A comparative analysis of the determinants of South Africa bilateral trade flows with the European Union-Southern African development community economic partnership agreement and trade development and cooperation agreement
- Authors: Mhaka, Simbarashe
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: South Africa -- Economic integration , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Southern African Customs Union
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/31875 , vital:31857
- Description: This research dissertation presents the impact of economic size, market size and exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows with the European Union under the Trade Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA). The Big Five EU members are used to represent the EU trading bloc. The research also examines the effects of economic size, market size and ex-change rate on South African trade flows with members of the Southern African Customs Union and of the European Union in what is called the European Union-Southern African Development Community Economic Partnership Agreement (EU-SADC EPA). The research employs comparative analysis aimed at identifying the differences in the effects of market size, economic size and exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows with these two trading blocs. The study exploits panel data on international trade of South Africa over the period 2000-’16. A gravity model of trade is used to identify the effect of these three variables on South Africa’s trade flows. The empirical analysis relies on a panel data econometrics framework as an estimation technique for the gravity model of trade between South Africa and the Big Five EU members. This shows the outcomes of the effects of economic size, market size and exchange rate on the trade flows of South Africa in the TDCA. The same technique is applied to estimate the effects of economic size, market size and exchange rate to trade flows of South Africa with the Big Five EU members as well as the other SACU members representing the SADC-EU EPA. In the panel data approach, three models are adopted. These are pooled OLS, fixed effects and random effects that can be estimated. The Hausman tests shows that the random effect is appropriate in the TDCA gravity function and the results indicate a positive relationship be-tween South Africa’s economic/market size and South Africa’s trade flows in the TDCA. In the EU-SADC EPA, the Hausman tests indicated that the fixed effect models are appropriate and the results show a positive relationship between economic size and market size with South Africa’s trade flows in the EU-SADC EPA. However, in the TDCA, the random effect model shows that exchange rate and the trading partner’s market size have a negative outcome on South Africa trade flows. The fixed effect model shows a negative relationship between the exchange rate and South Africa’s trade flows in the EU-SADC EPA. The results also show that it is better for South Africa to trade in the EU-SADC EPA than to remain in the TDCA. This is because the outcomes of economic and market size on South Africa’s trade flows are greater in the EU-SADC EPA than in the TDCA. On the other hand the negative effect of the exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows is less in the EU-SADC EPA than in the TDCA. The research recommends that policy-makers select trading partners based on the sizes of their markets and economies.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Mhaka, Simbarashe
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: South Africa -- Economic integration , Africa, Southern -- Economic integration , Southern African Customs Union
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/31875 , vital:31857
- Description: This research dissertation presents the impact of economic size, market size and exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows with the European Union under the Trade Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA). The Big Five EU members are used to represent the EU trading bloc. The research also examines the effects of economic size, market size and ex-change rate on South African trade flows with members of the Southern African Customs Union and of the European Union in what is called the European Union-Southern African Development Community Economic Partnership Agreement (EU-SADC EPA). The research employs comparative analysis aimed at identifying the differences in the effects of market size, economic size and exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows with these two trading blocs. The study exploits panel data on international trade of South Africa over the period 2000-’16. A gravity model of trade is used to identify the effect of these three variables on South Africa’s trade flows. The empirical analysis relies on a panel data econometrics framework as an estimation technique for the gravity model of trade between South Africa and the Big Five EU members. This shows the outcomes of the effects of economic size, market size and exchange rate on the trade flows of South Africa in the TDCA. The same technique is applied to estimate the effects of economic size, market size and exchange rate to trade flows of South Africa with the Big Five EU members as well as the other SACU members representing the SADC-EU EPA. In the panel data approach, three models are adopted. These are pooled OLS, fixed effects and random effects that can be estimated. The Hausman tests shows that the random effect is appropriate in the TDCA gravity function and the results indicate a positive relationship be-tween South Africa’s economic/market size and South Africa’s trade flows in the TDCA. In the EU-SADC EPA, the Hausman tests indicated that the fixed effect models are appropriate and the results show a positive relationship between economic size and market size with South Africa’s trade flows in the EU-SADC EPA. However, in the TDCA, the random effect model shows that exchange rate and the trading partner’s market size have a negative outcome on South Africa trade flows. The fixed effect model shows a negative relationship between the exchange rate and South Africa’s trade flows in the EU-SADC EPA. The results also show that it is better for South Africa to trade in the EU-SADC EPA than to remain in the TDCA. This is because the outcomes of economic and market size on South Africa’s trade flows are greater in the EU-SADC EPA than in the TDCA. On the other hand the negative effect of the exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows is less in the EU-SADC EPA than in the TDCA. The research recommends that policy-makers select trading partners based on the sizes of their markets and economies.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Towards a developed regional order: which way forward southern Africa?
- Authors: Blaauw, Abraham Lesley
- Date: 1997
- Subjects: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa , Regional planning -- Africa, Southern , Regional planning -- South Africa , Southern African Customs Union , Southern African Development Community , Africa, Southern -- Economic conditions , Africa, Southern -- Politics and government -- 1975-1994
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:2760 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002970 , Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa , Regional planning -- Africa, Southern , Regional planning -- South Africa , Southern African Customs Union , Southern African Development Community , Africa, Southern -- Economic conditions , Africa, Southern -- Politics and government -- 1975-1994
- Description: The regionalisation of politics on a global scale, Call be seen as one of the defining features of contemporary international relations. Given this phenomenon, the tasks which confronted this thesis, was to consider the conditions and requirements necessary within the Southern African region to build an all-embracing developed regional order. The urgency with which the latter task should be undertaken, is premised on an increased realisation that the region, and indeed the continent as a whole, are becoming of lesser significance in international affairs. However, a number of impediments will have to be overcome, before the goal of a developed regional order can be achieved, which will contribute to lasting security in the region. Foremost amongst many issues, is how to employ the approaches to integration, in attempting to explain how the goal of a developed order should be achieved. A second problem which this thesis was confronted with, relates to which organisation shoulO be' considered the best vehicle, to drive the integration process forward- COMESA, SACU or SADC. The decision take SADC as the organisation to drive the integration process forward, is premised on a number of factors. Amongst many, it qualifies in geographical terms as a region, the historical linkages of the countries of the region (based on their fight against apartheid, division of labour, etc.), serves as a basis for building a sense of community. Thirdly its institutions can be developed to achieve the goal of an all-embracing regional order. Lastly and most importantly, SADC realises that regional integration will remain unattainable without the involvement of the peoples of Southern Africa. The identification of the organisation to drive the integration process forward, serves to bolster moves towards a maximalist order. However, significant changes in the structure and institutions of SADC is necessary, before it can be considered an all-embracing and developed regional order. Not suprisingly, therefore, we have witness a number of institutional changes to the SADC structures. Amongst many, the establishment of the Organ on Politics, Defence and Security , the signing of the SADC Trade Facilitation Protocol, and the commitment to democracy and a human rights culture, are most significant and will, it is hoped, provide the building-blocks for deeper integration in Southern Africa. Apart from the above, which occur between and among the states of the region, steps are underway between and among the agents of civil society to work closely with each other, to establish a regional civil society. Most notably, the establishment of a media society for Southern Africa, the calls by COSATU for a Social Charter with a regional flavour, the establishment of environmental and human rights networks, and the support for the Gay and Lesbian Movement of Zimbabwe (GALZ), represent landmarks, in the search for a developed regional order. However, the reluctance of the governments of the Southern African countries, to consult with the NGOs, before the adoption of the Organ Politics, clearly bears testimony to their present inability to take the necessary steps needed to move from a minimalist to a maximalist conception of regional organisation. The suggestion of this thesis is that the move-away from minimalism to maximalism can be facilitated by the development of a political centre-around which both governments and NGO activities can be articulated, since both are primarily concerned with the security and welfare of the Southern African region.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1997
- Authors: Blaauw, Abraham Lesley
- Date: 1997
- Subjects: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa , Regional planning -- Africa, Southern , Regional planning -- South Africa , Southern African Customs Union , Southern African Development Community , Africa, Southern -- Economic conditions , Africa, Southern -- Politics and government -- 1975-1994
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:2760 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002970 , Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa , Regional planning -- Africa, Southern , Regional planning -- South Africa , Southern African Customs Union , Southern African Development Community , Africa, Southern -- Economic conditions , Africa, Southern -- Politics and government -- 1975-1994
- Description: The regionalisation of politics on a global scale, Call be seen as one of the defining features of contemporary international relations. Given this phenomenon, the tasks which confronted this thesis, was to consider the conditions and requirements necessary within the Southern African region to build an all-embracing developed regional order. The urgency with which the latter task should be undertaken, is premised on an increased realisation that the region, and indeed the continent as a whole, are becoming of lesser significance in international affairs. However, a number of impediments will have to be overcome, before the goal of a developed regional order can be achieved, which will contribute to lasting security in the region. Foremost amongst many issues, is how to employ the approaches to integration, in attempting to explain how the goal of a developed order should be achieved. A second problem which this thesis was confronted with, relates to which organisation shoulO be' considered the best vehicle, to drive the integration process forward- COMESA, SACU or SADC. The decision take SADC as the organisation to drive the integration process forward, is premised on a number of factors. Amongst many, it qualifies in geographical terms as a region, the historical linkages of the countries of the region (based on their fight against apartheid, division of labour, etc.), serves as a basis for building a sense of community. Thirdly its institutions can be developed to achieve the goal of an all-embracing regional order. Lastly and most importantly, SADC realises that regional integration will remain unattainable without the involvement of the peoples of Southern Africa. The identification of the organisation to drive the integration process forward, serves to bolster moves towards a maximalist order. However, significant changes in the structure and institutions of SADC is necessary, before it can be considered an all-embracing and developed regional order. Not suprisingly, therefore, we have witness a number of institutional changes to the SADC structures. Amongst many, the establishment of the Organ on Politics, Defence and Security , the signing of the SADC Trade Facilitation Protocol, and the commitment to democracy and a human rights culture, are most significant and will, it is hoped, provide the building-blocks for deeper integration in Southern Africa. Apart from the above, which occur between and among the states of the region, steps are underway between and among the agents of civil society to work closely with each other, to establish a regional civil society. Most notably, the establishment of a media society for Southern Africa, the calls by COSATU for a Social Charter with a regional flavour, the establishment of environmental and human rights networks, and the support for the Gay and Lesbian Movement of Zimbabwe (GALZ), represent landmarks, in the search for a developed regional order. However, the reluctance of the governments of the Southern African countries, to consult with the NGOs, before the adoption of the Organ Politics, clearly bears testimony to their present inability to take the necessary steps needed to move from a minimalist to a maximalist conception of regional organisation. The suggestion of this thesis is that the move-away from minimalism to maximalism can be facilitated by the development of a political centre-around which both governments and NGO activities can be articulated, since both are primarily concerned with the security and welfare of the Southern African region.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1997
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