Impact of the global financial crisis on economic growth: implications for South Africa and other developing economies
- Authors: Savy, Neil Edward
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 , Gross domestic product -- Developing countries , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- Developing countries , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1117 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017542
- Description: This paper examines the impact of the recent global financial crisis on economic growth in developing economies and South Africa in particular. It explores whether the events experienced by developing countries conform to what would be anticipated from economic theory. This is done by firstly comparing country growth forecasts for 2012 captured in 2008 at the beginning of the crisis to actual 2012 GDP growth data. Secondly, panel data analysis is used to investigate three important transmission channels, namely those of Trade, Capital Flows and Exchange Rates for 25 developing economies. The results suggest that economic forecasters in 2008 on average overestimated GDP growth for 2012 by -21.6 percent (excluding Venezuela). The only important transmission channel identified using Trend analysis to explain this negative impact on growth was capital flows. However when using Panel regression analysis all three channels were found to explain the economic impact of the crisis on GDP growth for developing countries, conforming to economic theory. It was discovered that, contrary to what was initially expected, portfolio inflows actually increased for most developing countries during the crisis. This possibly can be explained by the impact of quantitative easing in the USA. South Africa was found to have been negatively impacted by the global financial crisis, but to a lesser extent when compared to most other developing countries. The findings are important for global investors looking for new investment opportunities. The extent to which individual economies are “decoupled” from developed economies’ performance provides possible opportunities for diversifying risk through a geographic spread of investor portfolios.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Savy, Neil Edward
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 , Gross domestic product -- Developing countries , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- Developing countries , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1117 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017542
- Description: This paper examines the impact of the recent global financial crisis on economic growth in developing economies and South Africa in particular. It explores whether the events experienced by developing countries conform to what would be anticipated from economic theory. This is done by firstly comparing country growth forecasts for 2012 captured in 2008 at the beginning of the crisis to actual 2012 GDP growth data. Secondly, panel data analysis is used to investigate three important transmission channels, namely those of Trade, Capital Flows and Exchange Rates for 25 developing economies. The results suggest that economic forecasters in 2008 on average overestimated GDP growth for 2012 by -21.6 percent (excluding Venezuela). The only important transmission channel identified using Trend analysis to explain this negative impact on growth was capital flows. However when using Panel regression analysis all three channels were found to explain the economic impact of the crisis on GDP growth for developing countries, conforming to economic theory. It was discovered that, contrary to what was initially expected, portfolio inflows actually increased for most developing countries during the crisis. This possibly can be explained by the impact of quantitative easing in the USA. South Africa was found to have been negatively impacted by the global financial crisis, but to a lesser extent when compared to most other developing countries. The findings are important for global investors looking for new investment opportunities. The extent to which individual economies are “decoupled” from developed economies’ performance provides possible opportunities for diversifying risk through a geographic spread of investor portfolios.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Possible scenarios for Africa's economic futures towards 2055
- Authors: Giyose, Dorrington
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Future, The
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: vital:8931 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1021188
- Description: This academic discourse is a research treatise that is submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Masters in Business Administration (MBA) degree at the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University (NMMU). Purpose – The purpose of this treatise is to develop four possible scenarios for Africa’s economic futures over the next 40 years, i.e. towards 2055. This study will expose the possible, probable, plausible, and preferable (desirable) scenarios for Africa towards 2055. Design/Methodology/Approach – This study employs a Futures Studies methodology that is known as scenario planning. The key variables of the scenarios are clustered as follows: Good governance and good economic growth; Good governance and bad economic growth; Bad governance and bad economic growth; as well as bad governance and good economic growth. Each of these scenarios begin with the current state of affairs in Africa. As such, the four scenarios in this study are informed by the current affairs in African countries as is internationally observed by scientists, researchers, as well as global views and opinions. Practical implications – This academic discourse provides useful insight into the causality relationship between the political, economic, sociological, technological, ecological, as well as legal factors (PESTEL factors) on the continent and the possible scenarios for Africa’s economic futures towards 2055. The aforementioned causality relationship between the abovementioned variables allows for insight into the drivers for change for Africa as well as in what way to anticipate these changes in accordance with scenario planning. Originality/Value: This treatise looks at the economic futures of Africa over the next 40 years from the point of view of African planners and African decision-makers.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Giyose, Dorrington
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Future, The
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: vital:8931 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1021188
- Description: This academic discourse is a research treatise that is submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Masters in Business Administration (MBA) degree at the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University (NMMU). Purpose – The purpose of this treatise is to develop four possible scenarios for Africa’s economic futures over the next 40 years, i.e. towards 2055. This study will expose the possible, probable, plausible, and preferable (desirable) scenarios for Africa towards 2055. Design/Methodology/Approach – This study employs a Futures Studies methodology that is known as scenario planning. The key variables of the scenarios are clustered as follows: Good governance and good economic growth; Good governance and bad economic growth; Bad governance and bad economic growth; as well as bad governance and good economic growth. Each of these scenarios begin with the current state of affairs in Africa. As such, the four scenarios in this study are informed by the current affairs in African countries as is internationally observed by scientists, researchers, as well as global views and opinions. Practical implications – This academic discourse provides useful insight into the causality relationship between the political, economic, sociological, technological, ecological, as well as legal factors (PESTEL factors) on the continent and the possible scenarios for Africa’s economic futures towards 2055. The aforementioned causality relationship between the abovementioned variables allows for insight into the drivers for change for Africa as well as in what way to anticipate these changes in accordance with scenario planning. Originality/Value: This treatise looks at the economic futures of Africa over the next 40 years from the point of view of African planners and African decision-makers.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Business cycles and stock market performance in South Africa
- Authors: Muchaonyerwa, Forward
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11460 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/312 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa
- Description: The study investigates the relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa for the period 2002-2009 using monthly data. This is done by constructing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study specifies a business cycle model with the business cycle coincident indicator (BC) regressed against, the All Share Price Index (ALSI), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), Money Supply (M1), Inflation (CPIX) and the Prime Overdraft Rate (POR). The ALSI represents stock market performance whilst the rest of the variables are to enhance model specification. The study found a positive relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa. The results also indicated that business cycles are positively related to the lagged variable of the coincident indicator and money supply. In addition, the findings also reveal that BC is negatively related to interest rates and the real effective exchange rate.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Muchaonyerwa, Forward
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11460 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/312 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa
- Description: The study investigates the relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa for the period 2002-2009 using monthly data. This is done by constructing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study specifies a business cycle model with the business cycle coincident indicator (BC) regressed against, the All Share Price Index (ALSI), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), Money Supply (M1), Inflation (CPIX) and the Prime Overdraft Rate (POR). The ALSI represents stock market performance whilst the rest of the variables are to enhance model specification. The study found a positive relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa. The results also indicated that business cycles are positively related to the lagged variable of the coincident indicator and money supply. In addition, the findings also reveal that BC is negatively related to interest rates and the real effective exchange rate.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
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