Business cycles and stock market performance in South Africa
- Authors: Muchaonyerwa, Forward
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11460 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/312 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa
- Description: The study investigates the relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa for the period 2002-2009 using monthly data. This is done by constructing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study specifies a business cycle model with the business cycle coincident indicator (BC) regressed against, the All Share Price Index (ALSI), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), Money Supply (M1), Inflation (CPIX) and the Prime Overdraft Rate (POR). The ALSI represents stock market performance whilst the rest of the variables are to enhance model specification. The study found a positive relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa. The results also indicated that business cycles are positively related to the lagged variable of the coincident indicator and money supply. In addition, the findings also reveal that BC is negatively related to interest rates and the real effective exchange rate.
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- Authors: Muchaonyerwa, Forward
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11460 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/312 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa
- Description: The study investigates the relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa for the period 2002-2009 using monthly data. This is done by constructing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study specifies a business cycle model with the business cycle coincident indicator (BC) regressed against, the All Share Price Index (ALSI), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), Money Supply (M1), Inflation (CPIX) and the Prime Overdraft Rate (POR). The ALSI represents stock market performance whilst the rest of the variables are to enhance model specification. The study found a positive relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa. The results also indicated that business cycles are positively related to the lagged variable of the coincident indicator and money supply. In addition, the findings also reveal that BC is negatively related to interest rates and the real effective exchange rate.
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Fiscal policy and unemployment in South Africa 1980 to 2010
- Authors: Murwirapachena, Genius
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Fiscal policy -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Labor economics -- South Africa , Unemployment -- South Africa , Labor policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11458 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/544 , Fiscal policy -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Labor economics -- South Africa , Unemployment -- South Africa , Labor policy -- South Africa
- Description: Unemployment is one of the greatest and most complex challenges facing South Africa. Just like most developing countries, South Africa has been using the fiscal policy framework as a tool to alleviate the high rates of unemployment. This study examined the impact of fiscal policy on unemployment in South Africa. The study used annual time series data for the period 1980 to 2010. A vector error correction model was used to determine the effects of fiscal policy aggregates on unemployment in South Africa. The fiscal policy aggregates considered in this study were government investment expenditure, government consumption expenditure and tax. Results from this study revealed that government consumption expenditure and tax have a positive impact on unemployment while government investment expenditure negatively affects unemployment in South Africa. Policy recommendations were made using these results.
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- Authors: Murwirapachena, Genius
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Fiscal policy -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Labor economics -- South Africa , Unemployment -- South Africa , Labor policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11458 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/544 , Fiscal policy -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Labor economics -- South Africa , Unemployment -- South Africa , Labor policy -- South Africa
- Description: Unemployment is one of the greatest and most complex challenges facing South Africa. Just like most developing countries, South Africa has been using the fiscal policy framework as a tool to alleviate the high rates of unemployment. This study examined the impact of fiscal policy on unemployment in South Africa. The study used annual time series data for the period 1980 to 2010. A vector error correction model was used to determine the effects of fiscal policy aggregates on unemployment in South Africa. The fiscal policy aggregates considered in this study were government investment expenditure, government consumption expenditure and tax. Results from this study revealed that government consumption expenditure and tax have a positive impact on unemployment while government investment expenditure negatively affects unemployment in South Africa. Policy recommendations were made using these results.
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