The yield spread as a predictor for buy or sell signals for sectoral indices of the JSE
- Authors: Roeber, Christine
- Date: 2023-10-13
- Subjects: Yield curve , Rate of return South Africa , Yield spread , Interest rate , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/419687 , vital:71666
- Description: The predictive nature of the yield curve has been of interest to researchers for years. In this thesis, the evidence for the yield curve as a predictor is examine, specifically as a predictor for bear markets in the JSE stock market for 8 sub-sectoral indices. The study explores a dynamic market timing strategy for timing the South African stock market compared to a normal buy-and-hold strategy. First, probit models are estimated for each of the sectoral indices which did not prove to have tracked well all the bear market phases. Then a dynamic market timing portfolio is simulated against a buy-and-hold only strategy, the dynamic market timing portfolio proved to have outperformed a buy-and-hold strategy for almost all the indices. Thus, a Henriksson-Merton parametric model test which tests for market timing ability was done on these sub-indices. The research finds that the yield curve in South Africa is not a useful tool for a buy-sell strategy for most of the sub-sectoral indices of the JSE. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-10-13
- Authors: Roeber, Christine
- Date: 2023-10-13
- Subjects: Yield curve , Rate of return South Africa , Yield spread , Interest rate , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/419687 , vital:71666
- Description: The predictive nature of the yield curve has been of interest to researchers for years. In this thesis, the evidence for the yield curve as a predictor is examine, specifically as a predictor for bear markets in the JSE stock market for 8 sub-sectoral indices. The study explores a dynamic market timing strategy for timing the South African stock market compared to a normal buy-and-hold strategy. First, probit models are estimated for each of the sectoral indices which did not prove to have tracked well all the bear market phases. Then a dynamic market timing portfolio is simulated against a buy-and-hold only strategy, the dynamic market timing portfolio proved to have outperformed a buy-and-hold strategy for almost all the indices. Thus, a Henriksson-Merton parametric model test which tests for market timing ability was done on these sub-indices. The research finds that the yield curve in South Africa is not a useful tool for a buy-sell strategy for most of the sub-sectoral indices of the JSE. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-10-13
The relationship between business model description and financial performance of selected South African banks
- Authors: Mothabine, Thabe
- Date: 2021-10-29
- Subjects: Banks and banking South Africa , Business planning South Africa , Organizational effectiveness South Africa , Banks and banking Econometric models , Rate of return South Africa , International Integrated Reporting Council , CAMELS (Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity, and Sensitivity) Rating System model
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/191876 , vital:45174
- Description:
The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between South Africa’s top seven bank’s business model description and their financial performance. Research has highlighted that there is a relationship between business models and performance, however, a limited amount of studies have provided empirical evidence to this effect. The study followed a deductive approach by firstly assessing and analysing the components of the banks business model according to the IIRC’s International
Framework, and then comparing the components focus of each bank for every year of this study; followed by an assessment, analyses and evaluation of each banks financial performance using the CAMELS Rating System model. Once these analyses were done for both business model description and financial performance, the study attempted to assess if the banks with the richest business model description yielded the best financial performance. The findings revealed that the banks with the richest business model description were not necessarily the best performing banks, in actual fact, these banks had low ratings for their performance, and the banks with the lowest rating for their business model description had the highest financial performance rating. However, other factors contributed to these ratings, such as some banks had low ratings for their business model description due to their business models not following the Framework. Conversely, for a more detailed and an in depth analysis and to distinguish whether there is a relationship between business model description and financial performance, the study applied correlation coefficient by using the business model description scores and financial performance components scores for each bank for the three years. The results revealed that there was a strong positive correlation between 2017 and 2018, and a weak positive correlation in 2019. This meant that indeed there was a relationship between the business model description and the bank’s financial performance. While the limitations of this study have been acknowledged, the study has contributed to the knowledge of understanding the relationship between business models and financial performance in a South African context. However, further research could be conducted on more banks in order to deduct a broader view on the relationship between business model description and financial performance of South African banks. Moreover, it would be of greater significance to conduct the various analyses over a longer period of time, because with a broader scope of data, for a longer period, more conclusive findings could be possible. , Thesis (MBA) -- Faculty of Commerce, Rhodes Business School, 2021 - Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-10-29
- Authors: Mothabine, Thabe
- Date: 2021-10-29
- Subjects: Banks and banking South Africa , Business planning South Africa , Organizational effectiveness South Africa , Banks and banking Econometric models , Rate of return South Africa , International Integrated Reporting Council , CAMELS (Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity, and Sensitivity) Rating System model
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/191876 , vital:45174
- Description:
The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between South Africa’s top seven bank’s business model description and their financial performance. Research has highlighted that there is a relationship between business models and performance, however, a limited amount of studies have provided empirical evidence to this effect. The study followed a deductive approach by firstly assessing and analysing the components of the banks business model according to the IIRC’s International
Framework, and then comparing the components focus of each bank for every year of this study; followed by an assessment, analyses and evaluation of each banks financial performance using the CAMELS Rating System model. Once these analyses were done for both business model description and financial performance, the study attempted to assess if the banks with the richest business model description yielded the best financial performance. The findings revealed that the banks with the richest business model description were not necessarily the best performing banks, in actual fact, these banks had low ratings for their performance, and the banks with the lowest rating for their business model description had the highest financial performance rating. However, other factors contributed to these ratings, such as some banks had low ratings for their business model description due to their business models not following the Framework. Conversely, for a more detailed and an in depth analysis and to distinguish whether there is a relationship between business model description and financial performance, the study applied correlation coefficient by using the business model description scores and financial performance components scores for each bank for the three years. The results revealed that there was a strong positive correlation between 2017 and 2018, and a weak positive correlation in 2019. This meant that indeed there was a relationship between the business model description and the bank’s financial performance. While the limitations of this study have been acknowledged, the study has contributed to the knowledge of understanding the relationship between business models and financial performance in a South African context. However, further research could be conducted on more banks in order to deduct a broader view on the relationship between business model description and financial performance of South African banks. Moreover, it would be of greater significance to conduct the various analyses over a longer period of time, because with a broader scope of data, for a longer period, more conclusive findings could be possible. , Thesis (MBA) -- Faculty of Commerce, Rhodes Business School, 2021 - Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-10-29
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