The development of an ionospheric storm-time index for the South African region
- Authors: Tshisaphungo, Mpho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms -- South Africa , Global Positioning System , Neural networks (Computer science) , Regression analysis , Ionosondes , Auroral electrojet , Geomagnetic indexes , Magnetic storms -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/178409 , vital:42937 , 10.21504/10962/178409
- Description: This thesis presents the development of a regional ionospheric storm-time model which forms the foundation of an index to provide a quick view of the ionospheric storm effects over South African mid-latitude region. The model is based on the foF2 measurements from four South African ionosonde stations. The data coverage for the model development over Grahamstown (33.3◦S, 26.5◦E), Hermanus (34.42◦S, 19.22◦E), Louisvale (28.50◦S, 21.20◦E), and Madimbo (22.39◦S, 30.88◦E) is 1996-2016, 2009-2016, 2000-2016, and 2000-2016 respectively. Data from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and radio occultation (RO) technique were used during validation. As the measure of either positive or negative storm effect, the variation of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) from the monthly median values (denoted as _foF2) is modeled. The modeling of _foF2 is based on only storm time data with the criteria of Dst 6 -50 nT and Kp > 4. The modeling methods used in the study were artificial neural network (ANN), linear regression (LR) and polynomial functions. The approach taken was to first test the modeling techniques on a single station before expanding the study to cover the regional aspect. The single station modeling was developed based on ionosonde data over Grahamstown. The inputs for the model which related to seasonal variation, diurnal variation, geomagnetic activity and solar activity were considered. For the geomagnetic activity, three indices namely; the symmetric disturbance in the horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic field (SYM − H), the Auroral Electrojet (AE) index and local geomagnetic index A, were included as inputs. The performance of a single station model revealed that, of the three geomagnetic indices, SYM − H index has the largest contribution of 41% and 54% based on ANN and LR techniques respectively. The average correlation coefficients (R) for both ANN and LR models was 0.8, when validated during the selected storms falling within the period of model development. When validated using storms that fall outside the period of model development, the model gave R values of 0.6 and 0.5 for ANN and LR respectively. In addition, the GPS total electron content (TEC) derived measurements were used to estimate foF2 data. This is because there are more GPS receivers than ionosonde locations and the utilisation of this data increases the spatial coverage of the regional model. The estimation of foF2 from GPS TEC was done at GPS-ionosonde co-locations using polynomial functions. The average R values of 0.69 and 0.65 were obtained between actual and derived _foF2 over the co-locations and other GPS stations respectively. Validation of GPS TEC derived foF2 with RO data over regions out of ionospheric pierce points coverage with respect to ionosonde locations gave R greater than 0.9 for the selected storm period of 4-8 August 2011. The regional storm-time model was then developed based on the ANN technique using the four South African ionosonde stations. The maximum and minimum R values of 0.6 and 0.5 were obtained over ionosonde and GPS locations respectively. This model forms the basis towards the regional ionospheric storm-time index. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, Physics and Electronics, 2021
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- Date Issued: 2021-04
Validation of high frequency propagation prediction models over Africa
- Authors: Tshisaphungo, Mpho
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Ionospheric radio wave propagation , Ionospheric radio wave propagation -- Forecasting , Radio meteorology , Radio wave propagation -- Africa , Ionosphere -- Africa -- Radio waves , Atmospheric physics -- Africa , Shortwave radio -- Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5553 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1015239
- Description: The ionosphere is an important factor in high frequency (HF) radio propagation providing an opportunity to study ionospheric variability as well as the space weather conditions under which HF communication can take place. This thesis presents the validation of HF propagation conditions for the Ionospheric Communication Enhanced Profile Analysis and Circuit (ICEPAC) and Advanced Stand Alone Prediction System (ASAPS) models over Africa by comparing predictions with the measured data obtained from the International Beacon Project (IBP). Since these models were not developed using information on the African region, a more accurate HF propagation prediction tool is required. Two IBP transmitter stations are considered, Ruaraka, Kenya (1.24°S, 36.88°E) and Pretoria, South Africa (25.45°S, 28.10°E) with one beacon receiver station located in Hermanus, South Africa (34.27°S, 19.l2°E). The potential of these models in terms of HF propagation conditions is illustrated. An attempt to draw conclusions for future improvement of the models is also presented. Results show a low prediction accuracy for both ICEPAC and ASAPS models, although ICEPAC provided more accurate predictions for daily HF propagation conditions. This thesis suggests that the development of a new HF propagation prediction tool for the African region or the modification of one of the existing models to accommodate the African region, taking into account the importance of the African ionospheric region, should be considered as an option to ensure more accurate HF Propagation predictions over this region.
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- Date Issued: 2010