Determinants of the yield curve in South Africa
- Authors: Ngonyama, Nomasomi
- Date: 2014
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11496
- Description: The yield curve has been the subject of many studies for some time, mainly in predicting recessions, economic growth and inflation. However, scant work is available on what drives the yield spread. Given this, the paper examines the determinants of the yield curve in South Africa by using time series econometric analysis over the period 2000-2012. Some key variables considered include inflation, economic growth, budget deficit, and monetary policy. To separate the long and short run effects, VECM was employed after ensuring stationarity of the series. The study found that a long run relationship exist between the yield spread, inflation, GDP, budget deficit, Repo rate, Real effective exchange rate and a money supply (M1). The Results of this thesis have implications for policy and academic work.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Ngonyama, Nomasomi
- Date: 2014
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11496
- Description: The yield curve has been the subject of many studies for some time, mainly in predicting recessions, economic growth and inflation. However, scant work is available on what drives the yield spread. Given this, the paper examines the determinants of the yield curve in South Africa by using time series econometric analysis over the period 2000-2012. Some key variables considered include inflation, economic growth, budget deficit, and monetary policy. To separate the long and short run effects, VECM was employed after ensuring stationarity of the series. The study found that a long run relationship exist between the yield spread, inflation, GDP, budget deficit, Repo rate, Real effective exchange rate and a money supply (M1). The Results of this thesis have implications for policy and academic work.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
The impact of oil price changes on selected economic indicators in South Africa
- Authors: Vellem, Nomtha
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Petroleum industry and trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Interest rate futures -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11485 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1017862 , Petroleum industry and trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Interest rate futures -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa
- Description: The study examines the effect of oil price changes on selected economic indicators in South Africa. A VAR-5 model was applied to quarterly data of 1990:Q1-2012:Q4 estimating the impulse response functions, variance decomposition and Granger-causality tests. The findings allow for a conclusion that oil significantly affects the exchange rate and an inverse link between oil and GDP exists. A unidirectional relation is found where oil Granger-causes the exchange rate and GDP Granger-causes oil in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Vellem, Nomtha
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Petroleum industry and trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Interest rate futures -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11485 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1017862 , Petroleum industry and trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Interest rate futures -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa
- Description: The study examines the effect of oil price changes on selected economic indicators in South Africa. A VAR-5 model was applied to quarterly data of 1990:Q1-2012:Q4 estimating the impulse response functions, variance decomposition and Granger-causality tests. The findings allow for a conclusion that oil significantly affects the exchange rate and an inverse link between oil and GDP exists. A unidirectional relation is found where oil Granger-causes the exchange rate and GDP Granger-causes oil in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
The interaction between the stock market and macroeconomic variables in South Africa
- Authors: Ntshangase, Khanyisa
- Date: 2014
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11491 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1018271
- Description: This study investigates the interaction between stock market and macroeconomic variables in South Africa. Apart from the stock market being a channel to raise capital, another important role of the stock market is to provide correct valuation of stocks and promote efficient allocation of capital. This is important given the great need of investment capital in a country such as South Africa. Utilising quarterly data for the period from 1994 to 2012, the study employs the Johansen cointegration test and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyse the relationship between these important variables due to the simultaneous nature of the relationship between the variables. Empirical results indicate that all the variables have a significant relationship with the stock market. The findings in this study suggest that it is important to achieve macroeconomic equilibrium in South Africa because any disequilibrium in macroeconomics feeds into the stock market and it is likely to affect investor decision making and hence access to capital by companies listed on the stock exchange.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Ntshangase, Khanyisa
- Date: 2014
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11491 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1018271
- Description: This study investigates the interaction between stock market and macroeconomic variables in South Africa. Apart from the stock market being a channel to raise capital, another important role of the stock market is to provide correct valuation of stocks and promote efficient allocation of capital. This is important given the great need of investment capital in a country such as South Africa. Utilising quarterly data for the period from 1994 to 2012, the study employs the Johansen cointegration test and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyse the relationship between these important variables due to the simultaneous nature of the relationship between the variables. Empirical results indicate that all the variables have a significant relationship with the stock market. The findings in this study suggest that it is important to achieve macroeconomic equilibrium in South Africa because any disequilibrium in macroeconomics feeds into the stock market and it is likely to affect investor decision making and hence access to capital by companies listed on the stock exchange.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- «
- ‹
- 1
- ›
- »