Housing market dynamics and economic growth in South Africa (1994 – 2019)
- Authors: Muchaonyerwa, Forward
- Date: 2023-09
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Housing forecasting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/28628 , vital:74477
- Description: The housing market contributes significantly to economic growth. On this background, the study examined South Africa’s housing market dynamics, particularly determinants of demand, supply, and formal housing prices. Furthermore, the study looked at the impact of housing prices on economic growth from 1994:Q1 to 2019:Q2. The study period is important as it covers the new political dispensation in South Africa where the country entered a new democracy in 1994. The first three objectives of the study were to identify the determinants of housing demand, supply, and prices. The theory of demand and supply provided the theoretical framework for these models. Estimation of the housing demand, supply and price models was done by the employing Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) technique. The Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS) model was estimated for robustness. Findings from SUR and 3SLS confirmed that Housing Demand (HD) is negatively and significantly influenced by residential Building Costs per Square Meter (BCSM), Housing Supply (HS) and Financial Costs (FC); and positively influenced by House Prices (HP). In addition, HS is negatively affected by BCSM, HD, Production Costs (PC) and Urban Population (UP); and positively influenced by HP and Residential Construction Confidence (RC). Lastly, HP are negatively affected by Prime Overdraft Rate (POR) and RC; and positively influenced by BCSM, HS, HD, Coincident Business Cycle Indicator (CBC) and residential Valuation (VAL). The fourth objective was to examine the impact of house prices on economic growth. An economic model was specified with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as its dependent variable. The new growth theory provided the theoretical framework for this model. The Johansen co-integration technique confirmed a long run-term relationship between economic growth and house prices. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was estimated to analyze the long and short run relationship among the variables. Empirical results confirmed that house prices have a positive impact on economic growth. Results further confirmed that CBC and Unemployment Rate (UR) are also positively related to GDP. POR and Leading Business Cycle indicator (LEBC) are negatively related to GDP. Granger Causality test was performed to analyze the causality between house prices and economic growth. The results indicated that there is a long run unidirectional causality from house prices to economic growth. With these results, the study recommends policy formation emanating from continuous research by establishing a human settlement agency or task team. The team can establish procedures for data collection and maintain a database for all kinds of housing market data. Their mandate includes research on commissioning of new towns and/or cities to boost housing supply. The government should avail more land and relax restrictive regulations and minimize red tape to ensure that houses are supplied to meet the growing demand as well as to stabilize prices. Policies to promote confidence and stabilize building costs are needed. These variables indicated significant influence on housing dynamics. It is also recommended to incentivize households to participate on the mortgage market. This assist both households through the wealth effect which positively influence increase in economic activity in South Africa. , Thesis (DCom) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2023
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The impact of stock market development on economic growth: evidence from South Africa
- Authors: Vacu, Nomfundo Portia
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Stocks -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Stock market development , Economic growth , South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11655 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1006983 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Stocks -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Stock market development , Economic growth , South Africa
- Description: The main objective of this study is to examine the long run relationship between stock market development and economic growth in the case of South Africa. The study used quarterly data covering the period from 1990Q1 to 2010Q4. To empirically test the link between the two variables, the study used the Johnson’s cointegration approach and Granger causality so as to test the direction of the relationship. The Vector Error Correction Model was also employed to capture both short run and long run dynamics. Generally, the results reveal that a long run relationship exists between the two variables and the causality flows from economic growth to stock market development. Also, the extent to which of stock market development impacts on growth is statistically weak.
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The impact of capital flows on real exchange rates in South Africa
- Authors: Mishi, Syden
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Capital movements -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11466 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007089 , Capital movements -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa
- Description: The neoclassical theory suggests that free flows of external capital should be equilibrating and thereby facilitating smoothening of an economy's consumption or production patterns. South Africa has a very low savings rate, making it highly dependent on capital inflows which create instability and volatility in global markets. A policy dilemma is undoubtedly evident: capital inflows help to cater for the domestic low savings and at the same time the inflows pose instability, a threat on competitiveness and volatility challenges to the same economy due to their impact on exchange rates. The question is: are all forms of capital flows equally destabilizing? Since studies based on South Africa considered only the relationship between aggregate capital flows and real exchange rate, modelling individual components of capital flows could enlighten policy formulation even further. The composition of the flows and their effects on the composition of aggregate demand determine the evolution of real exchange rate response to surges in capital flows. Through co-integration and vector error correction modelling techniques applied to South African data between 1990 and 2010, the study found out that foreign portfolio investment exerts the greatest appreciation effect on the South African real exchange rate, followed by other investment and finally foreign direct investment. Thus the impact of capital flows on real exchange rate in South Africa differs by type of capital. This presents varied policy implications.
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