National debt and sovereign credit ratings
- Authors: Orsmond, Daniel
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Debts, Public -- South Africa , Credit ratings -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic history , Macroeconomics , Moody's Investors Service , Standard and Poor's Ratings Services , Fitch Ratings (Firm)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115160 , vital:34083
- Description: In recent years South Africa’s foreign and local denominated debt has been downgraded by the three major global credit agencies, Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch. The foreign debt has been downgraded to speculative grade or ‘junk’ status by all three agencies. Local debt has been downgraded to ‘junk’ by S& P and Fitch, but Moody’s currently maintains local debt at the lowest level of investment grade. Many economists believe that South Africa’s rapidly rising debt levels are the major contributor to the decisions to downgrade South Africa’s debt. Yet many countries with higher levels of debt continue to be rated investment grade. Clearly, factors other than the actual level of debt are important in determining the credit rating agencies’ rating decisions. The literature suggests several variables are important in determining a country’s sovereign credit rating. These variables include not just the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product, but also a country’s real growth rate, inflation, gross domestic product per capita, external balance to gross domestic product, default history and the level of economic development. In examining the proposition that it is not a country’s debt level per se that matters, but rather the dynamics surrounding that debt, this research also includes three additional variables that are not usually mentioned in the literature. These, based on van der Merwe (1993), are the real GDP growth rate less the real interest rate, the ratio of the fiscal balance to GDP, and the ratio of government interest payments to government expenditure. The purpose of this addition is to examine whether rather than a country’s debt level (debt to GDP variable), it is the sustainability of a country’s ability to service debt, as indicated by the three additional ‘debt dynamic’ variables, that is most important when determining sovereign credit ratings. Panel data analysis for a sample of 12 countries over the period 1996Q1 to 2017Q4 indicates that of the broad macroeconomic variables mentioned in the literature, government debt to GDP, the real growth rate, inflation (cpi), and default history are all statistically significant, with the coefficients having the correct signs in all specification of the model, with the exception of the real growth rate in Models 2 and 3. With regards to the debt dynamic variables, the real growth rate less the real interest rate, as well as the interest payments to government expenditure variables are found to be significant determinants of sovereign credit ratings. Thus, the findings of the research suggest that the level of debt alone is an inadequate determinant of sovereign credit ratings. The dynamics of debt along with other macroeconomic variables are also important determinants of a country’s credit rating. Concerning policy recommendations, it is evident that debt sustainability is important for sovereign credit ratings. Evidence of the direct importance of economic growth in determining credit ratings is mixed, but growth is a key driver of debt dynamics variables and therefore of ratings. This suggests that policy should focus on stimulating growth to reduce the gap between real growth and real interest rates as well as increasing the denominator of the debt to GDP ratio and increase the size of the tax base, which would improve government’s ability to service the interest payments on its debt.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Orsmond, Daniel
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Debts, Public -- South Africa , Credit ratings -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic history , Macroeconomics , Moody's Investors Service , Standard and Poor's Ratings Services , Fitch Ratings (Firm)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115160 , vital:34083
- Description: In recent years South Africa’s foreign and local denominated debt has been downgraded by the three major global credit agencies, Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch. The foreign debt has been downgraded to speculative grade or ‘junk’ status by all three agencies. Local debt has been downgraded to ‘junk’ by S& P and Fitch, but Moody’s currently maintains local debt at the lowest level of investment grade. Many economists believe that South Africa’s rapidly rising debt levels are the major contributor to the decisions to downgrade South Africa’s debt. Yet many countries with higher levels of debt continue to be rated investment grade. Clearly, factors other than the actual level of debt are important in determining the credit rating agencies’ rating decisions. The literature suggests several variables are important in determining a country’s sovereign credit rating. These variables include not just the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product, but also a country’s real growth rate, inflation, gross domestic product per capita, external balance to gross domestic product, default history and the level of economic development. In examining the proposition that it is not a country’s debt level per se that matters, but rather the dynamics surrounding that debt, this research also includes three additional variables that are not usually mentioned in the literature. These, based on van der Merwe (1993), are the real GDP growth rate less the real interest rate, the ratio of the fiscal balance to GDP, and the ratio of government interest payments to government expenditure. The purpose of this addition is to examine whether rather than a country’s debt level (debt to GDP variable), it is the sustainability of a country’s ability to service debt, as indicated by the three additional ‘debt dynamic’ variables, that is most important when determining sovereign credit ratings. Panel data analysis for a sample of 12 countries over the period 1996Q1 to 2017Q4 indicates that of the broad macroeconomic variables mentioned in the literature, government debt to GDP, the real growth rate, inflation (cpi), and default history are all statistically significant, with the coefficients having the correct signs in all specification of the model, with the exception of the real growth rate in Models 2 and 3. With regards to the debt dynamic variables, the real growth rate less the real interest rate, as well as the interest payments to government expenditure variables are found to be significant determinants of sovereign credit ratings. Thus, the findings of the research suggest that the level of debt alone is an inadequate determinant of sovereign credit ratings. The dynamics of debt along with other macroeconomic variables are also important determinants of a country’s credit rating. Concerning policy recommendations, it is evident that debt sustainability is important for sovereign credit ratings. Evidence of the direct importance of economic growth in determining credit ratings is mixed, but growth is a key driver of debt dynamics variables and therefore of ratings. This suggests that policy should focus on stimulating growth to reduce the gap between real growth and real interest rates as well as increasing the denominator of the debt to GDP ratio and increase the size of the tax base, which would improve government’s ability to service the interest payments on its debt.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Perceptions of corporate social responsibility initiatives in the banking industry
- Authors: Mjodo, Lunga
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Corporate social responsibility
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44571 , vital:38134
- Description: The South African banking industry is well developed and highly competitive. Banks offer homogenous products and services and are vulnerable to negative reputations. Banks can use corporate social responsibility (CSR) to respond to stakeholder needs and demands, achieve a competitive advantage, gain a positive reputation, achieve positive word of mouth referrals, and increase profitability. On the other hand, banks which neglect CSR, are faced with the threat of clients switching their buying behaviour to banks that profoundly invest in CSR. Therefore, CSR is a business obligation. Carroll (1991) conducted a landmark study and identified four elements of CSR; namely economic responsibilities, legal responsibilities, ethical responsibilities, and philanthropic responsibilities, ranging from the most important to the least important element. Currently, a plethora of studies have been conducted which utilise Carroll’s pyramid of CSR and have found that in different countries and different industries, the pyramid takes a different hierarchical order, while other studies identify the limitation of Carroll’s pyramid as being created from a developed country’s perspective. Therefore, it is not clear which CSR elements are likely to build positive customer responses more than others. The primary objective of this study is to ascertain whether the various elements of CSR influence bank clients’ perceptions of their respective banks. If affirmative, what is the hierarchical order of preference from the most important to the least important CSR element? To achieve this objective, a positivist research paradigm is adopted for the study, utilising a quantitative research design. The empirical results revealed that the various elements of CSR influence bank clients’ perceptions of their respective banks. Bank clients ranked the four elements of CSR from the most important to the least important in the following order: the economic responsibilities, the philanthropic responsibilities, the ethical responsibilities, and the legal responsibilities respectively. Likewise, this confirms the assertion by other researchers who argue that Carroll’s pyramid takes a different hierarchical order in different countries, and in different industries within the borders of a country. The results of the study can assist banks in South Africa to understand bank clients’ experiences, interests, motives, attitudes, and expectations of CSR. Consequently, this can effectively and efficiently help the banks in planning and developing their CSR interventions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Mjodo, Lunga
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Corporate social responsibility
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44571 , vital:38134
- Description: The South African banking industry is well developed and highly competitive. Banks offer homogenous products and services and are vulnerable to negative reputations. Banks can use corporate social responsibility (CSR) to respond to stakeholder needs and demands, achieve a competitive advantage, gain a positive reputation, achieve positive word of mouth referrals, and increase profitability. On the other hand, banks which neglect CSR, are faced with the threat of clients switching their buying behaviour to banks that profoundly invest in CSR. Therefore, CSR is a business obligation. Carroll (1991) conducted a landmark study and identified four elements of CSR; namely economic responsibilities, legal responsibilities, ethical responsibilities, and philanthropic responsibilities, ranging from the most important to the least important element. Currently, a plethora of studies have been conducted which utilise Carroll’s pyramid of CSR and have found that in different countries and different industries, the pyramid takes a different hierarchical order, while other studies identify the limitation of Carroll’s pyramid as being created from a developed country’s perspective. Therefore, it is not clear which CSR elements are likely to build positive customer responses more than others. The primary objective of this study is to ascertain whether the various elements of CSR influence bank clients’ perceptions of their respective banks. If affirmative, what is the hierarchical order of preference from the most important to the least important CSR element? To achieve this objective, a positivist research paradigm is adopted for the study, utilising a quantitative research design. The empirical results revealed that the various elements of CSR influence bank clients’ perceptions of their respective banks. Bank clients ranked the four elements of CSR from the most important to the least important in the following order: the economic responsibilities, the philanthropic responsibilities, the ethical responsibilities, and the legal responsibilities respectively. Likewise, this confirms the assertion by other researchers who argue that Carroll’s pyramid takes a different hierarchical order in different countries, and in different industries within the borders of a country. The results of the study can assist banks in South Africa to understand bank clients’ experiences, interests, motives, attitudes, and expectations of CSR. Consequently, this can effectively and efficiently help the banks in planning and developing their CSR interventions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Personal branding through social networking
- Authors: Wait, John-Pierre
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Branding (Marketing) -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/42440 , vital:36660
- Description: This study explores people’s insights of personal branding by means of social networking. The continuously increasing competitive marketplace is creating a situation where people find it difficult to stand out from their peers. Personal branding affords the opportunity for people to be noticeable in competitive environments. This study used a qualitative research method employing two phases. The semi-structured personal interviews using a semi-structured interview schedule was conducted in the first phase, while the content analysis using criterion schedules analysing participants’ Facebook and LinkedIn social networks was done in phase two. The results of phase one of the study revealed that the majority of participants did not know what a personal brand was, but they believed they possessed a personal brand. Phase two of the study revealed that only a few participants had a coherently perceived personal brand and presented personal brands on both Facebook and LinkedIn. Phase two of the study also revealed that the majority of participants more prominently presented the skills necessary for the future work environment on Facebook rather than LinkedIn. In conclusion, the findings showed that most participants did not actively manage their personal brands across multiple social networking sites. They also did not effectively present the necessary skills for the future work environment on their social networking profiles.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Wait, John-Pierre
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Branding (Marketing) -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/42440 , vital:36660
- Description: This study explores people’s insights of personal branding by means of social networking. The continuously increasing competitive marketplace is creating a situation where people find it difficult to stand out from their peers. Personal branding affords the opportunity for people to be noticeable in competitive environments. This study used a qualitative research method employing two phases. The semi-structured personal interviews using a semi-structured interview schedule was conducted in the first phase, while the content analysis using criterion schedules analysing participants’ Facebook and LinkedIn social networks was done in phase two. The results of phase one of the study revealed that the majority of participants did not know what a personal brand was, but they believed they possessed a personal brand. Phase two of the study revealed that only a few participants had a coherently perceived personal brand and presented personal brands on both Facebook and LinkedIn. Phase two of the study also revealed that the majority of participants more prominently presented the skills necessary for the future work environment on Facebook rather than LinkedIn. In conclusion, the findings showed that most participants did not actively manage their personal brands across multiple social networking sites. They also did not effectively present the necessary skills for the future work environment on their social networking profiles.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Personal development preferences across generations and implications for organisations
- Authors: Berry, Simone Michelle
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Career development
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/36544 , vital:33964
- Description: Due to generational differences in organisations, it is sensible to determine the learning preferences of professional employees across generations so that organisations can provide learning opportunities that these employees will embrace. The purpose of this study was therefore to determine the personal development preferences of professional employees from different generations within corporate organisations in Cape Town. The research intends to aid organisations that upskill their employees and to ensure they are utilising the most effective and efficient methods. To this effect, a survey with a self-administered questionnaire was provided to 59 professional employees across several generations utilising a Likert scale where the participants were able to rate the different developmental strategies based on their preferences. The results revealed that similarities existed between the generations in relation to their preferences; however, younger generations were more likely to be open to several personal development strategies, whereas older generations had a refined preference they have developed over the years. It is consequently recommended to organisations to customise their training methods to the different generational groups, based on their preferences and thereby to use this method to aid professional employees in understanding each other.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Berry, Simone Michelle
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Career development
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/36544 , vital:33964
- Description: Due to generational differences in organisations, it is sensible to determine the learning preferences of professional employees across generations so that organisations can provide learning opportunities that these employees will embrace. The purpose of this study was therefore to determine the personal development preferences of professional employees from different generations within corporate organisations in Cape Town. The research intends to aid organisations that upskill their employees and to ensure they are utilising the most effective and efficient methods. To this effect, a survey with a self-administered questionnaire was provided to 59 professional employees across several generations utilising a Likert scale where the participants were able to rate the different developmental strategies based on their preferences. The results revealed that similarities existed between the generations in relation to their preferences; however, younger generations were more likely to be open to several personal development strategies, whereas older generations had a refined preference they have developed over the years. It is consequently recommended to organisations to customise their training methods to the different generational groups, based on their preferences and thereby to use this method to aid professional employees in understanding each other.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Purchasing power parity in a newly industrialised country
- Authors: De Villiers, David James
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- Econometric models , Purchasing power parity -- Econometric models , Purchasing power
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39578 , vital:35292
- Description: A newly industrialised country (NIC) is a nation whose rapid industrial growth is delivering high levels of economic development. The ‘NIC’ term is however inappropriately applied: thus this study develops a fresh exposition of the concept. Argentina, Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Thailand, Turkey, Vietnam, and South Africa are identified as supposed present-day NICs. Regardless of the industrialisation strategy being pursued, NICs experience exchange rates misaligned in terms of equilibrium value. This can lead to an unpredictable exchange rate, and the failure of the empirical validation of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. Theory suggests that there exist several frictions to price movements which manifest themselves as nonlinear adjustment processes. Common empirical methodologies for evaluating PPP are however inadequate in accounting for these phenomena. To close the gap between theory and empirical evidence, the Kapetanois-Shin-Snell unit root test, augmented with flexible Fourier functions with fractional frequencies (KSS-FFFFF), is conducted in order to empirically validate the PPP hypothesis when applied to NICs. This model is capable of capturing heterogeneous smooth transitions in regime switching, and approximating unknown structural breaks in the time series. The researcher developed a novel numerical method in the form of a binary search algorithm for selecting the optimal fractional frequency of the flexible Fourier functions. This procedure significantly reduces both the approximation error and the computational cost of flexible Fourier functions with fractional frequencies. The main result of the study is that all NIC’s real exchange rates are mean-reverting over the annual and monthly periods of 1960-2016 and 1970:1-2017:11. Therefore the traditional Casselian version of PPP holds true in each NIC.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: De Villiers, David James
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- Econometric models , Purchasing power parity -- Econometric models , Purchasing power
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39578 , vital:35292
- Description: A newly industrialised country (NIC) is a nation whose rapid industrial growth is delivering high levels of economic development. The ‘NIC’ term is however inappropriately applied: thus this study develops a fresh exposition of the concept. Argentina, Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Thailand, Turkey, Vietnam, and South Africa are identified as supposed present-day NICs. Regardless of the industrialisation strategy being pursued, NICs experience exchange rates misaligned in terms of equilibrium value. This can lead to an unpredictable exchange rate, and the failure of the empirical validation of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. Theory suggests that there exist several frictions to price movements which manifest themselves as nonlinear adjustment processes. Common empirical methodologies for evaluating PPP are however inadequate in accounting for these phenomena. To close the gap between theory and empirical evidence, the Kapetanois-Shin-Snell unit root test, augmented with flexible Fourier functions with fractional frequencies (KSS-FFFFF), is conducted in order to empirically validate the PPP hypothesis when applied to NICs. This model is capable of capturing heterogeneous smooth transitions in regime switching, and approximating unknown structural breaks in the time series. The researcher developed a novel numerical method in the form of a binary search algorithm for selecting the optimal fractional frequency of the flexible Fourier functions. This procedure significantly reduces both the approximation error and the computational cost of flexible Fourier functions with fractional frequencies. The main result of the study is that all NIC’s real exchange rates are mean-reverting over the annual and monthly periods of 1960-2016 and 1970:1-2017:11. Therefore the traditional Casselian version of PPP holds true in each NIC.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Social movements and economic development in post apartheid South Africa: lessons from Latin America
- Authors: Makoni, Tinotenda Charity
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991- , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994- , Social movements -- South Africa , Social movements -- Latin America , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76420 , vital:30561
- Description: The aim of this research is to bring the literature on political agency and economics together in an analysis of whether social movements can play an important role in economic development in post-apartheid South Africa. The entrenched discourse of sluggish growth and high inequality in post-apartheid South Africa can largely be attributed to the political decision to implement a neoliberal economic development orthodoxy. On the one hand, there is an urgent need to shift the economic development model to an alternate developmentalist model. However, no clearly articulated alternative developmental model has emerged. As a result, economically, South Africa is seemingly stuck. On the other hand, the selection of an economic development model and change in macroeconomic policies requires a political shift. Politically, formal politics has assumed the form of neoliberal democracy, characterised by a largely centralised state and the usurpation of the state and institutions by a national bourgeoisie. Social movements have emerged in response to the failure of neoliberalism to fulfil the promises of early post independent periods. They have been largely successful at highlighting the injustices and the inequalities in the country. However their ability to influence structural economic development has come into question. Firstly, social movements and their “politically destabilising distributive demands” have faced repression from the state as the state and institutions are aligned behind the interests of capital under a neoliberal democracy. Secondly, social movements in South Africa have been largely ideologically under-developed. They have been largely fragmented and tended to contest specific single issues rather than aiming to shift the deeper underlying systemic drivers behind the symptomatic immediate discomforts. The economic dimensions of such a shift are particularly unclear. This fragmentation and apparent lack of economic pragmatism make management or suppression of disruptive movements by the state relatively easy. The research uses a contrast between the Latin American social movements against a South African background in order to see what lessons South Africa can draw from social movements in Latin America. The Latin American case is cautiously more positive and provides comparably more sanguine lessons. In this way, this research seeks to construct a more comprehensive framework for the further study of social movements in South Africa and their potential impact on economic development in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Social movements and economic development in post apartheid South Africa: lessons from Latin America
- Authors: Makoni, Tinotenda Charity
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991- , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994- , Social movements -- South Africa , Social movements -- Latin America , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76420 , vital:30561
- Description: The aim of this research is to bring the literature on political agency and economics together in an analysis of whether social movements can play an important role in economic development in post-apartheid South Africa. The entrenched discourse of sluggish growth and high inequality in post-apartheid South Africa can largely be attributed to the political decision to implement a neoliberal economic development orthodoxy. On the one hand, there is an urgent need to shift the economic development model to an alternate developmentalist model. However, no clearly articulated alternative developmental model has emerged. As a result, economically, South Africa is seemingly stuck. On the other hand, the selection of an economic development model and change in macroeconomic policies requires a political shift. Politically, formal politics has assumed the form of neoliberal democracy, characterised by a largely centralised state and the usurpation of the state and institutions by a national bourgeoisie. Social movements have emerged in response to the failure of neoliberalism to fulfil the promises of early post independent periods. They have been largely successful at highlighting the injustices and the inequalities in the country. However their ability to influence structural economic development has come into question. Firstly, social movements and their “politically destabilising distributive demands” have faced repression from the state as the state and institutions are aligned behind the interests of capital under a neoliberal democracy. Secondly, social movements in South Africa have been largely ideologically under-developed. They have been largely fragmented and tended to contest specific single issues rather than aiming to shift the deeper underlying systemic drivers behind the symptomatic immediate discomforts. The economic dimensions of such a shift are particularly unclear. This fragmentation and apparent lack of economic pragmatism make management or suppression of disruptive movements by the state relatively easy. The research uses a contrast between the Latin American social movements against a South African background in order to see what lessons South Africa can draw from social movements in Latin America. The Latin American case is cautiously more positive and provides comparably more sanguine lessons. In this way, this research seeks to construct a more comprehensive framework for the further study of social movements in South Africa and their potential impact on economic development in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Sustainability reporting guidelines for higher educational institutions in South Africa
- Authors: Zietsman, Jaco
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Education, Higher -- South Africa , Corporation reports Sustainability
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/33384 , vital:32754
- Description: In the higher education sector, a number of Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) are playing a leading role in promoting sustainable initiatives. Managing these initiatives effectively can be a complex task and requires data and information from multiple sources. HEIs must ensure financial sustainability, social sustainability, environmental sustainability and educational sustainability. HEIs in South Africa are required to produce a sustainability report for the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) on an annual basis. HEIs are not required to use a specific set of guidelines to create a report that complies with the DHET reporting requirements. HEIs face a number of challenges in effectively managing and reporting on sustainability information, such as poor sharing and communication of information and combining information from different sources to form an integrated report. Well-structured guidelines that adheres to institution standards and governmental reporting requirements can effectively streamline the sustainability reporting process. This study investigates the requirements and challenges of effective sustainability reporting for HEIs in South Africa. A set of Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) G4 guidelines were reworked to support effective sustainability reporting by South African HEIs. Nelson Mandela University is one such HEI, which is affected by the challenges of managing and reporting on strategic sustainability information. Nelson Mandela University was therefore used as a case study in this research study. An in-depth study was done exploring how prominent international universities apply the GRI guidelines to contribute and generate integrated sustainability reports for their specific HEIs and general reporting needs and requirements. Additionally, an in-depth study of the German integrated reporting guidelines for HEI’s was conducted. Furthermore, a study of the South African DHET reporting requirements was conducted to explore the similarities that exists between the GRI (G4) guidelines and DHET requirements. The guidelines were evaluated by Nelson Mandela University personnel and academics. The final product consists of a set of GRI guidelines that have been adapted to satisfy both GRI and DHET requirements for integrated sustainability reporting for South African HEIs. The contributions from this study are a set of GRI G4 guidelines and examples for integrated sustainability reporting and management for HEIs in South Africa. The set of adapted GRI guidelines for HEIs in South Africa was created with the assistance of the strategic management departments at Nelson Mandela University. The GRI guidelines have been reworded to be specifically applicable to South African HEIs and contain instructions and guidelines on how to generate an integrated sustainability report for a South African HEI.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Zietsman, Jaco
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Education, Higher -- South Africa , Corporation reports Sustainability
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/33384 , vital:32754
- Description: In the higher education sector, a number of Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) are playing a leading role in promoting sustainable initiatives. Managing these initiatives effectively can be a complex task and requires data and information from multiple sources. HEIs must ensure financial sustainability, social sustainability, environmental sustainability and educational sustainability. HEIs in South Africa are required to produce a sustainability report for the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) on an annual basis. HEIs are not required to use a specific set of guidelines to create a report that complies with the DHET reporting requirements. HEIs face a number of challenges in effectively managing and reporting on sustainability information, such as poor sharing and communication of information and combining information from different sources to form an integrated report. Well-structured guidelines that adheres to institution standards and governmental reporting requirements can effectively streamline the sustainability reporting process. This study investigates the requirements and challenges of effective sustainability reporting for HEIs in South Africa. A set of Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) G4 guidelines were reworked to support effective sustainability reporting by South African HEIs. Nelson Mandela University is one such HEI, which is affected by the challenges of managing and reporting on strategic sustainability information. Nelson Mandela University was therefore used as a case study in this research study. An in-depth study was done exploring how prominent international universities apply the GRI guidelines to contribute and generate integrated sustainability reports for their specific HEIs and general reporting needs and requirements. Additionally, an in-depth study of the German integrated reporting guidelines for HEI’s was conducted. Furthermore, a study of the South African DHET reporting requirements was conducted to explore the similarities that exists between the GRI (G4) guidelines and DHET requirements. The guidelines were evaluated by Nelson Mandela University personnel and academics. The final product consists of a set of GRI guidelines that have been adapted to satisfy both GRI and DHET requirements for integrated sustainability reporting for South African HEIs. The contributions from this study are a set of GRI G4 guidelines and examples for integrated sustainability reporting and management for HEIs in South Africa. The set of adapted GRI guidelines for HEIs in South Africa was created with the assistance of the strategic management departments at Nelson Mandela University. The GRI guidelines have been reworded to be specifically applicable to South African HEIs and contain instructions and guidelines on how to generate an integrated sustainability report for a South African HEI.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Testing the efficient market hypothesis in the cryptocurrency market
- Authors: Apopo, Natalya Camilla
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Digital currency
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/42427 , vital:36662
- Description: Digital currencies are rising in popularity owing to their purported benefits and the speculative profits that investors are making in the market. These currencies, though decentralised in substance, can be purchased using digital wallets from cryptocurrency exchange platforms around the world. In Africa, these platforms are still at the nascent stages of growth and development, but evidence suggests a burgeoning potential in these markets. Volatility in these markets has been a topic of concern for many empirical investigations with most finding corroborative evidence of excess volatility in the digital currency market. However, there is a conflicting body of evidence when it comes to the studies evaluating the efficiency of the virtual currency market. The efficient market hypothesis ( EMH)is a controversial theory in finance. Proponents argue that it provides a basis for understanding financial markets whereas opponents suggest that the hypothesis is premature in its assumptions of the real functioning of these markets. Though not perfect, the efficient markets model provides a sufficient baseline against which capital markets may be analysed. Besides being one of the most empirically investigated theories in finance, its utility led to the development of later models such as the capital asset pricing model. In postulating that the prices of securities reflect all available information in capital markets, the efficient markets theory lends itself to testing the efficacy levels of the cryptocurrency market. For the purposes of this study, the weak version of the efficient markets theory was evaluated as itis considered the lowest possible form of efficiency attainable. Using both linear and nonlinear unit root testing methodologies, a significant subset of the cryptocurrency market was investigated for inefficiencies via the null hypothesis of non-stationarity. There were mixed results from the testing process, but a substantial portion of the currencies investigated rejected the null of a unit root in favour of stationarity, providing some evidence against weak form efficiency. For these reasons, it is recommended that further research be conducted in the virtual currency markets to offer more conclusive findings.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Apopo, Natalya Camilla
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Digital currency
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/42427 , vital:36662
- Description: Digital currencies are rising in popularity owing to their purported benefits and the speculative profits that investors are making in the market. These currencies, though decentralised in substance, can be purchased using digital wallets from cryptocurrency exchange platforms around the world. In Africa, these platforms are still at the nascent stages of growth and development, but evidence suggests a burgeoning potential in these markets. Volatility in these markets has been a topic of concern for many empirical investigations with most finding corroborative evidence of excess volatility in the digital currency market. However, there is a conflicting body of evidence when it comes to the studies evaluating the efficiency of the virtual currency market. The efficient market hypothesis ( EMH)is a controversial theory in finance. Proponents argue that it provides a basis for understanding financial markets whereas opponents suggest that the hypothesis is premature in its assumptions of the real functioning of these markets. Though not perfect, the efficient markets model provides a sufficient baseline against which capital markets may be analysed. Besides being one of the most empirically investigated theories in finance, its utility led to the development of later models such as the capital asset pricing model. In postulating that the prices of securities reflect all available information in capital markets, the efficient markets theory lends itself to testing the efficacy levels of the cryptocurrency market. For the purposes of this study, the weak version of the efficient markets theory was evaluated as itis considered the lowest possible form of efficiency attainable. Using both linear and nonlinear unit root testing methodologies, a significant subset of the cryptocurrency market was investigated for inefficiencies via the null hypothesis of non-stationarity. There were mixed results from the testing process, but a substantial portion of the currencies investigated rejected the null of a unit root in favour of stationarity, providing some evidence against weak form efficiency. For these reasons, it is recommended that further research be conducted in the virtual currency markets to offer more conclusive findings.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Testing the validity of Okun’s law in South Africa within the democratic era
- Authors: Mavikela, Nomahlubi
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Labor market -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions Unemployment -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/41559 , vital:36512
- Description: The challenge of high unemployment rates coupled with sluggish growth rates is an important issue in developing economies. The presence of high unemployment rates implies the lack of utilisation of labour resources efficiently. Hence, it being of grave importance for government to prioritise as a major macroeconomic goal the attainment of full employment due to its ability of maximising output. Okun’s law is a well-known relationship postulating an inverse relationship between unemployment and output, implying that an increase in unemployment would be associated with a decline in output and vice versa. Since the pioneer work of Okun (1962), a large volume of empirical studies have been conducted looking at the relationship between economic growth and the rate of unemployment. However, their findings are varied due to differences in the model specification, choice of variables used, econometric models and time periods. The main objective of this dissertation is to test the validity of Okun’s law in South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1994-2016. The importance of determining the effect of the association will inform policy decisions. A variety of detrending methods are utilised such as the Hodrick-Prescott filter, Corbae Ouliaris FD filter and L1 trend filter to decomposed output and unemployment into their trend and cyclical components. Furthermore, the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model together with the error correction model (ECM) are employed to obtain the short and long-run estimates. Overall, the empirical results revealed that the Okun’s coefficients magnitude differed over time; however, only a selected few were found to be statistically significant for the tested time periods. Using the ARDL model the study found that in the long-run a 1% increase in GDP for the 2001-2008 time period was associated with a 0.17% decline in unemployment. While a 1% increase in unemployment in the long-run resulted in 0.78% decline in GDP. Meanwhile, in the short-run, the study confirmed that a 1% increase in GDP is associated with 0.21%-0.69% decline in unemployment. While a 1% increase in unemployment resulted in a 0.10%-0.14% decline in GDP. These findings reveal that measures aimed at boosting economic growth will have a bigger impact in reducing unemployment levels. Furthermore, these findings reiterate the need for effective policies to reduce the gradually increasing unemployment rate and improving growth levels.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Mavikela, Nomahlubi
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Labor market -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions Unemployment -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/41559 , vital:36512
- Description: The challenge of high unemployment rates coupled with sluggish growth rates is an important issue in developing economies. The presence of high unemployment rates implies the lack of utilisation of labour resources efficiently. Hence, it being of grave importance for government to prioritise as a major macroeconomic goal the attainment of full employment due to its ability of maximising output. Okun’s law is a well-known relationship postulating an inverse relationship between unemployment and output, implying that an increase in unemployment would be associated with a decline in output and vice versa. Since the pioneer work of Okun (1962), a large volume of empirical studies have been conducted looking at the relationship between economic growth and the rate of unemployment. However, their findings are varied due to differences in the model specification, choice of variables used, econometric models and time periods. The main objective of this dissertation is to test the validity of Okun’s law in South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1994-2016. The importance of determining the effect of the association will inform policy decisions. A variety of detrending methods are utilised such as the Hodrick-Prescott filter, Corbae Ouliaris FD filter and L1 trend filter to decomposed output and unemployment into their trend and cyclical components. Furthermore, the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model together with the error correction model (ECM) are employed to obtain the short and long-run estimates. Overall, the empirical results revealed that the Okun’s coefficients magnitude differed over time; however, only a selected few were found to be statistically significant for the tested time periods. Using the ARDL model the study found that in the long-run a 1% increase in GDP for the 2001-2008 time period was associated with a 0.17% decline in unemployment. While a 1% increase in unemployment in the long-run resulted in 0.78% decline in GDP. Meanwhile, in the short-run, the study confirmed that a 1% increase in GDP is associated with 0.21%-0.69% decline in unemployment. While a 1% increase in unemployment resulted in a 0.10%-0.14% decline in GDP. These findings reveal that measures aimed at boosting economic growth will have a bigger impact in reducing unemployment levels. Furthermore, these findings reiterate the need for effective policies to reduce the gradually increasing unemployment rate and improving growth levels.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The determinants of economic growth in BRICS Countries
- Authors: Nyirenda, Chimwemwe
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Economic development -- BRIC countries , BRIC countries -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/42946 , vital:36713
- Description: One of the key goals of the formation of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) was to promote stability in trade and investment which would boost growth as the five BRICS countries recovered from the 2009 global financial crisis. This however has not been the case for all BRICS countries where only certain members have experienced a substantial increase in growth while others have experienced declining growth rates. The objective of this study was to analyse the determinants of economic growth in BRICS countries in order to investigate the causes of growth rates varying amongst the BRICS economies. This paper considered various economic theories for proximate and fundamental determinants of growth which included: The Harrod-Domar model, The Neoclassical Growth Theory, The Endogenous Growth Model, The New Growth Theory, Institutions and Economic Growth, Democracy, The Quality of Governance and Growth, Finance and Growth, Trade and Economic Growth and lastly Financial Openness and Growth. The study was conducted for a period covering from 1995 to 2016 and made use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for the single-country analysis and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) was used for the panel analysis. In the single-country analysis, the descriptive statistics indicated that individually all of the BRICS members on average experienced positive GDP growth, positive investment (capital formation) and trade openness between 1995 to 2016. The single-country analysis made use of the ARDL Bounds test to investigate cointegration in each country and a long-run relationship was established in all BRICS countries except for China. The augmented Solow model was extended to incorporate both proximate and fundamental determinants of growth. The estimated results for the ARDL model found that capital and trade openness were significant in determining GDP growth for all of the BRICS countries except for China. FDI was insignificant in determining growth in BRICS countries except for India and the remaining variables gave mixed results between the countries. The error correction term (ECT) was significant and negative in all of the BRICS countries (except for China) which indicated that there was convergence. In the panel analysis, a long-run relationship was established using the KAO Residual cointegration test. The panel correlations test for BRICS revealed that GDP growth had a positive correlation with all the variables under analysis except for inflation which was in line with the anticipated correlations. The PMG estimated results for BRICS found that the proximate determinants (capital and labour) were both significant in determining growth in the long-run where capital had a positive relationship and labour had a negative relationship with growth. Trade openness, inflation and FDI were significant in determining growth in the long-run, though government expenditure was insignificant in determining growth. The error correction term for BRICS illustrated that there was convergence and 92% of the disequilibrium in the short-run is corrected each year. The analysis revealed that BRICS economies should adopt more policies that encourage domestic investment and trade in order to boost growth. Policies such as relaxing local corporation taxes can encourage domestic investment which will aid local businesses in competing against foreign competition. Countries such as Brazil, India and South Africa can adopt more policies that encourage the development and growth of SMME’s. An area for future research would be to incorporate a location variable into the fundamental determinants of growth where the analysis could be conducted per region in each of the BRICS countries, which would give a broader view on which regions are determining growth in BRICS countries.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Nyirenda, Chimwemwe
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Economic development -- BRIC countries , BRIC countries -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/42946 , vital:36713
- Description: One of the key goals of the formation of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) was to promote stability in trade and investment which would boost growth as the five BRICS countries recovered from the 2009 global financial crisis. This however has not been the case for all BRICS countries where only certain members have experienced a substantial increase in growth while others have experienced declining growth rates. The objective of this study was to analyse the determinants of economic growth in BRICS countries in order to investigate the causes of growth rates varying amongst the BRICS economies. This paper considered various economic theories for proximate and fundamental determinants of growth which included: The Harrod-Domar model, The Neoclassical Growth Theory, The Endogenous Growth Model, The New Growth Theory, Institutions and Economic Growth, Democracy, The Quality of Governance and Growth, Finance and Growth, Trade and Economic Growth and lastly Financial Openness and Growth. The study was conducted for a period covering from 1995 to 2016 and made use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for the single-country analysis and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) was used for the panel analysis. In the single-country analysis, the descriptive statistics indicated that individually all of the BRICS members on average experienced positive GDP growth, positive investment (capital formation) and trade openness between 1995 to 2016. The single-country analysis made use of the ARDL Bounds test to investigate cointegration in each country and a long-run relationship was established in all BRICS countries except for China. The augmented Solow model was extended to incorporate both proximate and fundamental determinants of growth. The estimated results for the ARDL model found that capital and trade openness were significant in determining GDP growth for all of the BRICS countries except for China. FDI was insignificant in determining growth in BRICS countries except for India and the remaining variables gave mixed results between the countries. The error correction term (ECT) was significant and negative in all of the BRICS countries (except for China) which indicated that there was convergence. In the panel analysis, a long-run relationship was established using the KAO Residual cointegration test. The panel correlations test for BRICS revealed that GDP growth had a positive correlation with all the variables under analysis except for inflation which was in line with the anticipated correlations. The PMG estimated results for BRICS found that the proximate determinants (capital and labour) were both significant in determining growth in the long-run where capital had a positive relationship and labour had a negative relationship with growth. Trade openness, inflation and FDI were significant in determining growth in the long-run, though government expenditure was insignificant in determining growth. The error correction term for BRICS illustrated that there was convergence and 92% of the disequilibrium in the short-run is corrected each year. The analysis revealed that BRICS economies should adopt more policies that encourage domestic investment and trade in order to boost growth. Policies such as relaxing local corporation taxes can encourage domestic investment which will aid local businesses in competing against foreign competition. Countries such as Brazil, India and South Africa can adopt more policies that encourage the development and growth of SMME’s. An area for future research would be to incorporate a location variable into the fundamental determinants of growth where the analysis could be conducted per region in each of the BRICS countries, which would give a broader view on which regions are determining growth in BRICS countries.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The effect of the exchange rate on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Maxwele, Chuma
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa -- Econometric models Economic development -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/41548 , vital:36505
- Description: The study examines the effect of the exchange rate on South African economic growth rate, as this relationship is of paramount importance in South Africa, since the country has a highly volatile exchange rate in among emerging economies, and this has a significant impact on economic growth. The exchange rate can be explained or defined as the value of the home country or domestic currency in relation to foreign currencies, and economic growth, which is measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), which is the measure of currently produced final output in a country at a specific time period, usually a year or quarter. It has been long known that an inadequately or poorly managed exchange rate can be problematic in a country’s economic growth rate. Some economists point out that management of a country’s foreign exchange market is of utmost importance. Furthermore, bad exchange rate management can lead to unstable international relations that detrimentally affect the international trade of a country and cause large speculative financial flows, which could cause financial markets to be disrupted and also lead inefficient allocation of funds. At the same time, competitive exchange rate promotes a suitable economic environment that is a precondition when it comes to expanding of international trade and investment, and gaining of higher economic growth in a country. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the exchange rate on economic growth in South Africa. This study employs a newly developed econometric technique known as non-linear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL). This study employs annual data for the period of 1970 to 2017. The first variable is the real effective exchange rate of the rand, and the study compares the value of the rand against the currencies of the twenty trading partners. The second variable is economic growth, which is measured in terms of the gross domestic product (GDP). GDP is the value of output produced within the region or borders of a country during a period of time, usually a year or quarter. Investment is another variable used, and it is categorised into economic investment (capital formation) and financial investment but the study adopts economic investment. Economic investment is the quantity of capital stock in a society, simple put it is goods used in the making of other goods. Government expenditure is also used in the study, and government expenditure is about public goods and services provided to society, and is a major component of gross domestic product. The last variable employed in the study is broad money supply as a percentage of GDP, which can be explained as the sum of the currency outside financial institutions, such as demand deposits other than the ones for government, the time, savings, and foreign currency of residents other than the government. GDP data was obtained from the electronic data bases of South African Reserve Bank, and all the remaining variables were obtained from the electronic data bases of the World Bank. The results of the NARDL model indicate that a positive change of the real effective exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the gross domestic product in the long-run, while a negative change of the real effective exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the gross domestic product in the long-run. In the short-run, the results also behave in the same manner as in the long-run. The study recommends that the real effective exchange rate should not be the only area to look into when trying to improve economic growth in South Africa. Investments must be looked into as well, and South Africa needs more growth desperately.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Maxwele, Chuma
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa -- Econometric models Economic development -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/41548 , vital:36505
- Description: The study examines the effect of the exchange rate on South African economic growth rate, as this relationship is of paramount importance in South Africa, since the country has a highly volatile exchange rate in among emerging economies, and this has a significant impact on economic growth. The exchange rate can be explained or defined as the value of the home country or domestic currency in relation to foreign currencies, and economic growth, which is measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), which is the measure of currently produced final output in a country at a specific time period, usually a year or quarter. It has been long known that an inadequately or poorly managed exchange rate can be problematic in a country’s economic growth rate. Some economists point out that management of a country’s foreign exchange market is of utmost importance. Furthermore, bad exchange rate management can lead to unstable international relations that detrimentally affect the international trade of a country and cause large speculative financial flows, which could cause financial markets to be disrupted and also lead inefficient allocation of funds. At the same time, competitive exchange rate promotes a suitable economic environment that is a precondition when it comes to expanding of international trade and investment, and gaining of higher economic growth in a country. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the exchange rate on economic growth in South Africa. This study employs a newly developed econometric technique known as non-linear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL). This study employs annual data for the period of 1970 to 2017. The first variable is the real effective exchange rate of the rand, and the study compares the value of the rand against the currencies of the twenty trading partners. The second variable is economic growth, which is measured in terms of the gross domestic product (GDP). GDP is the value of output produced within the region or borders of a country during a period of time, usually a year or quarter. Investment is another variable used, and it is categorised into economic investment (capital formation) and financial investment but the study adopts economic investment. Economic investment is the quantity of capital stock in a society, simple put it is goods used in the making of other goods. Government expenditure is also used in the study, and government expenditure is about public goods and services provided to society, and is a major component of gross domestic product. The last variable employed in the study is broad money supply as a percentage of GDP, which can be explained as the sum of the currency outside financial institutions, such as demand deposits other than the ones for government, the time, savings, and foreign currency of residents other than the government. GDP data was obtained from the electronic data bases of South African Reserve Bank, and all the remaining variables were obtained from the electronic data bases of the World Bank. The results of the NARDL model indicate that a positive change of the real effective exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the gross domestic product in the long-run, while a negative change of the real effective exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the gross domestic product in the long-run. In the short-run, the results also behave in the same manner as in the long-run. The study recommends that the real effective exchange rate should not be the only area to look into when trying to improve economic growth in South Africa. Investments must be looked into as well, and South Africa needs more growth desperately.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The effect of the exchange rate on inflation in South Africa
- Authors: Gwili, Lutho Olwethu
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- Africa South Foreign exchange rates -- Econometric models -- Africa South South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39643 , vital:35341
- Description: The depreciation of the rand in recent years has been one of the indicators of recession in South Africa. The unpredictability of the rand and its volatility has led to great inflationary pressure. The process of examining the relationship between South Africa’s exchange rate and inflation rate has become increasingly relevant down the years. This study analyses the relationship between exchange rate and inflation in South Africa from 1994Q1 to 2017Q4. Its objective is to establish the effect of the exchange rate on inflation in South Africa. The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is employed as the method of estimation. Trends in exchange rate and inflation between 1980 and 2017 are analysed. Monetary régimes and shifts in inflation down the years are discussed. Key events like the Asian financial crisis of 1998, the introduction of the inflation targeting framework in 2000, the significant depreciation of the rand in 2001 and the global financial crisis in 2008/09 all contributed majorly in the way the country’s monetary policy and inflation take the form they have today. The literature identifies the exchange rate pass-through, purchasing power parity (PPP) and absolute power parity (APP) as exchange rate theories, all in which are discussed in detail. Empirical evidence suggests a predominantly positive relationship between inflation rate and exchange rate in other African countries as well as in developed countries. The exchange rate pass-through in South Africa appears to have lessened down the years. The NARDL model is discussed in detail in the research methodology chapter. The main reason for using this method of estimation is to capture asymmetry effects that may exist between inflation and exchange rate. First and second generation unit root tests, like Ng-Perron, DF-GLS and KSS, are discussed in detail to capture the stationarity of the variables. The variables of interest include nominal effective exchange rate, Brent crude oil prices, prime lending rate, unemployment rate and M3 money supply. This is done in line with the literature. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is briefly discussed in the research methodology chapter. The findings of the study reveal that an appreciation in the exchange rate decreases the inflation rate. The results also reveal that a depreciation in the exchange rate decreases the inflation rate, which happens not to be in line with economic theory. This implies that a depreciation has a negative effect on inflation. A positive relationship between oil price and inflation is found to exist. A negative relationship is found to exist between M3 money supply and inflation. There is a positive relationship between prime lending rate and inflation. The study found that the Phillips curve does not hold in South Africa. The estimated VAR model results reveal that there exists unidirectional causality running from nominal effective exchange rate to inflation rate. The impulse response function reveals a negative relationship between exchange rate and inflation. Therefore, the study proposes that policymakers evolve means of evaluating exchange rate volatility, and that lending rates be made flexible. This will help curb inflation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Gwili, Lutho Olwethu
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- Africa South Foreign exchange rates -- Econometric models -- Africa South South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39643 , vital:35341
- Description: The depreciation of the rand in recent years has been one of the indicators of recession in South Africa. The unpredictability of the rand and its volatility has led to great inflationary pressure. The process of examining the relationship between South Africa’s exchange rate and inflation rate has become increasingly relevant down the years. This study analyses the relationship between exchange rate and inflation in South Africa from 1994Q1 to 2017Q4. Its objective is to establish the effect of the exchange rate on inflation in South Africa. The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is employed as the method of estimation. Trends in exchange rate and inflation between 1980 and 2017 are analysed. Monetary régimes and shifts in inflation down the years are discussed. Key events like the Asian financial crisis of 1998, the introduction of the inflation targeting framework in 2000, the significant depreciation of the rand in 2001 and the global financial crisis in 2008/09 all contributed majorly in the way the country’s monetary policy and inflation take the form they have today. The literature identifies the exchange rate pass-through, purchasing power parity (PPP) and absolute power parity (APP) as exchange rate theories, all in which are discussed in detail. Empirical evidence suggests a predominantly positive relationship between inflation rate and exchange rate in other African countries as well as in developed countries. The exchange rate pass-through in South Africa appears to have lessened down the years. The NARDL model is discussed in detail in the research methodology chapter. The main reason for using this method of estimation is to capture asymmetry effects that may exist between inflation and exchange rate. First and second generation unit root tests, like Ng-Perron, DF-GLS and KSS, are discussed in detail to capture the stationarity of the variables. The variables of interest include nominal effective exchange rate, Brent crude oil prices, prime lending rate, unemployment rate and M3 money supply. This is done in line with the literature. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is briefly discussed in the research methodology chapter. The findings of the study reveal that an appreciation in the exchange rate decreases the inflation rate. The results also reveal that a depreciation in the exchange rate decreases the inflation rate, which happens not to be in line with economic theory. This implies that a depreciation has a negative effect on inflation. A positive relationship between oil price and inflation is found to exist. A negative relationship is found to exist between M3 money supply and inflation. There is a positive relationship between prime lending rate and inflation. The study found that the Phillips curve does not hold in South Africa. The estimated VAR model results reveal that there exists unidirectional causality running from nominal effective exchange rate to inflation rate. The impulse response function reveals a negative relationship between exchange rate and inflation. Therefore, the study proposes that policymakers evolve means of evaluating exchange rate volatility, and that lending rates be made flexible. This will help curb inflation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The effects of inflation on economic growth and unemployment in light of the global financial crisis in BRICS countries
- Authors: Falakahla, Lwazi
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- BRIC countries , Economic development -- BRIC countries Unemployment -- BRIC countries Monetary policy , Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39829 , vital:35477
- Description: The key critical role played by Central Banks’ monetary policy and government macroeconomic policy relies on precise and timely forecasts on economic growth along the business cycle periods. In the past, many emerging countries have been facing problems of high escalating inflationary prices. This dissertation is set out to examine the influence of inflation on output growth and unemployment considering the global financial crisis in BRICS countries using annual data collected over the period 1980 to 2016. The study is divided into two sections; namely macroeconomic policy and monetary policy principles. The empirical analyses are computed through using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The macroeconomic policy findings show that there is a negative long run relationship between inflation and economic growth in Russia and South Africa. The study’s ARDL bounds test for cointegration results also indicated that there is statistically significant long run comovement between inflation and economic growth in all BRICS countries. The study results also provided that there is an existence of a negative short run relationship between inflation and economic growth in South Africa. The Phillips curve results indicated that a positive long run trade-off between inflation and unemployment is found and no short run relationship discovered. It is also revealed that the long run co-movement between inflation and unemployment only exists in Russia and South Africa. The study is significant because it contributes to the empirical determinants of long term prosperity of the BRICS partners.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Falakahla, Lwazi
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- BRIC countries , Economic development -- BRIC countries Unemployment -- BRIC countries Monetary policy , Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39829 , vital:35477
- Description: The key critical role played by Central Banks’ monetary policy and government macroeconomic policy relies on precise and timely forecasts on economic growth along the business cycle periods. In the past, many emerging countries have been facing problems of high escalating inflationary prices. This dissertation is set out to examine the influence of inflation on output growth and unemployment considering the global financial crisis in BRICS countries using annual data collected over the period 1980 to 2016. The study is divided into two sections; namely macroeconomic policy and monetary policy principles. The empirical analyses are computed through using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The macroeconomic policy findings show that there is a negative long run relationship between inflation and economic growth in Russia and South Africa. The study’s ARDL bounds test for cointegration results also indicated that there is statistically significant long run comovement between inflation and economic growth in all BRICS countries. The study results also provided that there is an existence of a negative short run relationship between inflation and economic growth in South Africa. The Phillips curve results indicated that a positive long run trade-off between inflation and unemployment is found and no short run relationship discovered. It is also revealed that the long run co-movement between inflation and unemployment only exists in Russia and South Africa. The study is significant because it contributes to the empirical determinants of long term prosperity of the BRICS partners.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The financial soundness of selected banks in South Africa: a camels rating system approach
- Authors: Manga, Rushil Mohan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Bank failures -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- Risk management , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40889 , vital:36258
- Description: Bank failure continues to feature in South Africa and although it is not uncommon, nor limited to any single country, it has the potential to have significant systemic risks. It is, therefore of the utmost importance to mitigate bank failure where possible. Bank supervision plays a key role in ensuring that individual banks, and the banking sector, remain sound. This study analysed seven selected banks in South Africa namely, ABSA, African Bank, Capitec Bank, FirstRand Bank, Nedbank, Standard Bank and VBS Mutual Bank. The CAMELS rating system was applied to evaluate the component and composite ratings for each selected bank. The empirical evidence exhibited that the CAMELS model has been used world-wide and proved valuable in its simplicity and reliability. The results showed that all banks achieved a rating of three or fair, with the exception being African Bank. African Bank, rated four or marginal, continues to struggle to regain market confidence since its cu0ratorship and restructuring. The study further showed that among the selected banks, management quality and liquidity were two components that consistently showed critical weaknesses, which posed concerns for formal supervision. The study utilised One-way ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) to analyse the results of the CAMELS model. It was found that there was no significant difference in the financial soundness of the selected banks as a measure of the CAMELS model. The study further recommended that the banks invest and focus on developing human resource departments to attain and retain high quality managers in terms of qualifications and experience. The banks’ internal policies need to align, not only with the company’s business targets, but also the personal contentment and fulfilment of employees and managers. This will help reduce frictional unemployment in the banking sector. It must be noted that Capitec was the only bank to avoid a marginal or weak rating in the management quality component. To address the poor rating awarded to the liquidity component in all selected banks, it is recommended that senior management, regulators and supervisors need to work together to implement sound liquidity management practices. The CAMELS model presents a clear depiction of the financial soundness of a bank and can be comparable to other competitive banks within a country. For this reason, the model would be easily understandable, not only to supervisors and senior management, but also investors, stake-holders, their customers and the general population. It is therefore recommended that the SARB publishes a detailed annual report, which analyses all banks in South Africa by way of the CAMELS model.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Manga, Rushil Mohan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Bank failures -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- Risk management , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40889 , vital:36258
- Description: Bank failure continues to feature in South Africa and although it is not uncommon, nor limited to any single country, it has the potential to have significant systemic risks. It is, therefore of the utmost importance to mitigate bank failure where possible. Bank supervision plays a key role in ensuring that individual banks, and the banking sector, remain sound. This study analysed seven selected banks in South Africa namely, ABSA, African Bank, Capitec Bank, FirstRand Bank, Nedbank, Standard Bank and VBS Mutual Bank. The CAMELS rating system was applied to evaluate the component and composite ratings for each selected bank. The empirical evidence exhibited that the CAMELS model has been used world-wide and proved valuable in its simplicity and reliability. The results showed that all banks achieved a rating of three or fair, with the exception being African Bank. African Bank, rated four or marginal, continues to struggle to regain market confidence since its cu0ratorship and restructuring. The study further showed that among the selected banks, management quality and liquidity were two components that consistently showed critical weaknesses, which posed concerns for formal supervision. The study utilised One-way ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) to analyse the results of the CAMELS model. It was found that there was no significant difference in the financial soundness of the selected banks as a measure of the CAMELS model. The study further recommended that the banks invest and focus on developing human resource departments to attain and retain high quality managers in terms of qualifications and experience. The banks’ internal policies need to align, not only with the company’s business targets, but also the personal contentment and fulfilment of employees and managers. This will help reduce frictional unemployment in the banking sector. It must be noted that Capitec was the only bank to avoid a marginal or weak rating in the management quality component. To address the poor rating awarded to the liquidity component in all selected banks, it is recommended that senior management, regulators and supervisors need to work together to implement sound liquidity management practices. The CAMELS model presents a clear depiction of the financial soundness of a bank and can be comparable to other competitive banks within a country. For this reason, the model would be easily understandable, not only to supervisors and senior management, but also investors, stake-holders, their customers and the general population. It is therefore recommended that the SARB publishes a detailed annual report, which analyses all banks in South Africa by way of the CAMELS model.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The impact of unanticipated news announcements by the US Federal Reserve On South African stock returns
- Authors: Sibanda, Lorna
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- United States , International finance , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- United States , United States -- Foreign economic relations -- South Africa , Banks of issue -- United States , Investments -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stocks -- Rate of return , Rate of return -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/94703 , vital:31070
- Description: This thesis analyses whether monetary policy announcement shocks are transmitted across countries, with special emphasis on the impact of US Federal Reserve announcements on the South African stock market. Monetary policy is an important source of economic news and affects the risk perceptions of market participants. This study will improve the understanding of stock price determinants and possibly influence SA monetary policy in guarding against possible shocks originating from abroad. Using Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements over the period 2008 – 2014, the research studied changes in volatility of the South African FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns over this period. An event study and GARCH model approach was adopted to reach the goals of the analysis. The findings were a statistically insignificant connection between SA stock returns and both anticipated and unanticipated US Federal Reserve announcements. Over the sample period, each shock to SA stock returns persisted for approximately 4-5 months. Although SA stock return volatility demonstrated clustering behaviour (indicating sensitivity to economic shocks), the research could not find an obvious relationship between these spikes in volatility and US Federal Reserve announcements. It is concluded that South African stock returns do not change in response to unexpected US monetary policy announcements.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Sibanda, Lorna
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- United States , International finance , South Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- United States , United States -- Foreign economic relations -- South Africa , Banks of issue -- United States , Investments -- South Africa , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stocks -- Rate of return , Rate of return -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/94703 , vital:31070
- Description: This thesis analyses whether monetary policy announcement shocks are transmitted across countries, with special emphasis on the impact of US Federal Reserve announcements on the South African stock market. Monetary policy is an important source of economic news and affects the risk perceptions of market participants. This study will improve the understanding of stock price determinants and possibly influence SA monetary policy in guarding against possible shocks originating from abroad. Using Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements over the period 2008 – 2014, the research studied changes in volatility of the South African FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns over this period. An event study and GARCH model approach was adopted to reach the goals of the analysis. The findings were a statistically insignificant connection between SA stock returns and both anticipated and unanticipated US Federal Reserve announcements. Over the sample period, each shock to SA stock returns persisted for approximately 4-5 months. Although SA stock return volatility demonstrated clustering behaviour (indicating sensitivity to economic shocks), the research could not find an obvious relationship between these spikes in volatility and US Federal Reserve announcements. It is concluded that South African stock returns do not change in response to unexpected US monetary policy announcements.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The influence of financial socialisation agents on young professionals’ financial literacy levels
- Authors: Saayman, Michelle
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- Social aspects -- South Africa , Financial literacy -- South Africa Finance, Personal -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/43001 , vital:36723
- Description: This study is focused on the levels of financial literacy of young professionals because they are exiting university with high levels of debt and may have low levels of financial literacy as students. These young professionals enter the workforce and face complex financial decisions where they are expected to be able to make independent and sound financial decisions. They have access to all types of financial products and services and have increased levels of household debt as well as the need to fund an ageing population, such as their parents. The main objective of this study was to investigate the influence financial socialisation agents have on the financial literacy levels of young professionals. The financial socialisation agents that are investigated are parents, peers, teachers and employers. These financial socialisation agents use various financial socialisation mechanisms to influence the financial literacy of young professionals. The financial socialisation mechanisms that were identified are teaching practices, modelling of financial behaviour and pocket money (employed by parents), peer communication (employed by peers), and financial instruction (employed by both teachers and employers). An extensive literature review on financial socialisation and financial literacy was conducted. This led to the development of a conceptual framework that is tested empirically. In order to test the conceptual model for the study, a quantitative research approach was adopted. Non-probability snowball and convenience sampling was used to target respondents of the study. A total of 300 questionnaires were distributed to employees in the financial industry between the ages of 20 and 35. Of the 300 questionnaires distributed in the Nelson Mandela Bay, 263 were returned and usable, resulting in a response rate of 88 percent. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to test the empirical data, and included the Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient and a multiple regression analysis. The results showed that while many respondents (42%) scored between 61 and 80 percent for the questions on financial knowledge. Only 15 percent of respondents scored higher for financial knowledge, namely between 81 and 100 percent. In terms of validity and reliability, most of the factors tested are retained; only subjective financial knowledge and financial attitude are disregarded for further analysis. The descriptive statistics showed that respondents scored a mean of 2.649 for the statements measuring educational allowance, a mean of 2.041 for the statements that measure teaching practices that includes modelling of behaviour, and 59 percent of respondents indicated that the statements that measure teaching practices that include modelling of behaviour was true; only 24 percent of respondents believe the statements regarding peer communication to be true, with the other respondents (42%) being neutral. Most of the respondents believe the statements regarding financial instruction to be true, both for financial instruction from teachers (61%) and employers (46%), and the majority (70%) of respondents believe the factor financial behaviour to be true. Only one hypotheses (H4) was accepted: There was a significant positive relationship between employers and financial literacy. The other three hypotheses (H1, H2 and H3) were rejected. H1 proposed that a significant positive relationship exists between parents and financial literacy, H2 that a significant positive relationship between peers and financial literacy exists, and H3 that a significant positive relationship between teachers and financial literacy exists. This mean that other financial socialisation agents, namely, parents, peers and teachers, did not influence financial literacy. The results show that the mechanism employed by employers, financial instruction, has a significant influence on the objective financial knowledge and financial behaviour of young professionals. Based on the results above, it is recommended that South Africa should prioritise the financial literacy of its youth. Policymakers can do this by providing young adults with financial literacy courses and require employers to provide these courses to their employees. The workshops offered by employers to the respondents of the study resulted in these respondents having higher levels of financial literacy, as H4 proposed and was supported in the results. Therefore, employers should consider providing workshops as part of their benefit package to their employees. These workshops can be about various financial matters, such as retirement planning, debt management, savings and investments, the importance of insurance and assurance, as well as a medical aid and how to apply for credit, such as home loans, credit cards and vehicle assistance. Other options that employers can consider is sending informative emails on a regular basis to their employees. Parents should also have access to financial literacy courses because the study found that parents’ teaching practices, which includes modelling of behaviour, influence the financial behaviour of young professionals. Teachers, through financial instruction, also influence the financial behaviour of young professionals. Therefore, teachers and other educators or education institutions should consider offering formal financial instruction, either on the internet, through financial articles or workshops about budgeting, record keeping of expenses, cost of credit, savings and inflation. Therefore in conclusion, it is important that policymakers and employers consider this research and provide young professionals with the necessary resources to help them make complex financial decisions. This study has contributed to literature by investigating the influence of financial socialisation agents on the financial literacy levels of young professionals in the financial industry specifically. The proposed conceptual model of the study may be useful in determining the influence of financial socialisation agents on financial literacy in the future. The study also advance research on financial socialisation and financial literacy, specifically among youth as there exist no studies that investigate the influence of financial socialisation on the financial literacy levels of young professionals in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Saayman, Michelle
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- Social aspects -- South Africa , Financial literacy -- South Africa Finance, Personal -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/43001 , vital:36723
- Description: This study is focused on the levels of financial literacy of young professionals because they are exiting university with high levels of debt and may have low levels of financial literacy as students. These young professionals enter the workforce and face complex financial decisions where they are expected to be able to make independent and sound financial decisions. They have access to all types of financial products and services and have increased levels of household debt as well as the need to fund an ageing population, such as their parents. The main objective of this study was to investigate the influence financial socialisation agents have on the financial literacy levels of young professionals. The financial socialisation agents that are investigated are parents, peers, teachers and employers. These financial socialisation agents use various financial socialisation mechanisms to influence the financial literacy of young professionals. The financial socialisation mechanisms that were identified are teaching practices, modelling of financial behaviour and pocket money (employed by parents), peer communication (employed by peers), and financial instruction (employed by both teachers and employers). An extensive literature review on financial socialisation and financial literacy was conducted. This led to the development of a conceptual framework that is tested empirically. In order to test the conceptual model for the study, a quantitative research approach was adopted. Non-probability snowball and convenience sampling was used to target respondents of the study. A total of 300 questionnaires were distributed to employees in the financial industry between the ages of 20 and 35. Of the 300 questionnaires distributed in the Nelson Mandela Bay, 263 were returned and usable, resulting in a response rate of 88 percent. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to test the empirical data, and included the Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient and a multiple regression analysis. The results showed that while many respondents (42%) scored between 61 and 80 percent for the questions on financial knowledge. Only 15 percent of respondents scored higher for financial knowledge, namely between 81 and 100 percent. In terms of validity and reliability, most of the factors tested are retained; only subjective financial knowledge and financial attitude are disregarded for further analysis. The descriptive statistics showed that respondents scored a mean of 2.649 for the statements measuring educational allowance, a mean of 2.041 for the statements that measure teaching practices that includes modelling of behaviour, and 59 percent of respondents indicated that the statements that measure teaching practices that include modelling of behaviour was true; only 24 percent of respondents believe the statements regarding peer communication to be true, with the other respondents (42%) being neutral. Most of the respondents believe the statements regarding financial instruction to be true, both for financial instruction from teachers (61%) and employers (46%), and the majority (70%) of respondents believe the factor financial behaviour to be true. Only one hypotheses (H4) was accepted: There was a significant positive relationship between employers and financial literacy. The other three hypotheses (H1, H2 and H3) were rejected. H1 proposed that a significant positive relationship exists between parents and financial literacy, H2 that a significant positive relationship between peers and financial literacy exists, and H3 that a significant positive relationship between teachers and financial literacy exists. This mean that other financial socialisation agents, namely, parents, peers and teachers, did not influence financial literacy. The results show that the mechanism employed by employers, financial instruction, has a significant influence on the objective financial knowledge and financial behaviour of young professionals. Based on the results above, it is recommended that South Africa should prioritise the financial literacy of its youth. Policymakers can do this by providing young adults with financial literacy courses and require employers to provide these courses to their employees. The workshops offered by employers to the respondents of the study resulted in these respondents having higher levels of financial literacy, as H4 proposed and was supported in the results. Therefore, employers should consider providing workshops as part of their benefit package to their employees. These workshops can be about various financial matters, such as retirement planning, debt management, savings and investments, the importance of insurance and assurance, as well as a medical aid and how to apply for credit, such as home loans, credit cards and vehicle assistance. Other options that employers can consider is sending informative emails on a regular basis to their employees. Parents should also have access to financial literacy courses because the study found that parents’ teaching practices, which includes modelling of behaviour, influence the financial behaviour of young professionals. Teachers, through financial instruction, also influence the financial behaviour of young professionals. Therefore, teachers and other educators or education institutions should consider offering formal financial instruction, either on the internet, through financial articles or workshops about budgeting, record keeping of expenses, cost of credit, savings and inflation. Therefore in conclusion, it is important that policymakers and employers consider this research and provide young professionals with the necessary resources to help them make complex financial decisions. This study has contributed to literature by investigating the influence of financial socialisation agents on the financial literacy levels of young professionals in the financial industry specifically. The proposed conceptual model of the study may be useful in determining the influence of financial socialisation agents on financial literacy in the future. The study also advance research on financial socialisation and financial literacy, specifically among youth as there exist no studies that investigate the influence of financial socialisation on the financial literacy levels of young professionals in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The influence of the real business cycle shocks on aggregate demand in South Africa
- Authors: Mesatywa, Msa Pumelela
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Business cycles -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa Macroeconomics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/42407 , vital:36653
- Description: The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of the real business cycle shocks on aggregate demand in South Africa. These shocks consist of government expenditure, oil prices, technology (proxied by research and development), labour productivity, and droughts. The theoretical framework is presented consisting of the literature review and empirical review. The Neo-classical, Keynesian and Structuralist theories are explained in the literature review. Furthermore, the empirical section consists of previous studies from developed and developing countries, and as well as studies conducted in South Africa based on the topic of this study. The Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model approach was used to find the influence between economic growth, government expenditures, oil prices, technology shock (proxy research and development), labour productivity and droughts in South Africae using quarterly data from 1995 to 2017. The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter was used to extract the shocks and to test their influence on economic growth. The NARDL technique uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long run relationship of the variables as opposed to other models. The NARDL technique is also suitable to use to test co-integration and does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order. The results from the NARDL bounds test showed that there is a long run relationship for government expenditure, oil prices, technology, labour productivity and droughts. Furthermore, the labour productivity shock tends out to be the larger shock affecting South Africa’s economy. This study will provide policy recommendations on how to improve and increase labour productivity in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Mesatywa, Msa Pumelela
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Business cycles -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa Macroeconomics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/42407 , vital:36653
- Description: The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of the real business cycle shocks on aggregate demand in South Africa. These shocks consist of government expenditure, oil prices, technology (proxied by research and development), labour productivity, and droughts. The theoretical framework is presented consisting of the literature review and empirical review. The Neo-classical, Keynesian and Structuralist theories are explained in the literature review. Furthermore, the empirical section consists of previous studies from developed and developing countries, and as well as studies conducted in South Africa based on the topic of this study. The Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model approach was used to find the influence between economic growth, government expenditures, oil prices, technology shock (proxy research and development), labour productivity and droughts in South Africae using quarterly data from 1995 to 2017. The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter was used to extract the shocks and to test their influence on economic growth. The NARDL technique uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long run relationship of the variables as opposed to other models. The NARDL technique is also suitable to use to test co-integration and does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order. The results from the NARDL bounds test showed that there is a long run relationship for government expenditure, oil prices, technology, labour productivity and droughts. Furthermore, the labour productivity shock tends out to be the larger shock affecting South Africa’s economy. This study will provide policy recommendations on how to improve and increase labour productivity in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The interaction between oil price shocks, currency volatility and stock market prices: evidence from South Africa
- Authors: Tshivhase, Mikovhe
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Petroleum products -- Prices , Accounting and price fluctuations , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Stock exchanges , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/43834 , vital:37051
- Description: Crude oil is an essential and strategic commodity in modern economies. Therefore, energy price fluctuations have the potential of affecting the economic welfare of a country. For instance, they have the potential to undermine the government’s attainment of its economic growth targets (National Treasury, 2016:2). The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) also considers oil price movements to be one of the major threats to currency volatility and the continued attainment of its inflation targets of about (3-6, per cent), as evidenced by numerous recent statements by its monetary policy committee (SARB, 2016:5-13). This study used co-integration tests to investigate the interaction between oil price shocks, exchange rates and stock market prices in South Africa over the period 1 January 2011 to 1 April 2018. The study employed the Johansen co-integration test. The results found no long run co-integration between oil prices, exchange rate and stock market prices. Therefore, this study adopted the VAR model for causality tests. Using the VAR model, this study found the existence of a unidirectional causality between stock prices and oil prices, with stock prices leading the oil prices changes. The all share index, resources and financials index were found to be significant variables to explain oil prices. This result is consistent with the business cycle view, which states that oil price fluctuations are mainly driven by demand factors. Furthermore, strong world output growth trends especially in emerging markets, could give rise to an upward surge in oil prices. The study also found that there is a weak correlation between stock price and exchange rate in South Africa. This is consistent with the asset approach. The findings of this study add to the already largely debated theories that seek to explain the relationship between the oil prices, exchange rates and stock market prices. The recommendation of this research is that, policy makers, researchers and investment bankers or fund managers who have interest or trade these financial instruments, may have to consider the role of stock market prices in the various sectors of the economy in their models for forecasting the path of the oil prices and the Rand/US Dollar exchange rate trend.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Tshivhase, Mikovhe
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Petroleum products -- Prices , Accounting and price fluctuations , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Stock exchanges , Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/43834 , vital:37051
- Description: Crude oil is an essential and strategic commodity in modern economies. Therefore, energy price fluctuations have the potential of affecting the economic welfare of a country. For instance, they have the potential to undermine the government’s attainment of its economic growth targets (National Treasury, 2016:2). The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) also considers oil price movements to be one of the major threats to currency volatility and the continued attainment of its inflation targets of about (3-6, per cent), as evidenced by numerous recent statements by its monetary policy committee (SARB, 2016:5-13). This study used co-integration tests to investigate the interaction between oil price shocks, exchange rates and stock market prices in South Africa over the period 1 January 2011 to 1 April 2018. The study employed the Johansen co-integration test. The results found no long run co-integration between oil prices, exchange rate and stock market prices. Therefore, this study adopted the VAR model for causality tests. Using the VAR model, this study found the existence of a unidirectional causality between stock prices and oil prices, with stock prices leading the oil prices changes. The all share index, resources and financials index were found to be significant variables to explain oil prices. This result is consistent with the business cycle view, which states that oil price fluctuations are mainly driven by demand factors. Furthermore, strong world output growth trends especially in emerging markets, could give rise to an upward surge in oil prices. The study also found that there is a weak correlation between stock price and exchange rate in South Africa. This is consistent with the asset approach. The findings of this study add to the already largely debated theories that seek to explain the relationship between the oil prices, exchange rates and stock market prices. The recommendation of this research is that, policy makers, researchers and investment bankers or fund managers who have interest or trade these financial instruments, may have to consider the role of stock market prices in the various sectors of the economy in their models for forecasting the path of the oil prices and the Rand/US Dollar exchange rate trend.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The relationship between cultural intelligence and cross-cultural psychological capital amongst expatriates
- Authors: Lamont, Mia Adri
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Cultural intelligence , Business anthropology Management -- Cross-cultural studies Corporate culture Work environment
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40467 , vital:36168
- Description: This study explored the relationship between Cross-cultural (CC) PsyCap and Cultural Intelligence (CQ) amongst expatriates. The literature review revealed preliminary relationships between the two constructs and illuminated the need to broaden and extend current research to expatriates specifically. The study followed a quantitative research design in the form of non-experimental, cross-sectional research using convenience and snowball sampling. A composite questionnaire comprising the CC PsyCap scale and Cultural Intelligence Scale (CQS) was used to measure CC PsyCap and CQ levels. This self-report measure was distributed via various social media platforms (N=102). Overall, the measurement models revealed high reliability in the present study. Although the modified hope subscale did not appear to be suited to the expatriate sample in the present study, confirmatory factor analysis revealed acceptable validity for both instruments overall. Significant differences were found in the means of CC PsyCap and CQ between demographic groups. Relationships between the constructs were tested through correlation-and regression analyses and several significant positive relationships were found between the constructs and their dimensions. Two of the strongest relationships found were between CC self-efficacy and CQ and between motivational CQ and CC PsyCap. Further, CC PsyCap was shown to account for a part of the variance in CQ and vice versa. This research adds to insights gained from the previously validated cross-cultural PsyCap measure and studies on the relationships between the two constructs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Lamont, Mia Adri
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Cultural intelligence , Business anthropology Management -- Cross-cultural studies Corporate culture Work environment
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40467 , vital:36168
- Description: This study explored the relationship between Cross-cultural (CC) PsyCap and Cultural Intelligence (CQ) amongst expatriates. The literature review revealed preliminary relationships between the two constructs and illuminated the need to broaden and extend current research to expatriates specifically. The study followed a quantitative research design in the form of non-experimental, cross-sectional research using convenience and snowball sampling. A composite questionnaire comprising the CC PsyCap scale and Cultural Intelligence Scale (CQS) was used to measure CC PsyCap and CQ levels. This self-report measure was distributed via various social media platforms (N=102). Overall, the measurement models revealed high reliability in the present study. Although the modified hope subscale did not appear to be suited to the expatriate sample in the present study, confirmatory factor analysis revealed acceptable validity for both instruments overall. Significant differences were found in the means of CC PsyCap and CQ between demographic groups. Relationships between the constructs were tested through correlation-and regression analyses and several significant positive relationships were found between the constructs and their dimensions. Two of the strongest relationships found were between CC self-efficacy and CQ and between motivational CQ and CC PsyCap. Further, CC PsyCap was shown to account for a part of the variance in CQ and vice versa. This research adds to insights gained from the previously validated cross-cultural PsyCap measure and studies on the relationships between the two constructs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The relationship between employee wellness and gratitude
- Authors: Jordaan, Chrizelle
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Employee health promotion -- South Africa , Work environment -- Psychological aspects Gratitude Psychology, Industrial
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39984 , vital:35636
- Description: A lack of research studies and available literature on the relationship between employee wellness and gratitude revealed enormous potential for further exploration and investigation, especially within a South African context. This is a relatively new field with limited literature and research evidence available. From the commencement of the research it was evident that there is possibility to successfully research if a relationship between employee wellness and gratitude exists, which formed the primary objective of the current study. The current study therefore aims to contribute to the existing body of knowledge regarding the possible relationship that exists between employee wellness and gratitude within South African organisations. The researcher utilised a quantitative research technique by making use of a composite questionnaire measuring employee wellness and gratitude respectively. The results were then analysed in an attempt to establish if a relationship exists between employee wellness and gratitude, based on the responses gathered from the research population. The research sample consisted of 121 employees working in the waste collection industry. A combination of the Mental Health Continuum – Short Form, Gratitude Questionnaire (6-item form) as well as a demographic variable information page was utilised to gather data for the current study. The results indicated that significant findings between the demographic variables and the individual constructs respectively, however, the relationship between the dimensions of employee wellness and gratitude was lower than expected. Based on the results obtained within this study, it was concluded that a small relationship exists between employee wellness and gratitude. Chapter 5 includes a discussion on the recommendations for both the organisation as well as future researchers.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Jordaan, Chrizelle
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Employee health promotion -- South Africa , Work environment -- Psychological aspects Gratitude Psychology, Industrial
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/39984 , vital:35636
- Description: A lack of research studies and available literature on the relationship between employee wellness and gratitude revealed enormous potential for further exploration and investigation, especially within a South African context. This is a relatively new field with limited literature and research evidence available. From the commencement of the research it was evident that there is possibility to successfully research if a relationship between employee wellness and gratitude exists, which formed the primary objective of the current study. The current study therefore aims to contribute to the existing body of knowledge regarding the possible relationship that exists between employee wellness and gratitude within South African organisations. The researcher utilised a quantitative research technique by making use of a composite questionnaire measuring employee wellness and gratitude respectively. The results were then analysed in an attempt to establish if a relationship exists between employee wellness and gratitude, based on the responses gathered from the research population. The research sample consisted of 121 employees working in the waste collection industry. A combination of the Mental Health Continuum – Short Form, Gratitude Questionnaire (6-item form) as well as a demographic variable information page was utilised to gather data for the current study. The results indicated that significant findings between the demographic variables and the individual constructs respectively, however, the relationship between the dimensions of employee wellness and gratitude was lower than expected. Based on the results obtained within this study, it was concluded that a small relationship exists between employee wellness and gratitude. Chapter 5 includes a discussion on the recommendations for both the organisation as well as future researchers.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019