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The effects of external shocks on economic growth in South Africa

  • Authors: Mzayidume, Lonwabo
  • Date: 2022-04
  • Subjects: Economic development , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Language: English
  • Type: Master's theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/58024 , vital:58499
  • Description: External shocks are defined as unexpected changes in an economic variable which can influence economies either positively or negatively. Examples of such shocks can include oil price and terms of trade shocks. Globalisation has increased the susceptibility of economies worldwide to economic shocks emanating from developed countries, due to the existing trade and financial links between various countries around the world. The objectives of this study are to investigate the effects of external shocks on economic growth in South Africa and to develop policies which could be used to prevent or soften the negative effects of external shocks in South Africa. Since the beginning of democracy in 1994, the South African economy has been opened to the world market. However, there have not been substantial gains in terms of economic growth. A possible explanation for this is that the dynamics of large economies influence the average demand, average supply, economic activities, and price changes in small open economies. South Africa’s dependence on foreign trade and attracting foreign savings to drive domestic investment increases the country’s vulnerability to the effects of external shocks. In this study, the South African economy is proxied by one key measure of economic performance, economic growth rate. The purpose of the study is to advance the understanding of the effects of external shocks on economic growth in South Africa. The study uses the structural VAR model. As South Africa is a relatively small open economy, the structural VAR model is theoretically consistent with countries of similar ilk. This study concludes that South Africa’s economic growth is significantly affected by commodity price index, U.S. GDP, and oil rents. In addition, this study concludes that South Africa is contemporaneously and positively affected by oil rents shocks and terms of trade shocks. Furthermore, it shows that economic growth in South Africa is contemporaneously and negatively affected by capital inflow shocks, nominal vi exchange rate shocks, and CPI shocks. Further SVAR estimates support the finding that capital inflows adversely affect South African economic growth. A possible reason for this outcome is that the number of domestic producers is reduced as a result of domestic producers being negatively affected by the capital inflow shocks. To combat the adverse effects of capital inflows, the study recommends that South Africa enforces more measures to protect domestic producers. The implementation of protectionist policies is one way in which this could be accomplished. These policies would promote domestic producers and ensure the production of domestic goods and services is increased. , Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Business and Economic science, 2022
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  • Date Issued: 2022-04

A behaviour of South Africa’s economy towards inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) from BRICs economies

  • Authors: Dingela, Siyasanga
  • Date: 2021-04
  • Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- Developing countries , South Africa -- Economic conditions , BRIC countries -- Foreign economic relations
  • Language: English
  • Type: Doctoral theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51141 , vital:43212
  • Description: This study investigated a behaviour of South Africa’s economy towards inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) from Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) economies, during the period 1997 to 2016. The BRICs bloc was coined in 2001 by then chairperson of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Jim O’Neil. According to Goldman Sach (2001), the BRICs group was collectively expected to overtake the major economic powers over the span of a few decades. Their growth is expected to shape a new economic order and replace the currently dominant advanced economies. South Africa joined the BRICs bloc in 2010 as the jeweler of the world and as a gateway to Africa. It joined the BRICs group at the time when economic growth was at a sluggish rate, and the savings and investment were at the lowest rate. The country had a high unemployment rate, high levels of poverty and income inequality. On the other hand, the BRICs economies had limited intra-BRICs flows amongst themselves. It is against this background that this study investigated the long run impact of BRICs FDI inflows on South Africa’s economic growth, and the causality relationship between South Africa’s economic growth and BRICs FDI inflows. This study contributes to the body of knowledge of economics in South Africa and the literature on foreign direct investment and economic growth in South Africa. The study employed two cointegration methods to investigate the behaviour of South Africa’s economy towards inflows of foreign direct investment from BRICs economies. These are fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS). For granger causality, the study employed Stacked and Dumistrescu Hurlin tests. All the models used time series annual data from 1997 to 2016. The Unit root test results confirmed that the variables were stationary at first difference using panel Im, Pesaran, Shin (IPS) and Levin, Lin, Chu (LLC). The research employs four regressions, first, Economic growth and foreign direct investment (i.e. private sector, banking sector and both sectors), human capital, physical capital, household consumption, government expenditure, exports, and arable land; Second, Employment and foreign direct investment, human capital, physical capital, household consumption, government expenditure, exports, and arable land; third, Economic complexity and foreign direct investment, human capital, physical capital, household consumption, government expenditure, exports, and arable land; finally, Unemployment and foreign direct investment, human capital, physical capital, household consumption, government expenditure, exports, and arable land. The cointegration results for private FDI and economic growth, employment, economic complexity, and unemployment. The results show only economic complexity has significant effect on foreign direct investment and other variables show insignificant results. However, this effect is smaller compared to other growth determinants which are included in the regressions. The cointegration results for bank FDI. These results show more similarities with private FDI results and few differences. However, this effect is smaller compared to other growth determinants included in the regressions. These growth determinants, however, show a positive effect of human capital and household consumption on economic growth which is expected. Other interesting results are exports being positively related with economic growth and unemployment but negative with employment and insignificant with economic complexity. Another one is government spending negatively influence economic growth, employment and positively influence unemployment. But insignificant for economic complexity. Total FDI results and other variables. These results are also similar to private and bank FDI results discussed above. Economic complexity shows significant effect with foreign direct investment, yet other variables are insignificant. . Further results show human capital positively related with economic growth, which is expected. However, physical capital and household consumption negatively affects growth. Another one exports show positive influence on economic growth but negatively related with employment. Yet, insignificant with economic complexity and unemployment. Other results government spending shows negative influence with employment but insignificant with economic growth, economic complexity and unemployment. The results for nonlinearity between the variables under review. The results that employment and economic complexity are nonlinear with foreign direct investment and no nonlinearity between unemployment, economic growth and foreign direct investment. For employment, low levels of foreign direct investment (LFDI_private) adversely affects employment but at higher levels (FDI_private_SQ) is insignificant. For economic complexity, low levels of foreign direct investment are insignificant for economic complexity but at higher levels there is a positive effect of squared foreign direct investment on economic complexity. Further results show that economic growth and employment are nonlinear with human capital, physical capital, household consumption and exports. Physical capital and household consumption adversely affect economic growth, yet positively affects employment. Human capital positively affects economic growth, employment, and unemployment. Exports positively affect economic growth, but negatively affect employment. Further results show nonlinearity between employment and government expenditure. Government expenditure adversely affects employment. Also, economic growth and unemployment show nonlinearity with arable land. Arable land adversely affects economic growth but positively affects unemployment. Nonlinear results for economic growth and economic complexity with foreign direct investment but no nonlinearity in other remaining variables. For economic growth, low levels of foreign direct investment there is a positive effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth, however, at higher levels foreign direct investment are insignificant. For economic complexity, low levels of foreign direct investment are insignificant, yet, higher levels of foreign direct investment there is a positive influence of foreign direct investment on economic complexity. Further results show economic growth and employment that are nonlinear with human capital, physical capital, and household consumption. Human capital positively affects both economic growth and employment. Physical capital and household consumption are adversely affecting economic growth, yet positively affects employment. Further results show nonlinearity between economic growth and government expenditure. Government expenditure adversely affects employment. More results, employment, and unemployment show nonlinearity results with exports. Exports adversely affect employment but positively affects unemployment. Results show economic growth and unemployment that are nonlinear with arable land. Arable land adversely affects economic growth, but positively affect unemployment. Nonlinear results for economic complexity only and other variables show no nonlinearity in the regressions. For economic complexity, low levels of foreign direct investment are insignificant, but at higher levels of foreign direct investment there is positive effect of foreign direct investment on economic complexity. More results show economic growth and employment that are nonlinear with human capital, physical capital, household consumption and exports. Human capital and exports positively affect economic growth, employment, and unemployment. Whereas, physical capital and household consumption adversely affects economic growth and unemployment, yet positively affects employment. Further results show nonlinearity between employment and government expenditure. Government spending adversely affects employment. Further results show nonlinearity between economic growth and unemployment with arable land. Arable land positively affects unemployment, yet adversely affects economic growth. The following section discusses granger causality results. This study also employed granger causality tests. The causality results between economic growth, employment, economic complexity, unemployment, and private foreign direct investment. The causality results show that there is granger causality between economic growth and economic complexity with private foreign direct investment. Whereas, between bank foreign direct investment and other variables there is no granger causality. However, between total foreign direct investment and economic growth and employment there is granger causality. There are a number of policy recommendations that can be drawn from the study. The study results in overall revealed that BRICs (private and bank) FDI inflows had a positive impact on South Africa’s economic growth between 1997 and 2016. The study results suggest that the policy makers should focus the attention on lobbying foreign direct investment from BRICs economies, since this study shows positive impact and relationship between South Africa’s economic growth and BRICs FDI inflows. The BRICs economies should focus on enhancing investment partnership, preventing protectionism, and promoting intra-BRICS flows. In addition, South Africa should eliminate barriers affecting business with BRICs countries. Policy makers should promote the building of new companies (for example Greenfield Investment) so that the economy of South Africa could grow and create employment. , Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
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  • Date Issued: 2021-04

Testing the applicability of the Twin deficits and the Ricardian equivalence hypotheses in South Africa

  • Authors: Makua, Khutso Baltimore
  • Date: 2021-04
  • Subjects: Budget deficits -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Economics
  • Language: English
  • Type: Master's theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51831 , vital:43376
  • Description: This study investigates the applicability of the twin deficit and Ricardian equivalence hypotheses in South Africa by exploring the relationship between budget deficits and current account deficits for the period 1990-2020 in South Africa. The reviewed theoretical and empirical literature has shown the results of this relationship to be mixed, depending on the region in review and the policy regime in some instances. The Johansen cointegration test was used because it has advantage over the Engle-Granger over the number of cointegrating relationships they both test. Compared to Engle-Granger, Johansen cointegration allows for more than one cointegrating relationship. The test show evidence that there is cointegration between current account deficits, budget deficits and other explanatory variables. The tests indicated the presence of cointegration which led to the estimation of VECM. Co-integration and vector error correction modelling techniques were applied to South African data between 1990 to 2020 period. The study at hand indicated that government budget deficits have a long run negative effect on current account deficits, but Granger causality failed to prove the direction of causality between the main variables, current account deficits and current account deficits. Therefore, the study concluded that the twin deficits hypothesis is not applicable in South Africa and revealed that South Africa is a Ricardian economy as Granger causality could not establish that budget deficits cause current account deficits. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
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  • Date Issued: 2021-04

Understanding the South African international investment position and the valuation effects: subtitle if needed. If no subtitle follow instructions in manual

  • Authors: Hlati, Sisamnkelo
  • Date: 2021-04
  • Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Economics
  • Language: English
  • Type: Master's theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/51534 , vital:43298
  • Description: This study examines the relationship between the South African Net International Investment Positions and the valuation effects over a period of 47 years from 1970 to 2017. To investigate the long run relationship between NIIP and the determinants thereof, this current study made use of the bounds test technique and the results indicate that a long run relationship exist. In which case, the autoregressive distributed lag model to empirically investigate the impact of the current account balance, capital account balance and the valuation effects on the South African NIIP was conducted and this current study finds out that there is a long run positive relationship between the current account balance and the South African NIIP. However, the study noted that the impact of the current account balance is volatile and this could be due to the net investment income payments (in a form of interest and dividend) made to foreign investors, which constitute a proportionately large share of the South African current account deficit. The capital account balance exhibits a positive long run impact on the South African NIIP in line with theory. The valuation effects on the other hand indicate a relatively stable impact on the South African NIIP, while in the long run have a positive impact on NIIP. The positive impact of the valuation effects could be due to gains being relatively larger than losses in the long run. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Economics, 2021
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  • Date Issued: 2021-04

An appraisal of the East London Industrial Development Zone’s role in local innovation, entrepreneurship, and industrial development

  • Authors: Masiwa, George Bonginkosi
  • Date: 2021-02
  • Subjects: Industrialization , Economic development , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Language: English
  • Type: Doctoral theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/21213 , vital:47406
  • Description: This study focuses on the East London Industrial Development Zone (ELIDZ) in South Africa. The ELIDZ strategy came as a response to the need for a robust catalyst for sustainable regional economic development, industrial diversification and to create meaningful employment opportunities in the country. It was supposed to provide customised solutions for various industries including automotive, agro-processing and aqua-culture. However, an Industrial Development Zone should promote innovati on and entrepreneurship to stimulate economic growth and global competitiveness. Economic stagnation, joblessness and inequality continue to be a reality for the previously marginalised groups after 16 years of the ELIDZ despite significant investments in the automotive sector, the growth of companies that supply Mercedes Benz with parts and the establishment and growth of innovative start-up companies at the ELIDZ Science and Technology Park (STP). Massive joblessness, poverty and economic stagnation had followed the collapse of the old industrial parks. The ELIDZ strategy of industrial development came as a response to the demise of the old parks and was meant to become the main vehicle for job creation, local innovation and global competitiveness. This study therefore investigated the extent to which innovation and entrepreneurship have fared in driving sustainable local economic development and how they have impacted jobs at the ELIDZ and within the East London community. The study was qualitative in nature and employed the non-probability sampling technique. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with key informants that included Industrialists, Business Executives that were tenants at the ELIDZ, the Buffalo City Municipal Metro and community members with knowledge of and association with the ELIDZ. This was augmented by desktop and observational data. It was found that innovation and entrepreneurship was still a fairly new phenomenon at the ELIDZ and their flagships had the vision but were not yet driving sustainable local economic development to a large extent. The model lacks adequate diversification as most of the innovation projects are in the renewable energy and information communication spaces. Very few have made it to mass production with downstream industry employment creation for plumbers, artisans and marketers involved in the supply, distribution, instalment and maintenance of the Hotspot and Thin-film solar panels. New industrialists like YEKANI Technologies and Manufacturing and KGI Holdings, already employ some people and have the vision to employ thousands more of young people. The main innovation and entrepreneurship projects of the ELIDZ have had some impact at the grassroots level even though it is still limited. Too few jobs have been created compared to the old industrial parks model. The ELIDZ is therefore playing an important (albeit limited) role as a local employment creator, even though it has not revitalised the Eastern Cape manufacturing landscape. Due to its highly technology driven and specialised skills nature, the ELIDZ model is benefiting the few and therefore has not yet been an effective instrument to resolve the disturbing levels of inequality, poverty and unemployment, that underlie racial, class and gender dynamics in East London. The study concluded that innovation and entrepreneurship projects at the ELIDZ were contributing towards driving sustainable local economic development to some degree. However, due to its narrow industrial focus and highly technical and specialised skills driven business model, it excludes most historically disadvantaged communities and the local academic institutions need to do more to produce the skills relevant to support local innovation and local industrial development in a time when economies rely more on intellectual capabilities rather than natural resources. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, 2021
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  • Date Issued: 2021-02

Agricultural entrepreneurship development as strategy for economic empowerment: The case of small-scale farmers in Eastern Cape Province of South Africa

  • Authors: Akinwale, Olusola Mokayode
  • Date: 2020-11
  • Subjects: Sustainable development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Language: English
  • Type: Doctoral theses , text
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/20241 , vital:45637
  • Description: This study emanated from the struggle for economic empowerment among small-scale farmers in South African. The study advocates for the establishment of a viable environment where agricultural entrepreneurship can thrive. While the South African Nation Development Plan (NDP) proposed to create one million jobs through agricultural sector by 2030, the majority of small-scale farmers in South Africa are struggling to grow beyond the level of subsistence farming, and the youths appear not to be interested in the farming. It is therefore become necessary to conduct this current study that is exploratory in nature; it explored several factors and barriers to agricultural entrepreneurship development, as well as factors that can contribute to the development of prosperous and sustainable agricultural entrepreneurship among small-scale farmers in South African. The study was conducted in two district municipalities of Eastern Cape Province of South Africa – OR Tambo and Chris Hani. Both quantitative and qualitative research methods were used to make findings. Findings from the study shows that economic empowerment can be achieved through agricultural entrepreneurship development by giving adequate attention to specific factors like individuals’ attitude, production skills, access to market and marketing skills, management skills. Empirically, basic components like personal interests, adequate training and background, efficient extension service, famers’ network and communication, specific goal-oriented, understanding market, farmers’ collaboration, and access to sufficient funding are few of the factors that will make the small-scale farmers grow to the level of commercial farming. The study concluded that prerequisite to developing a sustainable agricultural entrepreneurship climate among small-scale farmers in South African is the combination of basic components aforementioned. Suggestions were made for strong collaboration between government and private sectors to provide development assistance for small-scale farmers as they struggles to develop their small-scale farming to sustainable entrepreneurship level. , Thesis (DPhil) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce, 2020
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  • Date Issued: 2020-11

Tax revolts: an international perspective

  • Authors: Tinotenda, Tariro Chizanga
  • Date: 2020
  • Subjects: Taxation -- Public opinion , Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Income tax -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Fiscal policy -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MComm
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/166116 , vital:41330
  • Description: The main goal of this study is to investigate whether tax revolts currently taking place and apparently threatening to take place in South Africa follow patterns shown in past international tax revolts or follow a unique pattern of their own. Tax revolts or tax rebellions are not a new phenomenon; they can be traced back to the beginning of time. Renowned tax revolts of the past include the Magna Carta and the Peasants’ Revolt in England, the Boston Tea Party, the Whiskey Rebellion, the Zimbabwean poll tax revolt, the Bambatha rebellion, the Tigre Rebellion, Proposition 13 and Margaret Thatcher’s poll tax revolt. These tax revolts were usually caused by the high burden of taxation, excessive government expenditure, corruption of government officials, declining tax morale of taxpayers and taxpayers’ perceptions of unfairness. In South Africa, elements of tax revolts have been on the rise. There has been a tax revolt against the e-tolling system in Gauteng since 2013. Non-payment of municipal rates is another form of tax revolt that has been and is happening in South Africa. Trade unions have also threatened strikes and mass action against various tax changes, including the value-added tax increase. Taxpayers, through media reporting, have been witnessing an increase in the use of taxpayers’ money for non-governmental agendas or overstated budgets. An increasing number of South Africans have been emigrating financially from South Africa to avoid a high taxation burden. The study falls within a post-positivist paradigm and an interpretive methodology is applied in the present research. The methodology is based on the fact that the social reality of tax revolts is not singular or objective, instead it is influenced by human experiences and social contexts. The study finds that tax revolts are currently occurring and threatening to occur in South Africa. The patterns of South African tax revolts are to a great extent similar to the patterns of international tax revolts, indicating the universalism of tax revolts. The study also confirms that South African tax revolts are, to a certain extent, unique.
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  • Date Issued: 2020

An investigation into the introduction of a new wealth tax in South Africa

  • Authors: Arendse, Jacqueline A
  • Date: 2018
  • Subjects: Wealth tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Income tax -- South Africa , Fiscal policy -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Income distribution -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/61379 , vital:28020
  • Description: In a world of economic uncertainty and manifold social problems, South Africa has its own unique challenges of low economic growth, persistent budget deficits that produce increasing government debt and the highest level of economic inequality in the world. The history of injustice and economic marginalisation and the failure of the economy to provide inclusive growth drives an urgent need to address economic inequality through tax policy, placing ever more focus on wealth taxes as a possible solution. There is a hope is that taxing the wealthy may provide the opportunity to redistribute desperately-needed resources to those denied the opportunity to build wealth and who are trapped in the cycle of poverty. Yet, as appealing as a new wealth tax may seem, the introduction of such a tax carries with it a range of risks, not all of which are known. Of great concern is the possible effect on the economy, which, in its vulnerable state, cannot afford any loss of capital and investment. Very little research has been done on wealth tax in the South African context and there is a dearth of literature focusing on the views and perceptions of the wealthy individuals themselves. This qualitative study investigates the merits and disadvantages of a new wealth tax and seeks to identify any unintended consequences that could result from the implementation of a new wealth tax in South Africa, drawing from historical and international experience and primary data obtained from interviews with individuals likely to be affected by such a tax. Having explored the literature and international experiences with wealth tax and having probed the thinking of wealthy individuals who would be the payers of a wealth tax, the study finds that a new wealth tax may contribute towards the progressivity of the tax system, but it is doubtful whether such a tax would provide a sustainable revenue stream that would be sufficient to address economic inequality and there is a risk of causing harm to the economy. Recognising that the motivation for wealth taxes is often driven more by political argument and public perception than by rational quantitative analysis, the study also anticipates the introduction of a new wealth tax and suggests guidelines for the design of such a tax within the framework for evaluating a good tax system. This study informs the debate on wealth taxes in South Africa and contributes to the design of such a tax, should it be implemented.
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  • Date Issued: 2018

The impact of the cultural and creative industries on the economic growth and development of small cities and towns - guidelines for creating a regional cultural policy

  • Authors: Ndhlovu, Raymond
  • Date: 2018
  • Subjects: Cultural industries -- South Africa , Cultural industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Cultural policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa. Department of Arts and Culture , Standard Bank National Arts Festival
  • Language: English
  • Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/61524 , vital:28032
  • Description: The arts and cultural sector has come under even more financial strain than it previously was, as it has to compete with other sectors of the economy for the very limited public funding that is available. It is in this context that the economic impact, and the role, of the arts and cultural sector towards advancing economic growth and development, needs be examined. This thesis investigates the potential for the positive impact of the cultural and creative industries (CCIs) on growth and development of small cities and towns. Furthermore, it also provides guidelines for the development of regional cultural policy in small cities and towns. The CCIs have also been touted as a catalyst for economic growth and economic development, hence the global rise in their interest. For example, the CCIs have been used to redevelop and revive urban areas that have been rundown. CCIs, however, tend to develop in clusters, and additionally, they cluster around large cities. However, the lack of reliance of some CCIs on long supply chains or high-technology inputs may make them suitable candidates for investment in small cities and towns. Additionally, the link that small cities and towns have with rural and isolated areas makes them potential engines for driving growth, development, as well as employment creation for these areas, given their decline as a result of the transition from the traditional agricultural economy, to the knowledge economy. As CCIs have the propensity to drive government’s macroeconomic objectives such as efficiency, equity, economic growth and job creation, it is necessary to develop cultural policy that regards this. The tendency of CCIs to cluster and develop around large cities inevitably means that very little research into cultural policy directed towards regions without large cities and towns has been done. By the same token, very little research has also been conducted on how to craft cultural policy for such areas. In order then, for cultural policy for regions without large cities and towns to be developed, it is necessary to investigate, and provide, guidelines on, how to develop cultural policy for such regions. As a case study, the Sarah Baartman District Municipality (SBDM) in the Eastern Cape was chosen. The SBDM has no large cities and towns, but the District Municipality has identified the CCIs as a potential growth sector, and is in the process of developing a regional cultural policy. The area also includes Grahamstown, which not only hosts the National Arts Festival, which is the largest arts event of its type in Africa, but is also piloting the “Creative City” project in South Africa. An audit and mapping study was conducted on the CCIs in the SBDM; this was based on a national mapping study commissioned by the Department of Arts and Culture. Further internet searches, as well as consultations with the provincial and regional Department of Arts of Culture, coupled with snowball sampling, also aided in the identification of CCIs, and consequently, the “creative hotspots” within the SBDM. Two random samples of stakeholders were chosen; the CCI owners and practitioners, as well as key stakeholders such as government officials, and interviews conducted with both groups, in order to get a first-hand perspective on the operations, activities, challenges, and opportunities that are faced by the CCIs. The study found that there were at least 441 CCIs in the SBDM, with two local municipalities (Dr. Beyers Naude and Makana) hosting the largest share of these (145 and 113 CCIs in each local municipality respectively), which indicates some support for the ‘clustering’ theory. It was also found that the local municipalities that had the largest number of CCIs also experienced better socio-economic welfare. Furthermore, based on the UNESCO Framework for Cultural Statistics (FCS) domains, the Visual Arts and Crafts; Information, Books and Press; and, Cultural Heritage domains were the largest domains represented in the SBDM. It was concluded that cultural policy that is developed, ought to take advantage of, and build on, these existing clusters, as well as the domains that are most prevalent in the region. To demonstrate the impact of cultural festivals on growth and development, a socio-economic impact study was undertaken at the 2016 National Arts Festival (NAF) in Grahamstown. Face to interviews, as well as self-completion questionnaires were used, with respondents at different venues, attending a variety of shows, and across a range of demographics, being interviewed, in order to get a representative sample of Festival attendees. It was found that the economic impact of the 2016 NAF on the city of Grahamstown was R94.4 million. Over and above the economic value of the NAF, it was also found that there were nonmarket benefits (social and intrinsic values) of the NAF, that included audience development, education of the arts and culture, social cohesion, and community development. The inability to directly track and measure social and intrinsic values proved to be a challenge. The study concluded that in order for successful cultural policy to be developed in regions without large cities and towns, it is first necessary to carry out a study to identify what resources are present, and where they are. Locating resources enables cluster identification - as clusters encourage comparative and competitive advantage, it is worthwhile to invest in areas where there are clusters. Therefore, in the allocation of scarce public funds, cultural policy needs to guide investment in to areas where established clusters indicate existing comparative advantage. In terms of equity and transformation, it is also necessary to evaluate labour markets and ownership patterns when developing cultural policy. Beyond the analysis of physical and human resources, the study also found that a crucial step towards developing successful cultural policy is identification of opportunities and challenges faced by the practitioners themselves; the policy ought to capitalise on the opportunities, whilst attempting to correct the challenges faced. Also of importance is aligning the proposed policy and its objectives with regional, provincial and national aims and objectives. Finally, it is important to include a monitoring and evaluation tool that will evaluate the performance of the policy against its stated aims and objectives.
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  • Date Issued: 2018

The impact of real exchange rate on exports in South Africa

  • Authors: Mbewu, Asanda
  • Date: 2017
  • Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa Exports -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/19015 , vital:28765
  • Description: The purpose of this study is to establish the impact of real exchange rate on exports in South Africa. In conducting the empirical test, the Vector Error Correction Model and annual time series data between 1973 and 2014 has been utilised. In the model, exports are the dependent variable and the real effective exchange rates, gross domestic product, mining, agricultural, foreign direct investments, and merchandise export prices are explanatory variables. A significant inverse relationship between real effective exchange rates and exports was confirmed in line with economic theory. Except for the Gross Domestic Product which exhibited a positive relationship, all other explanatory variables displayed an inverse relationship with exports. All other variables exhibited a significant impact except for Foreign Direct Investments. Based on the findings of this study, firm and practical policy recommendations are made including a moderated adjustment of monetary and fiscal policy to ensure competitiveness on the supply side.
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  • Date Issued: 2017

Forecasting volatility on the rand foreign exchange market

  • Authors: Klaas, Sinoxolo
  • Date: 2015
  • Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange administration , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/7892 , vital:24319
  • Description: Exchange rates are one of the most essential determinants of a country's economic performance in terms of level of trade. Since the exchange rate is one of the best indicators of competitiveness, this study sought to examine the behaviour of the rand against other emerging countries in the South African exchange market. The study explored the trends and estimated the forecasting accuracy of six currency markets using ARCH-family and Random walk models over the period 1994 to 2013.The six currency markets examined were the Rand/Dollar, Rand/Pound, Rand/Euro, Rand/Yen and Rand/Pula. The Rand exchange rates did exhibit the characteristics of volatility clustering and asymmetric effects suggesting volatility of the Rand. Exchange rates tend to rise when there is more bad news in the financial market than good news and positive shocks imply a higher next period conditional variance than negative shocks of the same sign.
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  • Date Issued: 2015

The developmental state, social policy and social compacts: a comparative policy analysis of the South African case

  • Authors: Gwaindepi, Abel
  • Date: 2014
  • Subjects: Economic development -- Political aspects -- South Africa , Income distribution -- South Africa , Democracy -- South Africa , Industrial policy -- Developing countries , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Social conditions
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
  • Identifier: vital:1101 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013278
  • Description: The history of economic thought is ‘flooded’ with neo-classical accounts despite the fact that neoclassical economics did not occupy history alone. This has caused the discourses on ‘lost alternatives’ to be relegated as the deterministic ‘straight line’ neo-classical historical discourses are elevated. Globally hegemonic neo-classical discourse aided this phenomenon as it served to subordinate any counterhegemonic local discursive processes towards alternatives. This study is premised on the theme of non-neoclassical ‘lost alternatives’ using the post-apartheid South Africa as a case study. Emerging from the apartheid regime, the impetus towards non-neoclassical redistributive policies was strong in South Africa but this did not gain traction as the ANC’s ‘growth through redistribution’ was replaced by globally hegemonic discourse which favoured ‘redistribution through growth’. This thesis postulates the idea of two waves of ‘internal’ discursive formations; capturing the transition to democracy up to 1996 as the first wave and the period from 2005 to about 2009 as the second wave. The developmental state paradigm (DSP) emerged as the central heterodox paradigm with ideas such as industrial policy, welfare, and social dialogue/compacts being main elements. The DSP was expressly chosen in the early 1990s, the first period of strong internal discursive formation, but faded as neo-classical policies, epitomised through GEAR, dominated the policy space. The DSP discourse gained vitality in the second wave of internal discursive formation (2005-2009) and it was associated with the subsequent Zuma’s administration. The study illustrates that the DSP has failed to be fully developed into a practical framework but remained only at rhetorical level with the phrase ‘developmental state’ inserted into government policy documents and documents of ANC as a ruling party. The thesis further illustrates that the DSP fared well ideologically because of its inclination to the ideology of ‘developmentalism’ tended to trump any socialist inclined policies such as a generous welfare regime. The thesis rebuts the notion of the DSP in South Africa which has only been amorphously developed with the phrase ‘developmental state’ becoming a mere buzzword. The thesis argues that the DSP in the 21st century is much more complex and the growing ‘tertiarisation’ of the economy makes the Social Democratic Paradigm SDP’s capability centric approach much more relevant for South Africa. The study goes further to argue that a (SDP) is much more suitable alternative for addressing South African colonial/apartheid legacies and consolidation of democracy.
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  • Date Issued: 2014

The functioning of the interbank market and its significance in the transmission of monetary policy

  • Authors: De Angelis, Catherine
  • Date: 2013-06-11
  • Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
  • Identifier: vital:1075 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008054 , South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Description: Monetary policy in South African is the primary means by which the authorities can influence activity in the overall economy. The South African Reserve Bank accommodates banks through repo transactions for which they charge the repo rate. The most important market in the transmission of the repo rate to the rest of the economy is the interbank market. As such, a detailed discussion of this market is given. In September 200 I the monetary authorities made certain adjustments to the repo system of accommodation, which included changing the repo rate from a floating rate to a fixed rate that would be administratively determined by the MPC. This was done to address certain weaknesses in the floating rate system. This thesis examines and compares the period before and after the adjustments to the repo system, with the aim of determining whether or not the monetary authorities achieved the goals intended from making this change. The repo rate, prime interbank rate, 3-month NCO rate and the prime lending rate are analysed using the Engle-Granger two variable approach and an ECM model to test for causality. It was found that the monetary authorities did not achieve their intended goals as the relationship between the repo rate and the interbank rate was more significant in the first period. Furthermore, the direction of causality the authorities hoped to achieve by implementing the changes were in fact already in place. As such the adjustments to the system changed the transmission mechanism from the one desired by the authorities to one that was not intended. The conclusions reached by this study show that, in terms of the objectives of the monetary authorities, the previous repo system functioned better. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
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Assessing financial viability of selected urban and rural municipalities in the Eastern Cape

  • Authors: Maclean, Sindisile
  • Date: 2013
  • Subjects: Finance, Public -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Municipal government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Sustainable development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Human services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD (in Public Administration)
  • Identifier: vital:11661 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007093 , Finance, Public -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Municipal government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Sustainable development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Human services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Description: The purpose of the research is to assess the financial viability of selected urban and rural municipalities in the Eastern Cape. Municipalities that are not financially viable and sustainable will always struggle to deliver basic services to communities. Without sound financial management systems, municipalities will be forced to discontinue their operations. Municipalities, particularly small and rural ones, are not self-sufficient and often rely on grants and transfers to satisfy their immediate short-term goal of providing basic services to satisfy the needs of their communities. Therefore, finance is regarded as an overriding and decisive factor for determining the viability of municipalities. The study seeks to investigate the financial viability of selected urban and rural municipalities in the Eastern Cape. Its key research questions are: Are municipalities able to provide sufficient funds to provide a range of services at an acceptable service level? To what extent do municipalities rely on external funding? Do municipalities have revenue collection capacity and revenue policies? The study asserts that most municipalities lack the required financial resources. They depend mainly on transfers from Provincial Government and equitable share and conditional grants from National Government. Section 152 (1) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, Act 8 of 1996, states, amongst other things, that Local Government should ensure the provision of services to communities in a sustainable manner. The constitution further states that a municipality must strive, within its financial and administrative capacity, to achieve its objectives. The Municipal Finance Management Act, Act 56 of 2003, creates a framework for municipalities to borrow money and determine the conditions for short- and long-term borrowing. The Act assigns clear roles and responsibilities to the various role players involved in local government financial management. According to the Act, an annual budget for a municipality may only be funded from realistically anticipated revenues to be collected. As revenue projections in the budget must be realistic, the Municipal Property Rates Act, Act 6 of 2004, facilitates the collection of revenue in municipalities and establishes a uniform property rating system across South Africa. Property tax is the biggest element of local government tax revenue and is central to municipal finance. The Municipal Systems Act, Act 32 of 2000, amongst its objectives, provides for the manner in which municipal powers and functions are exercised as well as establishes a simple framework for the core processes of planning, performance management and resource mobilisation. The Act also provides a framework for public administration and human resource development. Finally, it also empowers the poor and ensures that municipalities put in place service tariffs and credit control policies that take their needs into account. The research contends that, whilst there is legislation and structures to assist and direct municipalities, it has been established that municipalities do not properly collect rates and taxes due to them to augment their revenue. The study has shown nevertheless that metropolitan municipalities have the capacity to collect revenue for municipal services. This is confirmed by their collection rate which ranges between 94 % and 97 %. There is also the culture of non-payment by communities for services rendered by the municipalities. Rural municipalities are exempted from property tax, while other rural municipalities who have an urban component, have to collect. There is also the question of unemployment and poverty. Consequently, municipalities are not self-sufficient and rely on grants and equitable share to survive. As a result of this lack of self-sufficiency, it is difficult to implement service delivery and also difficult to attract skilled personnel. The study has investigated why some municipalities fail to collect revenue and depend on national grants. The study employed both qualitative and quantitative methods. The findings of the quantitative paradigm have been presented in the form of graphs and charts. The major findings include: All municipalities have limited borrowing capacity; have not exceeded their budgets in terms of their spending; small municipalities have households as their main contributor of revenue collected; metropolitan municipalities get the big slice of their revenue from business; small and rural municipalities rely on grants and transfers and are therefore not financially viable; metropolitan municipalities are, to a great extent, financially viable but lack skills and capacity to utilize their resources for effective service delivery; and all municipalities under-spend their budgets. The study, after elaborating on the findings, makes recommendations on how municipalities should become financially viable.
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  • Date Issued: 2013

Central Bank policy and the exchange rate under an inflation targeting regime: a case dtudy of South Africa

  • Authors: Gonzo, Prosper
  • Date: 2013
  • Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- Government policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Banking industry -- Finance -- South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
  • Identifier: vital:11476 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1015043 , Foreign exchange rates -- Government policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Banking industry -- Finance -- South Africa
  • Description: This work examined the optimality of the inclusion of the exchange rate in the reaction function of the Central Bank in an inflation targeting framework. The study attempts to answer the question whether the exchange rate should have an independent role in an open economy Taylor-type rule. To this end, a Taylor-type rule is incorporating the exchange rate is estimated by the cointegration and vector error correction modeling (VECM) using quarterly data for the period of 1995 to 2009. The empirical studies point out the importance of the exchange rates in explaining and forecasting the behaviour of the South African Reserve Bank monetary policy control variable.
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  • Date Issued: 2013

Foreign direct investment and socio-economic development : the South African example

  • Authors: Mukosera, Precious Sipho
  • Date: 2013
  • Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- Government policy -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
  • Identifier: vital:9142 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018760
  • Description: It is widely accepted by governments of many developing countries that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is crucial to the socio-economic development of their nations and have developed various policies in an effort to attract FDI, as a result. FDI is a crucial source of technology, capital and skills for developing countries for economic growth that may ultimately lead to poverty reduction, employment creation and modernisation. However, results from many studies have been inconclusive and have failed to find a direct link between the increase of FDI and the associated socio-economic development of recipient nations. South Africa is no exception to this debate as it seeks to turn its back on decades long apartheid, which has entrenched poverty in the majority of its population and exacerbated social tensions. The main socio-economic challenges that South Africa faces include high unemployment, skills shortages, poverty and high inequality, and the 2008/2009 global financial and economic crisis has exacerbated the crisis. Despite these challenges South Africa‘s macro-economic strategies have had a good reputation since 2000. The monetary policy has turned out to be more transparent and predictable, and a sound fiscal policy has sustained its framework. The study analyses the role that FDI plays in the socio-economic development of South Africa since 1995 by focusing on selected case studies: ABSA Bank, General Motors South Africa (GMSA) and the Mining Sector of South Africa. The research concludes that although ABSA Bank has implemented several corporate social responsibility (CSR), and various employee development programmes, there is hardly any evidence to suggest that Barclays Bank‘s takeover of ABSA Bank has positively impacted on these programmes. General Motors South Africa (GMSA), which came into South Africa many decades ago through a Greenfield Investment, has played a positive role in the economy of the Eastern Cape Province as well as that of South Africa, having created jobs directly and indirectly. The company has also designed and implemented various educational, housing as well as health and awareness programmes for its employees and for the communities. Mining companies that operate in South Africa formed partnerships in the communities in which they operate in an effort to improve the lives of people. While these various projects have been a source of employment, they have had a limited impact on the core causes of social problems surrounding the mines. Many of these root causes relate to core business practices of the mining companies, especially employee recruitment, wages and housing. These root causes where witnessed in the Lonmin tragedy and in other strikes that spread throughout the sector in 2012. The study concludes that although FDI does play a role in the socio-economic development of South Africa, especially Greenfield investment, the same argument could not be made on Mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Finally, the South African government needs to play a proactive role in ensuring that foreign companies that invest in the country need to be well aware of the socio-economic needs of South Africa, and be willing to play a positive role in that regard.
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  • Date Issued: 2013

Impact of human dimensions on smallholder farming in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa

  • Authors: Kibirige, Douglas
  • Date: 2013
  • Subjects: Farms, Small -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Rural development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Community development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Social conditions , South Africa -- Economic conditions , DEA approach , Stochastic production frontier , Production efficiency , Human dimensions , Irrigation
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD (Agricultural Economics)
  • Identifier: vital:11201 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007532 , Farms, Small -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Rural development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Community development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , South Africa -- Social conditions , South Africa -- Economic conditions , DEA approach , Stochastic production frontier , Production efficiency , Human dimensions , Irrigation
  • Description: Considering the backward and forward linkages, the agro-industrial sector contributes about 12 percent of South Africa‘s GDP, and employs approximately 8.5 million people. In the Eastern Cape Province, the sector contributes about 1.9 percent of the Provincial GDP, and over 3 million people derive their livelihoods from subsistence smallholder farming. Despite its importance, agricultural productivity has stagnated for several years across the Eastern Cape rural communities. There have been several attempts by the government to improve the agricultural productivity on smallholder farms since the end of apartheid, especially through the establishment of small-scale irrigation schemes, subsidization of farm inputs, and provision of credit facilities and enacting a number of land reform policies. In spite of the government support, most rural communities like Qamata and Tyefu are still faced with high levels of poverty affecting 76 percent and 91 percent of the population, respectively. This research evaluated the current smallholders‘ production efficiency, and the link between smallholder farmers‘ human dimensions (entrepreneurial spirit and positive psychological capital, goals and social capital, and other efficiency related variables) with production efficiency and household commercialisation index/level. The study used participatory approaches for site selection, sample selection and data collection. The analysis was based on both information from informal interviews and formal primary data collection. The Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Production Frontier techniques were used to determine the relative efficiencies of individual farmers and to identify the major factors that influence the efficiency of production. Overall, 158 farmers were interviewed both at Qamata and Tyefu irrigation schemes. Descriptive statistics of this study indicated that most of the farmers were men with an average age of 61 years, and mean household size of 4 persons with the household head having at least obtained some primary school education. Farming is the major source of livelihood for smallholders with an average income of R4527.49 per crop season. Smallholders use improved seeds, fertilizers and tractor for ploughing with less use of pesticides and herbicides. Although smallholder irrigators generate more gross margins from maize and cabbage enterprises, generally both categories of farmers exhibited a low average household commercialization index for maize and cabbage at 0.41 and 0.22, respectively. Both Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Production Frontier results indicate that farmers are about 98 percent technically efficient in maize and cabbage enterprises, respectively. However, farmers were allocatively inefficient as they were under-utilizing seed and pesticides while over-utilizing inorganic fertilizers. Factors that are positively associated with technical efficiency in maize production included household size, farming experience, off-farm income, use of agro-chemical; gross margins and commercialisation level of maize output. Determinants of technical efficiency in cabbage enterprise included farming experience, amount of land owned, use of agro-chemicals, group membership and gross margins accrued to cabbage sales. Farmers‘ human dimensions that could be more positively and significantly associated with production, efficiency and household commercialisation level included risk taking (hope), innovativeness (confidence) and optimism for entrepreneurial/positive psychological capital. Farmers‘ goals included self-esteem and independence, and only external social capital which were identified to be more positively and significantly associated with farmers‘ production efficiency and commercialization level. The transition from homestead subsistence to commercial oriented small-scale irrigation farming is inevitable since smallholder irrigators earn more incomes from maize and cabbage and are relatively food secure. However, the key policy options that must be considered to address inefficiencies and improved commercialization level to aid the transition include: agricultural policies geared toward attracting youth in farming, improved quality of extension services, speeding up the land reform process, and formation of cooperatives and participatory policy formulation that takes full cognizance of the farmers‘ human dimensions. Since farmers‘ human dimensions as defined in the literature and this study are not things that are amenable to direct policy intervention, they can only be modified indirectly through policy actions that affect their determinants. This means that a number of the demographic and socio-economic characteristics such as age, sex and education level of household head, farming experience, size of land owned, crop incomes, source of water for irrigation and location of the irrigation scheme that govern the way people perceive reality and respond to them must be the focus of concerted policy actions over the medium to long term.
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  • Date Issued: 2013

The impact of stock market development on economic growth: evidence from South Africa

  • Authors: Vacu, Nomfundo Portia
  • Date: 2013
  • Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Stocks -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Stock market development , Economic growth , South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
  • Identifier: vital:11655 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1006983 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Stocks -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Stock market development , Economic growth , South Africa
  • Description: The main objective of this study is to examine the long run relationship between stock market development and economic growth in the case of South Africa. The study used quarterly data covering the period from 1990Q1 to 2010Q4. To empirically test the link between the two variables, the study used the Johnson’s cointegration approach and Granger causality so as to test the direction of the relationship. The Vector Error Correction Model was also employed to capture both short run and long run dynamics. Generally, the results reveal that a long run relationship exists between the two variables and the causality flows from economic growth to stock market development. Also, the extent to which of stock market development impacts on growth is statistically weak.
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  • Date Issued: 2013

An empirical analysis of the Austrian business cycle theory with respect to South Africa

  • Authors: Nyika, Farai
  • Date: 2012
  • Subjects: Business cycles , Business cycles -- Austria -- Econometric models , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
  • Identifier: vital:9031 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020867
  • Description: In 2008, the global economy went into recession. Millions of jobs were lost, confidence in the financial markets fell and billions of dollars were lost by investors. Prior to the onset of the recession, the major economies of the world (USA, and Western Europe) had experienced a period of economic boom and expansion. Austrian Business Cycle Theory proposes that the roots of the current financial crisis and recessions in general, are found the actions of central banks through credit expansion and manipulation of interest rates. Central banks manipulate interest rates causing them to fall below the natural level, leading to credit expansion and malinvestments. Austrian Business Cycle Theory is based in capital theory. Capital theory incorporates the elements of time and money and allows the setting of a microeconomic foundation. The theory recognises that investment is not an aggregate (as do Keynesians and Monetarists). Opposition to empirical testing by Austrian economists has meant that few statistical analyses of Austrian Business Cycle Theory have been carried out. The apprehension toward empirical testing of Austrian Business Cycle Theory stems from some Austrian economists who argue that human behaviour cannot be captured in statistical terms. Recently, some Austrian economists have begun to do empirical research Austrian Business Cycle Theory and the thesis adds to that growing field. The thesis tests empirically for ABCT in South Africa by using Vector Error Correction Model and Granger causality techniques and the results are as follows: The Vector Error Correction Model shows that any disequilibrium adjustment in the structural equations influences correction mostly through changes in Manufacturing. The disequilibrium adjustment process for Investment is also found to have statistical significance. The results propose that Investment in South Africa is not inert. The Granger causality tests show that credit expansion causes interest rates to be artificially lowered leading to mal-investments. The main policy recommendation is that business cycles can be prevented by not manipulating interest rates and by not increasing credit availability.
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  • Date Issued: 2012

Exchange rates and economic growth in emerging economies: the case of South Africa

  • Authors: Sibanda, Bornapart
  • Date: 2012
  • Subjects: Economic development , Currency convertibility -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange administration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Language: English
  • Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
  • Identifier: vital:11464 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007045 , Economic development , Currency convertibility -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange administration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
  • Description: This study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility and misalignment on economic growth in South Africa. It applies the Johansen co integration test and the vector error correction model on quarterly data for the period 1990:01-2010:04. Exchange rate volatility is measured as the standard deviation of both the nominal and nominal effective exchange rate. The study constructs three measures of exchange rate misalignment, with two of the measures constructed using the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price index based Purchasing Power Parity. The third measure was based on the difference between the nominal and effective exchange rate. Contrary to pre-dominant findings in the exchange rate literature, the study finds a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth and attributes it to composition of the country’s exports that are largely made up of commodities that act as essential inputs in many production processes. As a result, the variability of prices caused by exchange rate volatility is not expected to deter demand for these commodities. A negative and significant relationship between exchange rate misalignment and economic growth was found. The findings of the study show that it is important for monetary authorities to ensure that the exchange rate is always at an appropriate level in order to avoid the negative implications of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth.
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  • Date Issued: 2012
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