Housing market dynamics and economic growth in South Africa (1994 – 2019)
- Authors: Muchaonyerwa, Forward
- Date: 2023-09
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Housing forecasting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28628 , vital:74477
- Description: The housing market contributes significantly to economic growth. On this background, the study examined South Africa’s housing market dynamics, particularly determinants of demand, supply, and formal housing prices. Furthermore, the study looked at the impact of housing prices on economic growth from 1994:Q1 to 2019:Q2. The study period is important as it covers the new political dispensation in South Africa where the country entered a new democracy in 1994. The first three objectives of the study were to identify the determinants of housing demand, supply, and prices. The theory of demand and supply provided the theoretical framework for these models. Estimation of the housing demand, supply and price models was done by the employing Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) technique. The Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS) model was estimated for robustness. Findings from SUR and 3SLS confirmed that Housing Demand (HD) is negatively and significantly influenced by residential Building Costs per Square Meter (BCSM), Housing Supply (HS) and Financial Costs (FC); and positively influenced by House Prices (HP). In addition, HS is negatively affected by BCSM, HD, Production Costs (PC) and Urban Population (UP); and positively influenced by HP and Residential Construction Confidence (RC). Lastly, HP are negatively affected by Prime Overdraft Rate (POR) and RC; and positively influenced by BCSM, HS, HD, Coincident Business Cycle Indicator (CBC) and residential Valuation (VAL). The fourth objective was to examine the impact of house prices on economic growth. An economic model was specified with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as its dependent variable. The new growth theory provided the theoretical framework for this model. The Johansen co-integration technique confirmed a long run-term relationship between economic growth and house prices. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was estimated to analyze the long and short run relationship among the variables. Empirical results confirmed that house prices have a positive impact on economic growth. Results further confirmed that CBC and Unemployment Rate (UR) are also positively related to GDP. POR and Leading Business Cycle indicator (LEBC) are negatively related to GDP. Granger Causality test was performed to analyze the causality between house prices and economic growth. The results indicated that there is a long run unidirectional causality from house prices to economic growth. With these results, the study recommends policy formation emanating from continuous research by establishing a human settlement agency or task team. The team can establish procedures for data collection and maintain a database for all kinds of housing market data. Their mandate includes research on commissioning of new towns and/or cities to boost housing supply. The government should avail more land and relax restrictive regulations and minimize red tape to ensure that houses are supplied to meet the growing demand as well as to stabilize prices. Policies to promote confidence and stabilize building costs are needed. These variables indicated significant influence on housing dynamics. It is also recommended to incentivize households to participate on the mortgage market. This assist both households through the wealth effect which positively influence increase in economic activity in South Africa. , Thesis (DCom) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
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Market participation and welfare of smallholder farmers in the Eastern Cape Province South Africa
- Authors: Lesala, Mahali Elizabeth https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9921-2190
- Date: 2021-06
- Subjects: Farms, Small , Economic development -- South Africa , Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/20916 , vital:46745
- Description: The low market participation of smallholder farmers in markets has received enormous attention from scholars, both in the country and the Eastern Cape Province. However, it is not clear how low their market participation is including its implications on farmer’s welfare. The purpose of the study was to determine the extent to which smallholder farmers in the homelands of the Eastern Cape participate in output markets and assess how their participation in markets has affected wellbeing of their households. This information will have important practical implications for policy regarding appropriate pathways for poverty alleviation and livelihoods improvements in the rural areas of the Eastern Cape Province. Three irrigation schemes; Qamata, Zanyokwe and Tyefu irrigation schemes were selected for this study. A sample of 210 smallholder irrigators were interviewed by means of a close-ended questionnaire. The data were analysed by means of descriptive statistical tools, the multiple-level choice models and the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) technique. SPSS and STATA computer programmes were used to carry out all the estimations. The analysis established that, although agriculture is the primary activity for rural livelihoods, it is not the main contributor to family income. Rather, remittances and social grants were the dominant sources of household income in the Qamata, Zanyokwe and Tyefu areas. From the standpoint of market, maize and potatoes are the most popular crops, but potatoes dominate the market. This result confirms that maize is the staple crop and therefore mostly grown for home consumption while production of potatoes is market-oriented. The Market Participation Index (MPI) revealed that farmers sell at least 55 percent of their farm produce, implying that farmers have made some transition from subsistence to semi-commercial farming. However, farmers’ priority still remains food self-sufficiency and market participation only takes place after satisfying their home food needs. The results revealed that the significant factors influencing the farmers’ decisions and their extent of participation in output markets were the age, gender, marital status of the household head, primary occupation of household head, size of farm cultivated, government financial support, access to extension services and farmer’s membership of cooperatives. Concerning the impact of output market participation on welfare of smallholders, the Average Treatment on the Treated (ATT) as the measure of change revealed that participation in output markets has a positive impact on welfare of the smallholder farmers through increased incomes. Farmers who participated in output market were at least R838.44 better off than those who did not participate in markets although social grants and remittances made significantly higher contribution to household welfare. The study suggests that despite some improvements in income of market participants, the standards of living of the rural households are still far from what would be considered optimal. Crop farming evidently contributes less than desired, hence the persistence of the widespread poverty. It is urgent to focus interventions on improving agricultural productivity while widening strategies for improving rural livelihoods beyond agriculture to diversify the choices open to rural dwellers. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 2021
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A critical assessment of economic policies and their impact on entrepreneurship development in South Africa: a case of Khayelitsha Township in Cape Town
- Authors: Oduwole, Olusola https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1563-7392
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Entrepreneurship , Economic policy , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/26302 , vital:65236
- Description: The complexity of the South African society due to past systematic exclusion of some communities from economic activities resulted in the triple challenge of poverty, inequality and unemployment. Although various economic policies had been developed since the advent of the democratic dispensation in 1994, these policies focused on levelling the economic environment, poverty alleviation and massive social security system. However, despite all the interventions, South Africa remains one of the most unequal societies in the world. This is profiled by the mushrooming of informal settlements around cities with job seekers and frequent protests by people who are impatient to experience improvement in their quality of life and who feel cheated out of their social contract. Advocacy from the governing party’s tripartite alliance towards a developmental state had placed more obligations on the government. This requires deliberate interventions through policies implementation to improve or at best alleviate the well-being of the citizenry. A survey conducted in the township of Khayelitsha to assess the impact of such economic policies on the development of entrepreneurship. Khayelitsha is one of South Africa’s largest townships, an informal settlement profiled by unemployment, poor infrastructure and unavailability of basic services. The study explored the entrepreneurial perception, start-up barriers, entrepreneurship climate, and general cultural factors relating to the environment of entrepreneurship development. The results reveal that despite the various economic policies, high level of unwillingness of citizens towards entrepreneurial activity and business venture is rife notwithstanding the high level of unemployment and poverty. The antidote to these challenges would be a rapid entrepreneurship drive among people most affected that would cause them to mind their own business” and become “masters of their own destinies. Given the complexity and massiveness of the challenges, the conclusion shows that a pragmatic solution is required. Therefore, the emancipation of entrepreneurship development in South Africa townships needs attention. The recommended solution is a pragmatic and innovative strategy based on the acronyms NEEDS HELP which stand for Neighbourhood Enhancement and Environmental Development Strategy and Holistic Entrepreneurial Lifestyle Programme. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2015
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