Effects of economic growth on greenhouse emissions
- Mkunyana, Asebenzile Priscilla
- Authors: Mkunyana, Asebenzile Priscilla
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Greenhouse gases -- Environmental aspects -- Africa , Climate change mitigation
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50404 , vital:42162
- Description: This study employs the panel cointegration and Pooled Mean Group technique to examine the effects of economic growth on greenhouse emissions using the panel data from the period of 1970 to 2014 for five Southern African Development Community group of countries. The increase in the combustion of burning fossil fuels has become the global threat in environmental quality. The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis postulates that at the primary stages of industrial economies there is more extracting of natural resources and more agricultural activities taking place as a result the waste generation and resource depletion accelerate. However, as the economic development improves more, the curve reaches a threshold where it starts to decline due to the increase in economic growth and the change to information-based industries. Based on the empirical evidence, the variables of this study were found to be stationary at first difference and integrated of I(0) and I(1) using Im, Pesaran & Shin W-stat, Fisher ADF, and Levin, Lin & Chu panel unit root test. The existing long-run relationship between the variables were found in both the Pedroni and Kao cointegration test and were significant at 5% in finding the relationship between the variables. The Pooled Mean Group demonstrated mixed results in the study’s regressions, monotonic relationship was found between carbon dioxide and economic growth. The strong existence relationship between economic growth and energy consumption was found to be significant at the 1% level. These results are in line with the EKC hypothesis, which assumes that as the income level increases the society will start to be environmentally friendly and the technology advancement will decrease the emission of pollutants. In addition, in finding the causal relationship between variables, the researcher used the Granger causality test, with the results from this test revealing a unidirectional and bidirectional relationship between all the chosen variables. These results are important for policy makers.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Mkunyana, Asebenzile Priscilla
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Greenhouse gases -- Environmental aspects -- Africa , Climate change mitigation
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50404 , vital:42162
- Description: This study employs the panel cointegration and Pooled Mean Group technique to examine the effects of economic growth on greenhouse emissions using the panel data from the period of 1970 to 2014 for five Southern African Development Community group of countries. The increase in the combustion of burning fossil fuels has become the global threat in environmental quality. The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis postulates that at the primary stages of industrial economies there is more extracting of natural resources and more agricultural activities taking place as a result the waste generation and resource depletion accelerate. However, as the economic development improves more, the curve reaches a threshold where it starts to decline due to the increase in economic growth and the change to information-based industries. Based on the empirical evidence, the variables of this study were found to be stationary at first difference and integrated of I(0) and I(1) using Im, Pesaran & Shin W-stat, Fisher ADF, and Levin, Lin & Chu panel unit root test. The existing long-run relationship between the variables were found in both the Pedroni and Kao cointegration test and were significant at 5% in finding the relationship between the variables. The Pooled Mean Group demonstrated mixed results in the study’s regressions, monotonic relationship was found between carbon dioxide and economic growth. The strong existence relationship between economic growth and energy consumption was found to be significant at the 1% level. These results are in line with the EKC hypothesis, which assumes that as the income level increases the society will start to be environmentally friendly and the technology advancement will decrease the emission of pollutants. In addition, in finding the causal relationship between variables, the researcher used the Granger causality test, with the results from this test revealing a unidirectional and bidirectional relationship between all the chosen variables. These results are important for policy makers.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Climate change mitigation strategies and its effect on economic change
- Authors: Roux, Louis Johannes
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Climatic changes -- Economic aspects , Climate change mitigation , Global warming -- Economic aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DBA
- Identifier: vital:8889 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020816
- Description: Scientists started to study the relationship between changing weather patterns and the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other harmful gasses. They soon discovered compelling evidence that CO2 concentration and other gases have been increasing and it was causing temperatures to increase in certain areas on the earth, which disturb historic weather patterns. Climate change has become a very popular field of study in the modern science. Europe first introduced measures to reduce carbon emissions but it was the Kyoto in 1997 where global leaders were asked to participate in a joint protocol to reduce greenhouse gases. South Africa responded to climate change challenges in 2008 with the Long term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS). The Integrated Resource Plan for electricity to 2030 was developed from the LTMS scenarios and after some major amendments it was accepted and promulgated by Government and has recently been included in the National Development Plan to 2030 (NDP). There are concerns about the achievability of some of the objectives listed in the NDP and this study explored the IRP2010 as the proposed strategy to meet energy demand and reduce emissions. The purpose for this study was to answer this question: Is there an optimum climate change mitigation strategy for South Africa and how can the effect thereof be simulated on economic growth? Through primary and secondary research during the study it was possible to define some 32 categories of energy producing assets that are commercially active or nearly market-ready. The characteristics of the various assets and the relevant fuel are defined in mathematical equations. It was found that the three portfolios that matched the 450TWh electricity requirement would perform substantially better than the NDP portfolio in terms of cost and similar on emissions with marginally fewer employment opportunities created. The proposed electricity strategy in this study was 390TWh and 33.5 Million tonnes of oil consumption by 2030. This strategy was substantially more affordable than the 450TWh strategy. Trends in the Supply and Use tables since 1993 were studied and then forecasted to 2030 to determine consumption levels on electricity and liquid fuel into the future. It was found that electricity demand is seriously overestimated and South Africa would end up with large excess capacity in electricity infrastructures if the NDP energy strategy (IRP2010) is implemented. It is concluded that the NDP energy strategy to 2030 is based on an incorrect electricity demand forecast. It would lead to excessive investment in an electricity infrastructure. Government has confirmed that part of the new infrastructure would be nuclear. It is also found that NDP has not clearly supported nuclear as part of the strategy. Nuclear is partly the reason why the capital requirement of the NDP portfolio is so much higher than the other portfolios. It is the conclusion of this study that South Africa do not need to invest in a nuclear build programme as the electricity demand would be adequately covered by adding the new Medupi and Kusile power stations, Ingula pump storage scheme, some wind and solar renewables, electricity from cogeneration, biogas, biomass, small hydro and imported hydro from neighbour countries. To invest in electricity capacity to generate 450TWh annually by 2030 would result in excessive energy cost, GDP growth could be up to 1% lower due to underperforming capital investments in the electricity infrastructure and higher energy cost would lead to a decline in global competitiveness.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Roux, Louis Johannes
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Climatic changes -- Economic aspects , Climate change mitigation , Global warming -- Economic aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DBA
- Identifier: vital:8889 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020816
- Description: Scientists started to study the relationship between changing weather patterns and the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other harmful gasses. They soon discovered compelling evidence that CO2 concentration and other gases have been increasing and it was causing temperatures to increase in certain areas on the earth, which disturb historic weather patterns. Climate change has become a very popular field of study in the modern science. Europe first introduced measures to reduce carbon emissions but it was the Kyoto in 1997 where global leaders were asked to participate in a joint protocol to reduce greenhouse gases. South Africa responded to climate change challenges in 2008 with the Long term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS). The Integrated Resource Plan for electricity to 2030 was developed from the LTMS scenarios and after some major amendments it was accepted and promulgated by Government and has recently been included in the National Development Plan to 2030 (NDP). There are concerns about the achievability of some of the objectives listed in the NDP and this study explored the IRP2010 as the proposed strategy to meet energy demand and reduce emissions. The purpose for this study was to answer this question: Is there an optimum climate change mitigation strategy for South Africa and how can the effect thereof be simulated on economic growth? Through primary and secondary research during the study it was possible to define some 32 categories of energy producing assets that are commercially active or nearly market-ready. The characteristics of the various assets and the relevant fuel are defined in mathematical equations. It was found that the three portfolios that matched the 450TWh electricity requirement would perform substantially better than the NDP portfolio in terms of cost and similar on emissions with marginally fewer employment opportunities created. The proposed electricity strategy in this study was 390TWh and 33.5 Million tonnes of oil consumption by 2030. This strategy was substantially more affordable than the 450TWh strategy. Trends in the Supply and Use tables since 1993 were studied and then forecasted to 2030 to determine consumption levels on electricity and liquid fuel into the future. It was found that electricity demand is seriously overestimated and South Africa would end up with large excess capacity in electricity infrastructures if the NDP energy strategy (IRP2010) is implemented. It is concluded that the NDP energy strategy to 2030 is based on an incorrect electricity demand forecast. It would lead to excessive investment in an electricity infrastructure. Government has confirmed that part of the new infrastructure would be nuclear. It is also found that NDP has not clearly supported nuclear as part of the strategy. Nuclear is partly the reason why the capital requirement of the NDP portfolio is so much higher than the other portfolios. It is the conclusion of this study that South Africa do not need to invest in a nuclear build programme as the electricity demand would be adequately covered by adding the new Medupi and Kusile power stations, Ingula pump storage scheme, some wind and solar renewables, electricity from cogeneration, biogas, biomass, small hydro and imported hydro from neighbour countries. To invest in electricity capacity to generate 450TWh annually by 2030 would result in excessive energy cost, GDP growth could be up to 1% lower due to underperforming capital investments in the electricity infrastructure and higher energy cost would lead to a decline in global competitiveness.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
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