Decomposing the impact of human capital on household income inequality in South Africa: Is education a useful measure?
- Friderichs, Tamaryn J, Keeton, Gavin R, Rogan, Michael
- Authors: Friderichs, Tamaryn J , Keeton, Gavin R , Rogan, Michael
- Date: 2023
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/470842 , vital:77400 , https://doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2022.2163228
- Description: Human capital (HC) has increasingly been identified as a driver of economic development, with the potential to reduce income inequality, which, in South Africa, originates in the labour market. HC is, however, a complex concept to measure. This study uses Fields’ regression-based decomposition method to analyse the relationships between income inequality and HC in South Africa. The Fields method allows for the analysis of the impact of several factors contributing to HC on the distribution of a measure of income. Data from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) wave 1 (2008) and 5 (2017) are used. The findings suggest that increasing educational attainment, through improved school quality for all, would likely play a key role in reducing income inequality in South Africa. Furthermore, the large role of education attainment in explaining household income inequality supports the use of education attainment as a proxy for HC in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023
- Authors: Friderichs, Tamaryn J , Keeton, Gavin R , Rogan, Michael
- Date: 2023
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/470842 , vital:77400 , https://doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2022.2163228
- Description: Human capital (HC) has increasingly been identified as a driver of economic development, with the potential to reduce income inequality, which, in South Africa, originates in the labour market. HC is, however, a complex concept to measure. This study uses Fields’ regression-based decomposition method to analyse the relationships between income inequality and HC in South Africa. The Fields method allows for the analysis of the impact of several factors contributing to HC on the distribution of a measure of income. Data from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) wave 1 (2008) and 5 (2017) are used. The findings suggest that increasing educational attainment, through improved school quality for all, would likely play a key role in reducing income inequality in South Africa. Furthermore, the large role of education attainment in explaining household income inequality supports the use of education attainment as a proxy for HC in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023
A Note on the (Continued) Ability of the Yield Curve to Forecast Economic Downturns in South Africa
- Botha, Ferdi, Keeton, Gavin R
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Keeton, Gavin R
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/395994 , vital:69142 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12053"
- Description: In 2002-2003, the South African yield spread falsely signalled a downswing that never materialised. This paper provides two reasons for this false signal. First, while the Reserve Bank never actually officially declared the start of a downswing, by alternative measures a downswing did actually occur. It is this severe weakness in economic activity at that time that the yield curve pointed to. Second, short-term interest rates in 2003 were higher than they should have been because of a mistake made in measuring consumer price inflation. Because South Africa had recently introduced an inflation-targeting regime, policy interest rates were, as a result of this error, kept too high for too long. This policy mistake was rectified as soon as the error in the Consumer Price Index was discovered. Thus, the yield curve in 2003 pointed to the reality that short-term interest rates were too high and risked pushing the economy into full blown recession. This is demonstrated by the fact that it was a fall in long bond interest rates that caused the yield spread to turn negative, indicating expectations that short-term interest rates would need to be cut – as indeed they were.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Keeton, Gavin R
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/395994 , vital:69142 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12053"
- Description: In 2002-2003, the South African yield spread falsely signalled a downswing that never materialised. This paper provides two reasons for this false signal. First, while the Reserve Bank never actually officially declared the start of a downswing, by alternative measures a downswing did actually occur. It is this severe weakness in economic activity at that time that the yield curve pointed to. Second, short-term interest rates in 2003 were higher than they should have been because of a mistake made in measuring consumer price inflation. Because South Africa had recently introduced an inflation-targeting regime, policy interest rates were, as a result of this error, kept too high for too long. This policy mistake was rectified as soon as the error in the Consumer Price Index was discovered. Thus, the yield curve in 2003 pointed to the reality that short-term interest rates were too high and risked pushing the economy into full blown recession. This is demonstrated by the fact that it was a fall in long bond interest rates that caused the yield spread to turn negative, indicating expectations that short-term interest rates would need to be cut – as indeed they were.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
The determinants of household savings in South Africa
- Simleit, C, Keeton, Gavin R, Botha, Ferdi
- Authors: Simleit, C , Keeton, Gavin R , Botha, Ferdi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396153 , vital:69154 , xlink:href="https://hdl.handle.net/10520/EJC21526"
- Description: In South Africa, substantial government dissaving as well as poor household savings performance has caused a decline in aggregate savings. Whilst government dissaving has been successfully reversed, household savings continue to fall. Low domestic savings have required South Africa to attract large, volatile portfolio capital inflows to fund a structural current account deficit. Repeated reversals of such inflows have constrained domestic growth and hence an understanding of the factors that have caused this decline in savings is essential in order to formulate policies supportive of sustained higher rates of economic growth. Within the context of the existing literature, this article examines the various determinants of household savings using a vector error-correction model (VECM). The results suggest that interest rates, a wealth effect and upturns in the business cycle all contribute to explaining the decline in household savings. The presence of a partial offset between household savings and government savings also has important implications for the effectiveness of using the fiscal position of the South African government to boost savings.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Simleit, C , Keeton, Gavin R , Botha, Ferdi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396153 , vital:69154 , xlink:href="https://hdl.handle.net/10520/EJC21526"
- Description: In South Africa, substantial government dissaving as well as poor household savings performance has caused a decline in aggregate savings. Whilst government dissaving has been successfully reversed, household savings continue to fall. Low domestic savings have required South Africa to attract large, volatile portfolio capital inflows to fund a structural current account deficit. Repeated reversals of such inflows have constrained domestic growth and hence an understanding of the factors that have caused this decline in savings is essential in order to formulate policies supportive of sustained higher rates of economic growth. Within the context of the existing literature, this article examines the various determinants of household savings using a vector error-correction model (VECM). The results suggest that interest rates, a wealth effect and upturns in the business cycle all contribute to explaining the decline in household savings. The presence of a partial offset between household savings and government savings also has important implications for the effectiveness of using the fiscal position of the South African government to boost savings.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Between a rock and a hard place:
- Authors: Keeton, Gavin R
- Date: 2009
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/159401 , vital:40294 , https://hdl.handle.net/10520/EJC139947
- Description: Gavin Keeton takes an economist's tour of the current crisis : how did it happen and what does it mean?
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Keeton, Gavin R
- Date: 2009
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/159401 , vital:40294 , https://hdl.handle.net/10520/EJC139947
- Description: Gavin Keeton takes an economist's tour of the current crisis : how did it happen and what does it mean?
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
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