Vulnerability assessment of wetland ecosystems to water demand, climate variability and land-use/cover change: The case of Die Vlei wetland, Eastern Cape province, South Africa
- Gwena, Kudzanai Rosebud https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1032-8937
- Authors: Gwena, Kudzanai Rosebud https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1032-8937
- Date: 2021-09
- Subjects: Water-supply , Climate change mitigation
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/22688 , vital:52656
- Description: Water scarcity is a major challenge in many different countries, particularly arid and or semi-arid like South Africa. Wetlands are one of the freshwater ecosystems that may assist in alleviating water scarcity because they are valuable not only as a water source for humans but also as an ecosystem of animals and plant species. However, wetlands have been experiencing rapid rates of vulnerability/risk due to alterations by population growth leading to enhanced water demand, climate variability, and human activities leading to land cover/land-use changes. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) are less financially taxing methods useful in studying water scarcity, as shown in this study. The study begins with a literature review presentation based on a desk study from predominantly academic publications and additional municipal and consultancy reports on the wetland ecosystem’s vulnerability/risk and focuses on applying GIS & RS in related studies. After that, the study conducts a vulnerability assessment using the Ramsar Convention’s wetland vulnerability assessment using the theoretical framework stages using GIS and RS technologies. The study hypothesizes that water demand, climate variability, and land-use/cover changes (LULC) are the tri-factor responsible for wetland vulnerability. It begins the assessment by first quantifying wetland water demand using the wetland water budget, ecosystem services and the Penman-Montheith-FAO (ETo) evapotranspiration index. Secondly, objectively representing climate variability on wetland vulnerability using trend analysis to measure rainfall and temperature variability. Thirdly, reconstructing LULC changes from multi-date remotely sensed SPOT imagery over ten years from 2007 to 2017 to identify and monitor impacts of trends. The vulnerability was assessed through a Principle Component Analysis (PCA) that identified relevant variables and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) to evaluate the wetland’s exposure. The study concludes that there is evidence of a possible increase in water demand whilst climate variability, which is estimated to have a 39% contribution to the wetland dynamics, is characterised by a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperatures. Lastly, LULC trends showed a marked increase in domestic and commercial farming, and farming has been identified as a wetland stressor of note. , Thesis (MPhil) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 2021
- Full Text:
- Authors: Gwena, Kudzanai Rosebud https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1032-8937
- Date: 2021-09
- Subjects: Water-supply , Climate change mitigation
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/22688 , vital:52656
- Description: Water scarcity is a major challenge in many different countries, particularly arid and or semi-arid like South Africa. Wetlands are one of the freshwater ecosystems that may assist in alleviating water scarcity because they are valuable not only as a water source for humans but also as an ecosystem of animals and plant species. However, wetlands have been experiencing rapid rates of vulnerability/risk due to alterations by population growth leading to enhanced water demand, climate variability, and human activities leading to land cover/land-use changes. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) are less financially taxing methods useful in studying water scarcity, as shown in this study. The study begins with a literature review presentation based on a desk study from predominantly academic publications and additional municipal and consultancy reports on the wetland ecosystem’s vulnerability/risk and focuses on applying GIS & RS in related studies. After that, the study conducts a vulnerability assessment using the Ramsar Convention’s wetland vulnerability assessment using the theoretical framework stages using GIS and RS technologies. The study hypothesizes that water demand, climate variability, and land-use/cover changes (LULC) are the tri-factor responsible for wetland vulnerability. It begins the assessment by first quantifying wetland water demand using the wetland water budget, ecosystem services and the Penman-Montheith-FAO (ETo) evapotranspiration index. Secondly, objectively representing climate variability on wetland vulnerability using trend analysis to measure rainfall and temperature variability. Thirdly, reconstructing LULC changes from multi-date remotely sensed SPOT imagery over ten years from 2007 to 2017 to identify and monitor impacts of trends. The vulnerability was assessed through a Principle Component Analysis (PCA) that identified relevant variables and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) to evaluate the wetland’s exposure. The study concludes that there is evidence of a possible increase in water demand whilst climate variability, which is estimated to have a 39% contribution to the wetland dynamics, is characterised by a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperatures. Lastly, LULC trends showed a marked increase in domestic and commercial farming, and farming has been identified as a wetland stressor of note. , Thesis (MPhil) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 2021
- Full Text:
Coastal urban climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction assessment: the case of East London city, South Africa
- Busayo, Emmanuel Tolulope https://orcid.org/ 0000-0002-9274-2145
- Authors: Busayo, Emmanuel Tolulope https://orcid.org/ 0000-0002-9274-2145
- Date: 2021-05
- Subjects: Climate change mitigation , Climatic changes , Emergency management
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/20938 , vital:46756
- Description: The increasing incidences of climate change and its registered negative effects have disturbed the entire world, with the coastal areas being the worst hit. Given the fact that coastal areas are becoming centres of global population settlement. An attempt to explore climate change-related disasters and risks is an important aspect in building communities' adaptation and resilience, especially for the most vulnerable global south. Consequently, climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) have become fundamentally linked to offering sustainable solutions to address climate change and related disaster risk problems witnessed frequently in recent years. However, the assessment of synergy between CCA and DRR for coastal areas remains fragmented, vague and limited, especially for Sub-Saharan Africa and thus the need for exploration. Furthermore, the urban populace and planning stakeholders are grappling with the challenges of seeking ways to integrate adaptation measures into human livelihoods and planning systems. Also, considering complex issues inhibiting sustainable planning, for example, poor communication of climate risks affecting coastal areas, little records of hazards disclosure and disaster history, inundation and/or sea level rise etc warranted further investigation. Accordingly, the synergies between CCA and DRR in addressing various climate change-related disaster risks, especially for the coastal areas and cities was explored in this study. To this end, given the complexity of CCA and DRR, trio-theories were adopted, which included Resilience Theory (RT), Social Vulnerability Theory (SVT) and Protective Motivation Theory (PMT) as the study’s theoretical underpinnings using East London Coastal City as a case study. Consequently, a multi-method approach was employed using a review of literature, bibliometric analysis, field survey, geographic information system (GIS), and remote sensing. The first objective reveals that there is a need for convergence and harmonisation of CCA and DRR policy, programme, and practice to improve sustainable planning outcomes. Accordingly, the study proposed the adoption of a problem analysis model (PAM) for place function sustainability and local or community level resilience building. The second objective revealed that the Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction has not been fully operationalised at the local and global scales. However, in South Africa, there are efforts to streamline DRR across manifold sectors through the Integrated Urban Development Framework (IUDF). Therefore, disaster risk managers and climate change adaptation stakeholders at the local level need to embrace the position of the SFDRR to possibly offer sound and sustainable results to the most vulnerable. In addition, a bibliometric analysis on climate change adaptation from 1996 – 2019 highlights the need for more African countries' engagement and cross-collaboration between developing and developed countries in CCA research to advance sustainable solutions and improve resilience. The third objective revealed the need for more awareness, flexibility, and adaptability among stakeholders at various levels as fundamental ingredients for CCA and DRR sustainable planning outcomes. The fourth objective highlighted that floods were recorded as the most predominant hydro-meteorological hazard (n=118, 81.9percent) in the East London, coastal city. Finally, the fifth objective portrayed that many communities, populace, buildings (types), and areas are exposed to flood disaster risks, especially, communities such as Nahoon Park Valley, Sunrise on Sea, Beacon Bay, Buffalo, Gonubie, and East London are among the most vulnerable. The study recommends that early action and warning systems should be adopted, and allocation proper building codes to boost awareness to reduce the potential flood disaster risks. Moreover, the study reveals the significance of local flood disaster risk mapping in advancing CCA and DRR to ensure the implementation of coherent spatial planning for sustainable planning outcomes. The overall lessons learnt from this study are vital in contributing to the attainment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) such as goal 11: sustainable cities and communities, and goal 13: climate action, including the seven targets and four priorities for action of the Sendai framework at a local level. The study results are deemed critical in guiding city planners, decision-makers, disaster risk managers, local communities among others towards the development of a more resilient coastal community. In general, the study calls for the integration of CCA and DRR initiatives to be premised on PAM for sustainable planning outcomes to achieve sustainable development goals and reduction of fatalities from climate-related disasters. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 2021
- Full Text:
- Authors: Busayo, Emmanuel Tolulope https://orcid.org/ 0000-0002-9274-2145
- Date: 2021-05
- Subjects: Climate change mitigation , Climatic changes , Emergency management
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/20938 , vital:46756
- Description: The increasing incidences of climate change and its registered negative effects have disturbed the entire world, with the coastal areas being the worst hit. Given the fact that coastal areas are becoming centres of global population settlement. An attempt to explore climate change-related disasters and risks is an important aspect in building communities' adaptation and resilience, especially for the most vulnerable global south. Consequently, climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) have become fundamentally linked to offering sustainable solutions to address climate change and related disaster risk problems witnessed frequently in recent years. However, the assessment of synergy between CCA and DRR for coastal areas remains fragmented, vague and limited, especially for Sub-Saharan Africa and thus the need for exploration. Furthermore, the urban populace and planning stakeholders are grappling with the challenges of seeking ways to integrate adaptation measures into human livelihoods and planning systems. Also, considering complex issues inhibiting sustainable planning, for example, poor communication of climate risks affecting coastal areas, little records of hazards disclosure and disaster history, inundation and/or sea level rise etc warranted further investigation. Accordingly, the synergies between CCA and DRR in addressing various climate change-related disaster risks, especially for the coastal areas and cities was explored in this study. To this end, given the complexity of CCA and DRR, trio-theories were adopted, which included Resilience Theory (RT), Social Vulnerability Theory (SVT) and Protective Motivation Theory (PMT) as the study’s theoretical underpinnings using East London Coastal City as a case study. Consequently, a multi-method approach was employed using a review of literature, bibliometric analysis, field survey, geographic information system (GIS), and remote sensing. The first objective reveals that there is a need for convergence and harmonisation of CCA and DRR policy, programme, and practice to improve sustainable planning outcomes. Accordingly, the study proposed the adoption of a problem analysis model (PAM) for place function sustainability and local or community level resilience building. The second objective revealed that the Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction has not been fully operationalised at the local and global scales. However, in South Africa, there are efforts to streamline DRR across manifold sectors through the Integrated Urban Development Framework (IUDF). Therefore, disaster risk managers and climate change adaptation stakeholders at the local level need to embrace the position of the SFDRR to possibly offer sound and sustainable results to the most vulnerable. In addition, a bibliometric analysis on climate change adaptation from 1996 – 2019 highlights the need for more African countries' engagement and cross-collaboration between developing and developed countries in CCA research to advance sustainable solutions and improve resilience. The third objective revealed the need for more awareness, flexibility, and adaptability among stakeholders at various levels as fundamental ingredients for CCA and DRR sustainable planning outcomes. The fourth objective highlighted that floods were recorded as the most predominant hydro-meteorological hazard (n=118, 81.9percent) in the East London, coastal city. Finally, the fifth objective portrayed that many communities, populace, buildings (types), and areas are exposed to flood disaster risks, especially, communities such as Nahoon Park Valley, Sunrise on Sea, Beacon Bay, Buffalo, Gonubie, and East London are among the most vulnerable. The study recommends that early action and warning systems should be adopted, and allocation proper building codes to boost awareness to reduce the potential flood disaster risks. Moreover, the study reveals the significance of local flood disaster risk mapping in advancing CCA and DRR to ensure the implementation of coherent spatial planning for sustainable planning outcomes. The overall lessons learnt from this study are vital in contributing to the attainment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) such as goal 11: sustainable cities and communities, and goal 13: climate action, including the seven targets and four priorities for action of the Sendai framework at a local level. The study results are deemed critical in guiding city planners, decision-makers, disaster risk managers, local communities among others towards the development of a more resilient coastal community. In general, the study calls for the integration of CCA and DRR initiatives to be premised on PAM for sustainable planning outcomes to achieve sustainable development goals and reduction of fatalities from climate-related disasters. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 2021
- Full Text:
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