Impact of sovereign credit ratings on emerging bond and stock market returns
- Authors: Mkhonto, Zoyisile
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Rating agencies (Finance) , Credit ratings , Bond market
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/177170 , vital:42796
- Description: The primary role of credit rating agencies is to reduce asymmetric information between the parties in a lending relationship. The three major rating agencies have received extensive criticism over the years. These rating agencies have been accused of providing inaccurate ratings which ultimately led to various financial calamities. Late rating action has also been blamed for exacerbating financial and economic cycles. Moreover, there is an argument that emerging markets are unfairly rated in comparison to developed economies. Hence, the reliability and informational value of the assessments provided by credit rating agencies is met with scepticism. Despite these criticisms, rating agencies are characterised as gatekeepers to capital and credit ratings remain essential financial market indicators. Albeit, the literature regarding the impact of sovereign credit ratings on bond and stock markets is inconclusive. This study aims to add to the body of literature and provide insights into the informational value of sovereign credit ratings in emerging markets. More specifically to estimate the relationship between various sovereign credit rating announcements, and bond and stock market returns. Also, to examine whether sovereign credit ratings have a differential impact between bond and stock markets. As well as address the question does it matter who provides the rating? Using an event study, abnormal returns surrounding rating announcements from 2009 to 2019 for 24 emerging markets were analyzed. Firstly, this study concluded that sovereign credit ratings are informative. Secondly, the degree of informativeness differs between the bond and stock markets. Thirdly, an asymmetrical impact was observed between the types of rating announcements. Lastly, that it does matter which rating agency provides the rating because each agency has a unique reputation. The findings of this research have implications on how investors and portfolio managers decide on asset allocation. Furthermore, policymakers may find our investment grade analysis of value when evaluating regulatory reform. It’s recommended that future research refines the event methodology and examines country specific characteristics within each of the emerging markets. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Mkhonto, Zoyisile
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Rating agencies (Finance) , Credit ratings , Bond market
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/177170 , vital:42796
- Description: The primary role of credit rating agencies is to reduce asymmetric information between the parties in a lending relationship. The three major rating agencies have received extensive criticism over the years. These rating agencies have been accused of providing inaccurate ratings which ultimately led to various financial calamities. Late rating action has also been blamed for exacerbating financial and economic cycles. Moreover, there is an argument that emerging markets are unfairly rated in comparison to developed economies. Hence, the reliability and informational value of the assessments provided by credit rating agencies is met with scepticism. Despite these criticisms, rating agencies are characterised as gatekeepers to capital and credit ratings remain essential financial market indicators. Albeit, the literature regarding the impact of sovereign credit ratings on bond and stock markets is inconclusive. This study aims to add to the body of literature and provide insights into the informational value of sovereign credit ratings in emerging markets. More specifically to estimate the relationship between various sovereign credit rating announcements, and bond and stock market returns. Also, to examine whether sovereign credit ratings have a differential impact between bond and stock markets. As well as address the question does it matter who provides the rating? Using an event study, abnormal returns surrounding rating announcements from 2009 to 2019 for 24 emerging markets were analyzed. Firstly, this study concluded that sovereign credit ratings are informative. Secondly, the degree of informativeness differs between the bond and stock markets. Thirdly, an asymmetrical impact was observed between the types of rating announcements. Lastly, that it does matter which rating agency provides the rating because each agency has a unique reputation. The findings of this research have implications on how investors and portfolio managers decide on asset allocation. Furthermore, policymakers may find our investment grade analysis of value when evaluating regulatory reform. It’s recommended that future research refines the event methodology and examines country specific characteristics within each of the emerging markets. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
Investment-grade or “junk” status: do sovereign credit ratings really matter?
- Authors: Slabbert, Adriaan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Credit ratings , Rating agencies (Finance) , Developing countries -- Economic conditions , Developing countries -- Foreign economic relations
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/97067 , vital:31393
- Description: Credit ratings play a well-established part in modern financial markets, reducing asymmetric information between investors and borrowers. In particular, sovereign credit ratings allow the world’s lesser-known economies to access a wider pool of international capital, while simultaneously allowing international investors to access a more diverse set of investment opportunities. The importance of sovereign credit ratings in terms of the cost of government debt in developing nations was observed. The relationship between sovereign credit ratings and average bond spreads over the time period spanning 2006 – 2017 was examined in 25 emerging economies. Regression analysis in the form of fixed-effects and random-effects models was used to determine the impact of changes in sovereign credit ratings on the cost of sovereign debt, controlling for certain macroeconomic factors. It was concluded that sovereign credit ratings are relevant in helping to determine the cost of sovereign debt for developing economies, but that they are not the only factor considered by global markets. The thesis therefore recommended further research into the factors affecting the cost of sovereign debt as well as further refinements to the methodologies that ratings agencies use to assign ratings.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Slabbert, Adriaan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Credit ratings , Rating agencies (Finance) , Developing countries -- Economic conditions , Developing countries -- Foreign economic relations
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/97067 , vital:31393
- Description: Credit ratings play a well-established part in modern financial markets, reducing asymmetric information between investors and borrowers. In particular, sovereign credit ratings allow the world’s lesser-known economies to access a wider pool of international capital, while simultaneously allowing international investors to access a more diverse set of investment opportunities. The importance of sovereign credit ratings in terms of the cost of government debt in developing nations was observed. The relationship between sovereign credit ratings and average bond spreads over the time period spanning 2006 – 2017 was examined in 25 emerging economies. Regression analysis in the form of fixed-effects and random-effects models was used to determine the impact of changes in sovereign credit ratings on the cost of sovereign debt, controlling for certain macroeconomic factors. It was concluded that sovereign credit ratings are relevant in helping to determine the cost of sovereign debt for developing economies, but that they are not the only factor considered by global markets. The thesis therefore recommended further research into the factors affecting the cost of sovereign debt as well as further refinements to the methodologies that ratings agencies use to assign ratings.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The determinants of credit default swap spreads in emerging market economies
- Authors: Matakane, Lwazi
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Bank loans -- BRIC countries , Risk management -- BRIC countries , Swaps (Finance) -- BRIC countries , BRIC countries -- Economic conditions , Rating agencies (Finance)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/7142 , vital:21221
- Description: Emerging markets have become a destination for international portfolio flows as a result of global financial integration. This has allowed exogenous factors like sentiment and developed country monetary policy to affect developing countries capital markets and macroeconomic fundamentals. This study analyses the impact of investor sentiment alongside US monetary policy, country specific risks, inflation and domestic stock returns on the BRICS credit default spreads. To investigate this relationship, the study uses panel data and a fixed effects model. The results of the panel regressions suggest that all variables had an impact on the variation of BRICS credit default spreads however the crisis may have distorted the relationship among the variables. Sovereign ratings had an inverse relationship depicting a rise in ratings decreasing the credit default premium. This was in line with a priori expectations. Domestic company earnings also had an inverse relationship with BRCIS credit default premia, the magnitude of which is dependent on the value of the index. This is to say the higher the index, the more significant the effect on the BRICS default premium. US monetary policy was significant and in line with expectations of a linear relationship between emerging market credit default spreads when controlling for the crisis. In the crisis period however, results depicted an inverse relationship going against a priori expectations. The inflation variable was found to have a greater impact on CDS spreads during the crisis period, while the VIX index had a linear relationship with the default premia albeit the impact was not highly significant. The study concludes that the financial crisis was an important event that affected the relationship of these variables with BRICS country default spreads and had read through to market participant’s behaviour at the time.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: Matakane, Lwazi
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Bank loans -- BRIC countries , Risk management -- BRIC countries , Swaps (Finance) -- BRIC countries , BRIC countries -- Economic conditions , Rating agencies (Finance)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/7142 , vital:21221
- Description: Emerging markets have become a destination for international portfolio flows as a result of global financial integration. This has allowed exogenous factors like sentiment and developed country monetary policy to affect developing countries capital markets and macroeconomic fundamentals. This study analyses the impact of investor sentiment alongside US monetary policy, country specific risks, inflation and domestic stock returns on the BRICS credit default spreads. To investigate this relationship, the study uses panel data and a fixed effects model. The results of the panel regressions suggest that all variables had an impact on the variation of BRICS credit default spreads however the crisis may have distorted the relationship among the variables. Sovereign ratings had an inverse relationship depicting a rise in ratings decreasing the credit default premium. This was in line with a priori expectations. Domestic company earnings also had an inverse relationship with BRCIS credit default premia, the magnitude of which is dependent on the value of the index. This is to say the higher the index, the more significant the effect on the BRICS default premium. US monetary policy was significant and in line with expectations of a linear relationship between emerging market credit default spreads when controlling for the crisis. In the crisis period however, results depicted an inverse relationship going against a priori expectations. The inflation variable was found to have a greater impact on CDS spreads during the crisis period, while the VIX index had a linear relationship with the default premia albeit the impact was not highly significant. The study concludes that the financial crisis was an important event that affected the relationship of these variables with BRICS country default spreads and had read through to market participant’s behaviour at the time.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
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