficients of real prime rate and GDP are negative. The error correction coefficient is -0.32, which implies that a 32% adjustment to equilibrium happens in the demand for bank credit in a quarter and that the complete adjustment takes about three quarters to complete. Thirdly, the generalised impulse responses results indicate that the impact on the real prime rate affects the demand for bank credit from the first quarter. The study concludes that the real prime rate has a negative impact on the demand for credit both in the short-run and long-run.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
The behaviour and fundamental determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa
- Authors: Takaendesa, Peter
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:960 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002694 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Description: Real exchange rates have important effects on production, employment and trade, so it is crucial to understand the factors responsible for their variations. This study analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate and the dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks to those determinants, using quarterly South African data covering the period 1975 to 2005. It begins with a review of literature on the determinants of the real exchange rate and provides an updated background on the exchange rate system in South Africa. An empirical model linking the real exchange rate to its theoretical determinants is then specified. In contrast to previous analyses, this study augments the cointegration and vector autoregression (VAR) analysis with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to provide robust long run effects and short run dynamic effects on the real exchange rate. The variables that have been found to have a long run relationship with the real exchange rate include the terms of trade, real interest rate differential, domestic credit, openness and technological progress. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about a third of the variation in the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level is corrected within a quarter. The impulse response functions broadly corroborate the theoretical predictions, but only the terms of trade, domestic credit and openness have a significant impact on the real exchange rate in the short run. However, only shocks to the terms of trade and domestic credit have persistent effects on the real exchange rate. Results from the variance decompositions are largely similar to those from the impulse response analysis. The terms of trade, domestic credit and openness are the only variables found to significantly explain the variation in the real exchange rate. The most interesting result that emerged from this analysis and is supported by previous research is that among other determinants, the terms of trade explain the largest proportion of the variation in the real exchange. On balance, the evidence therefore suggests that real exchange rate fluctuations are predominantly equilibrium responses to real and monetary shocks rather than fiscal policy shocks.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Takaendesa, Peter
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:960 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002694 , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Terms of trade -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Description: Real exchange rates have important effects on production, employment and trade, so it is crucial to understand the factors responsible for their variations. This study analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate and the dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks to those determinants, using quarterly South African data covering the period 1975 to 2005. It begins with a review of literature on the determinants of the real exchange rate and provides an updated background on the exchange rate system in South Africa. An empirical model linking the real exchange rate to its theoretical determinants is then specified. In contrast to previous analyses, this study augments the cointegration and vector autoregression (VAR) analysis with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to provide robust long run effects and short run dynamic effects on the real exchange rate. The variables that have been found to have a long run relationship with the real exchange rate include the terms of trade, real interest rate differential, domestic credit, openness and technological progress. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about a third of the variation in the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level is corrected within a quarter. The impulse response functions broadly corroborate the theoretical predictions, but only the terms of trade, domestic credit and openness have a significant impact on the real exchange rate in the short run. However, only shocks to the terms of trade and domestic credit have persistent effects on the real exchange rate. Results from the variance decompositions are largely similar to those from the impulse response analysis. The terms of trade, domestic credit and openness are the only variables found to significantly explain the variation in the real exchange rate. The most interesting result that emerged from this analysis and is supported by previous research is that among other determinants, the terms of trade explain the largest proportion of the variation in the real exchange. On balance, the evidence therefore suggests that real exchange rate fluctuations are predominantly equilibrium responses to real and monetary shocks rather than fiscal policy shocks.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
The economic valuation of cultural events in developing countries: combining market and non-market valuation techniques at the South African National Arts Festival
- Authors: Snowball, Jeanette Dalziel
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects , Performing arts festivals -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Arts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Finance -- South Africa , Arts -- South Africa -- Finance , Arts -- South Africa -- Political aspects , Finance, Public -- South Africa , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:969 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002703 , Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects , Performing arts festivals -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Arts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Finance -- South Africa , Arts -- South Africa -- Finance , Arts -- South Africa -- Political aspects , Finance, Public -- South Africa , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994-
- Description: The arts in many countries, but particularly in developing ones, are coming under increasing financial pressure and finding it difficult to justify the increases in government funding needed to maintain and grow the cultural sector. The trend in cultural economics, as well as in other areas, appears to be towards including qualitative valuations, as well as the more traditional quantitative ones. This thesis argues that the value of cultural events should include long term historical qualitative analysis, financial or economic impact and a valuation of the positive externalities provided by cultural events and that any one of these should only be regarded as a partial analysis. Four methods of valuing the arts using the South African National Arts Festival (NAF) as an example are demonstrated. Firstly, a qualitative historical analysis of the role of the NAF in South Africa’s transformation process from Apartheid to the democratic New South Africa is examined, using theories of cultural capital as a theoretical basis. It is argued that the value of cultural events needs to take into account long-term influences especially in countries undergoing political and social transformation. The second valuation method applied is the traditional economic impact study. Four economic impact studies conducted on the NAF are discussed and methodologies compared. It is concluded that, despite the skepticism of many cultural economists, the method can provide a useful partial valuation and may also be used for effective lobbying for government support of the arts. Chapter four discusses willingness to pay studies conducted at the NAF in 2000 and 2003 (as well as a pilot study conducted at the Klein Karoo Nationale Kunstefees). It is found that lower income and education groups do benefit from the positive externalities provided by the Festival and that this is reflected in their willingness to pay to support it. It is also argued that such contingent valuation studies can provide a reasonably reliable valuation of Festival externalities, but that they may be partly capturing current or future expected financial gains as well. Finally, the relatively new choice experiment methodology (also called conjoint analysis) is demonstrated on visitors to the NAF. The great advantage of this method in valuing cultural events is that it provides part-worths of various Festival attributes for different demographic groups. This enables organizes to structure the programme in such a way as to attract previously excluded groups and to conduct a cost-benefit analysis for each part of the Festival.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Snowball, Jeanette Dalziel
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects , Performing arts festivals -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Arts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Finance -- South Africa , Arts -- South Africa -- Finance , Arts -- South Africa -- Political aspects , Finance, Public -- South Africa , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:969 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002703 , Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects , Performing arts festivals -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Arts -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Finance -- South Africa , Arts -- South Africa -- Finance , Arts -- South Africa -- Political aspects , Finance, Public -- South Africa , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994-
- Description: The arts in many countries, but particularly in developing ones, are coming under increasing financial pressure and finding it difficult to justify the increases in government funding needed to maintain and grow the cultural sector. The trend in cultural economics, as well as in other areas, appears to be towards including qualitative valuations, as well as the more traditional quantitative ones. This thesis argues that the value of cultural events should include long term historical qualitative analysis, financial or economic impact and a valuation of the positive externalities provided by cultural events and that any one of these should only be regarded as a partial analysis. Four methods of valuing the arts using the South African National Arts Festival (NAF) as an example are demonstrated. Firstly, a qualitative historical analysis of the role of the NAF in South Africa’s transformation process from Apartheid to the democratic New South Africa is examined, using theories of cultural capital as a theoretical basis. It is argued that the value of cultural events needs to take into account long-term influences especially in countries undergoing political and social transformation. The second valuation method applied is the traditional economic impact study. Four economic impact studies conducted on the NAF are discussed and methodologies compared. It is concluded that, despite the skepticism of many cultural economists, the method can provide a useful partial valuation and may also be used for effective lobbying for government support of the arts. Chapter four discusses willingness to pay studies conducted at the NAF in 2000 and 2003 (as well as a pilot study conducted at the Klein Karoo Nationale Kunstefees). It is found that lower income and education groups do benefit from the positive externalities provided by the Festival and that this is reflected in their willingness to pay to support it. It is also argued that such contingent valuation studies can provide a reasonably reliable valuation of Festival externalities, but that they may be partly capturing current or future expected financial gains as well. Finally, the relatively new choice experiment methodology (also called conjoint analysis) is demonstrated on visitors to the NAF. The great advantage of this method in valuing cultural events is that it provides part-worths of various Festival attributes for different demographic groups. This enables organizes to structure the programme in such a way as to attract previously excluded groups and to conduct a cost-benefit analysis for each part of the Festival.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- «
- ‹
- 1
- ›
- »